IN-Monmouth: Bayh +7

[heatcharger]

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_IN_081716/

Bayh - 48%
Young - 41%

Conducted August 13-16. 403 LV.

The only bright spot of this poll. Looks like Indiana still likes Bayh.

[Xing]

Finally, a real poll of this race. Looks like Bayh is the favorite, though he's not guaranteed to win.

[Bismarck]

This makes much more sense than the landslide internals. Both candidates have been on TV and almost all negative. I think Young would be smart to do some positive spots for himself on TV. He does have positive ones that show up on half the YouTube videos I watch.

[windjammer]

Keep in mind this poll has Clinton down 11. She's obviously not going to lose IN by a so big margin, so this is really good news for Bayh, who is likely leading in double digits right now, like 10-15 points.

[heatcharger]

Wow, looks like Young can win this thing if he runs a strong campaign. Keep attacking Bayh 24/7 but also air some positive ads.

Bayh's favorables are +27, and +30 with independents, where most of the ticket-splitting is going on.

[Bismarck]

Keep in mind this poll has Clinton down 11. She's obviously not going to lose IN by a so big margin, so this is really good news for Bayh, who is likely leading in double digits right now, like 10-15 points.

Don't start unskewing the polls. Romney won by ten. Indiana has the potential to be a state that trends Trump because of all the redneck democrats in southern Indiana, and even suburbanites turned off by him will still probably vote Young and definatly Holcomb.

[F_S_USATN]

I have a feeling if Stutzman was down 7 we would be hearing alot more about this race

[windjammer]

Keep in mind this poll has Clinton down 11. She's obviously not going to lose IN by a so big margin, so this is really good news for Bayh, who is likely leading in double digits right now, like 10-15 points.

Don't start unskewing the polls. Romney won by ten. Indiana has the potential to be a state that trends Trump because of all the redneck democrats in southern Indiana, and even suburbanites turned off by him will still probably vote Young and definatly Holcomb.

There is no potential at all. Romney won the state by 12 points, there is no way Trump could do as well than him while Trump is trailing Clinton nationally by more than 8 points (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton)

[swf541]

Some oddities with this poll rather small sample + they weighted for "voting history" which seems like something that could skew things a bit.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Keep in mind this poll has Clinton down 11. She's obviously not going to lose IN by a so big margin, so this is really good news for Bayh, who is likely leading in double digits right now, like 10-15 points.

Don't start unskewing the polls. Romney won by ten. Indiana has the potential to be a state that trends Trump because of all the redneck democrats in southern Indiana, and even suburbanites turned off by him will still probably vote Young and definatly Holcomb.

There is no potential at all. Romney won the state by 12 points, there is no way Trump could do as well than him while Trump is trailing Clinton nationally by more than 8 points (http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton)

There isn't? Even in elections with a clear nationwide shift there tend to be a few states that swing towards the party doing worse overall (the inland South in 2008, various Mid-Atlantic states and the lower Mississippi in 2012). Based on what I know about Indiana, I don't think it'll be one of those states in 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised if it at least trends Republican.

[Heisenberg]

Wow, looks like Young can win this thing if he runs a strong campaign. Keep attacking Bayh 24/7 but also air some positive ads.

Bayh's favorables are +27, and +30 with independents, where most of the ticket-splitting is going on.

Exaclty, which is why Young needs to rebrand him and attack him relentlessly. Thank God Stutzman lost the primary.

I'm really glad Stutzman lost. Young (and the NRSC) need to pound Bayh hard (attack him on Obamacare, TARP, etc.) and rebrand him as a Washington insider (bring up residence). He also needs to air some positives focusing on his family, his service in the Marines, and helping his parents' small business. Young can still win, this poll is good news.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Bayh never got less than 60% in his previous two elections for Senate. The fact that he is at 48% illustrates that times have indeed changed like I said before.

This will be one of the most expensive and most intense races in the country.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Finally, an actual poll. Proof that internals are always skewed to look good for the client so that the pollster doesn't lose a client.

This is a Lean D race, no more, no less.

[Ebsy]

D+1.

[Gass3268]

D+1.

[Torie]

I would make this one a tossup, assuming Young is a competent candidate, myself. The fundamentals are just too Pub to do otherwise.

[Virginiá]

Finally, an actual poll. Proof that internals are always skewed to look good for the client so that the pollster doesn't lose a client.

This is a Lean D race, no more, no less.

Really Wulfric? Exactly how low is your burden of proof? What it "proves" more is that parties like to purposefully release skewed polls to screw with their opponents. If everyone assumes internal polls are skewed to satisfy the customers, then the customer would also know that and it would make it a pointless endeavor. It doesn't take some business guru to see that.

[IceSpear]

The Dem internals were obviously inflated, but judging from the party ID this one may be somewhat inflated in the other direction.

[Gass3268]

The Dem internals were obviously inflated, but judging from the party ID this one may be somewhat inflated in the other direction.

Yeah, I would guess Bayh is probably up by around 10-11 points.