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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  MO- PPP: Trump +3
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Author Topic: MO- PPP: Trump +3  (Read 1786 times)
Fargobison
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« on: August 17, 2016, 10:35:51 am »

Trump 45
Clinton 42

http://www.protectmofamilies.com/images/15290/Aug2016MissouriPresidentResultsPPP_PMF.pdf
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: August 17, 2016, 10:36:38 am »

Sponsor is a pro-union org.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #2 on: August 17, 2016, 10:39:22 am »

Looks like they only asked a few questions though... and the Demos are rather R leaning.
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Peters/Daines more vulnerable than Shaheen/Ernst
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« Reply #3 on: August 17, 2016, 10:39:25 am »

MO is fool's gold for Democrats.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: August 17, 2016, 10:41:11 am »

Nice topline obviously, but why wouldn't they ask gubernatorial and Senate races? If Trump is only +3 that could be bad news for Blunt.
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badgate
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« Reply #5 on: August 17, 2016, 10:41:39 am »
« Edited: August 17, 2016, 02:49:46 pm by badgate »

If it's between MO and TX, I say Texas.
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dspNY
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« Reply #6 on: August 17, 2016, 10:46:23 am »

Fits almost perfectly with the 538 Nowcast so this is probably the state of the race in MO
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NV less likely to flip than FL/WI
xingkerui
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« Reply #7 on: August 17, 2016, 10:47:25 am »

Things must be going well for Koster, if this is the case. It's telling that Hillary is winning Florida by more than Trump is winning Missouri, lol.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #8 on: August 17, 2016, 10:49:01 am »

Man, I wish they would have polled the Senate race (and Governor too).  If it's competitive, a Clinton investment in the state would be worthwhile, even if there are juicier targets like Georgia.

Trump +3 sounds about right, and they even got a decently Repub friendly sample.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #9 on: August 17, 2016, 10:58:20 am »

Shes only winning women by 2 in this and there are more undecided women. But that probably still leaves it at about trump 2.
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Desroko
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« Reply #10 on: August 17, 2016, 10:59:06 am »

MO is fool's gold for Democrats.

Almost certainly. The real question is whether Trump can be baited into spending on KC and STL. Neither market is cheap.
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Castro
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« Reply #11 on: August 17, 2016, 11:02:50 am »

MO is fool's gold for Democrats.

Probably, though given a large enough national margin who knows what could happen. Regardless Clinton should only pay attention here to help out the Senate and Governor races.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #12 on: August 17, 2016, 11:03:45 am »

Always be leery of these PPP polls that are done for an advocacy group. It's not the same poll that PPP would normally do.  There would be other questions that PPP would have ran if it was their own poll.
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LLR
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« Reply #13 on: August 17, 2016, 11:04:52 am »

If nothing else, it bears very well for Koster.
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darthpi
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« Reply #14 on: August 17, 2016, 11:47:41 am »

Another poll that seems roughly consistent with a 7 or 8 point lead nationally for Hillary. I'll take it.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #15 on: August 17, 2016, 01:00:07 pm »

Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #16 on: August 17, 2016, 01:26:54 pm »

Possibly attainable by Clinton .... especially if trump's new team makes his campaign more of a mockery than it was yesterday.
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Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark
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« Reply #17 on: August 17, 2016, 01:27:56 pm »

Trump seems to have a very big problem with these whites that have a college degree, who voted for Mitt four years ago. That's bringing him down in many solid red states.

This isn't looking good.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #18 on: August 17, 2016, 02:26:57 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.
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LLR
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« Reply #19 on: August 17, 2016, 02:30:12 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious
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Ebsy
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« Reply #20 on: August 17, 2016, 02:31:37 pm »

PPP has too good of a reputation to skew their polls for their clients.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #21 on: August 17, 2016, 02:34:53 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #22 on: August 17, 2016, 02:42:54 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no. 
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darthpi
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« Reply #23 on: August 17, 2016, 02:50:47 pm »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.

It's worth considering that possibility, but the fact that it is consistent with the last two polls from Missouri makes me think that there is a decent chance that it is at least close to correct.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #24 on: August 17, 2016, 03:33:37 pm »
« Edited: August 17, 2016, 03:35:24 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Democrats paid PPP to skew this for them. Enough said.

Legitimately cannot tel if you're being serious

This poll was paid for by a pro-union group, it's not normal PPP. That makes it an internal poll, which is basically 100% guranteed to be at least slightly skewed toward what the client wants to see. If the client sees what they want, they are more likely to hire the pollster again, so the pollster skews the poll sample or doesn't push undecideds, or both, to satisfy the client.
No, just no.  
Of course PPP or any other pollsters does not skew the polls, but there is always a "but"...

The real problem with such polls that it is [usually] up to client to publish the poll or not. And of course, the client is much more likely to let publish those polls that look good for him than those that don't. That's why those polls are more often outliers than "regular" polls.

So it depends on pollsters policy.
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