IA/CO/VA-Quinnipiac: Clinton +3/+2 in IA, +10/+8 in CO, +12/+11 in VA

[Maxwell]

lol Trump can't even pull close in a Quinnipiac Colorado poll. Sad!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Why is this happening in Iowa of all places? Most of Iowa's younger voters are educated/have college degrees. Is it still residual bad feelings from the primary/caucus?

As a college student at Iowa State, I can attest that there is basically no one young there who is all that enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton. Basically every D who isn't a professor caucused for Sanders, even people who don't think of Clinton all that negatively. Rubio had a plurality among R's, with significant pockets of support for Trump, Cruz, and Paul.

[NOVA Green]

Why do CO and VA keep getting polled together by various polling outlets? FOX, Marist, and now Quinnipiac have had this pattern. Not that I have a problem with it, only further highlights Trump's glaring issue with college-educated whites.

I like how Marist essentially has the Rust Belt 3 (Iowa, Ohio, & Pennsylvania) and the Sun Belt 4 (Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, & Virginia).

This may be the first time I've seen Iowa being described as "Rust Belt."

We used to prefer the term "Heartlands" back when I lived in the industrial MidWest.

[IceSpear]

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

agreed. I would be surprised if both of those candidates retained even a third of what they're polling at now.

I agree, but if it didn't happen, would that feel a bit awkward for you? It would be like you sat in the old broken down unmoving libertarian train with hobos for years, only to leave just as it got renovations and sped off from the station.

[Maxwell]

lol Trump can't even pull close in a Quinnipiac Colorado poll. Sad!

This poll = likely voters
QU polls in the past = registered voters

wouldn't that make the effect even more dramatic though? generally Republicans gain more among likely voters.

unless, of course, we are facing historic hispanic turnout.

[NOVA Green]

Trump is narrowly winning younger voters in Iowa, while Clinton is winning older voters by a slightly larger margin. That's different from almost every other state I've seen, but this is the second poll that has shown this in Iowa.

In Virginia, they are actually tied with folks in military households. That is awful news for Trump in the Hampton Roads area. Virginia Beach could actually flip to Democrats.

Why is this happening in Iowa of all places? Most of Iowa's younger voters are educated/have college degrees. Is it still residual bad feelings from the primary/caucus?

As a college student at Iowa State, I can attest that there is basically no one young there who is all that enthusiastic for Hillary Clinton. Basically every D who isn't a professor caucused for Sanders, even people who don't think of Clinton all that negatively. Rubio had a plurality among R's, with significant pockets of support for Trump, Cruz, and Paul.

Certainly fits with the profile of largest colleges/universities in Iowa during the Democratic Primaries:

1.) University of Iowa-  (31k students). Johnson County (60-40 Bernie)
2.) Iowa State University- (36k students). Story County (60-40 Bernie)
3.) Des Moines Area Community College- (25k+ students in six campuses). Polk, Boone, Carroll, Jasper, Des Moines). Mixed voting results.
4.) Kirkwood Community College- (26.5k students). Multiple campuses. Main campus Linn County (52-48 Bernie)
5.) University of Northern Iowa- (12.7k students). Black Hawk County (53-47 Bernie).

Edited: Updated to reflect latest enrollment figures through the labyrinth of the World Wide Web

[indietraveler]

More polls showing VA and CO are out of reach at this point.

Hillary needs Bernie in IA to help max out the college vote, maybe Obama too (though he has below average approval here).

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

[NOVA Green]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

Damn!!!!

I know that Iowa has a ton of state and private colleges and universities and well-funded educational system, but for a relatively small population state, these are actually very impressive numbers.

Edit: Was trying to demonstrate large college populations with caucus results, so pulled some old data from the internet (Go figure. )

[indietraveler]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

[Associate Justice PiT]

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

     Considering who the other options are, I would not be so sure of that.

[NOVA Green]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

Thanks for the feedback... attempted to update enrollment numbers based upon what I could find.

Now, the more fundamental question (For our resident Iowa residents, experts, students), is where are voters <35 and college-educated voters at in terms of the current Presidential Election?

Is this current poll simply an outlier on the cross-tabs, or for some reason are younger voters in Iowa either leaning narrowly towards Trump, or is there a massive residual "Bernie or Bust" active movement among his core supporters in this particular state?

[indietraveler]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

Thanks for the feedback... attempted to update enrollment numbers based upon what I could find.

Now, the more fundamental question (For our resident Iowa residents, experts, students), is where are voters <35 and college-educated voters at in terms of the current Presidential Election?

Is this current poll simply an outlier on the cross-tabs, or for some reason are younger voters in Iowa either leaning narrowly towards Trump, or is there a massive residual "Bernie or Bust" active movement among his core supporters in this particular state?

Thanks for the updated numbers. While I am surprised that Trump is leading Clinton among younger voters in the state (if future polls hold), I think that the % of Trump supporters here would be higher than what some of you expect among college voters. I have a lot of interaction with UI students (and I would fit in the "young voter" category being late 20s) and while it's obvious Clinton will have a sizable margin here, I also see more Trump supporters around than you might think for a college town. A lot of in-state students come from smaller communities more likely to be conservative.

I don't have the break down or any numbers here, but ISU is known for their ag programs and attract a lot of farm kids who go for ag related degrees. ISU overall is less liberal than UI. That being said, UI has more international students and out of state students (noticeable population from Chicago+suburbs) who either can't vote or might be voting in their home state. Several students I have interacted with caucused for Bernie, but consider themselves democrat and would support whoever the D nominee is. The "Bernie or bust" kids I run into are some of the most annoying around. I think this group is small though and won't have an impact.

Young voters across the state are probably more conservative than young voters in other swing states. I hate making statements like this, but it's more likely that young liberal in-state college students who go to college anywhere in Iowa move to an urban out of state area upon graduation. Students who stick around or move back to their home communities are more likely to be conservative, making young voters more conservative overall here.

I know more students than I can count that are from the state and after graduation move to Chicago or Denver. All the ones I can think of now at the very minimum would vote democrat just to stop Trump even if they don't care for Clinton.

[Mehmentum]

lol Trump can't even pull close in a Quinnipiac Colorado poll. Sad!

This poll = likely voters
QU polls in the past = registered voters

wouldn't that make the effect even more dramatic though? generally Republicans gain more among likely voters.

unless, of course, we are facing historic hispanic turnout.

Clinton actually does better among LVs than RVs.  This is probably because college educated whites are very high turnout. 

In addition, the switch over to LVs often allows pollsters to refine or correct their sampling, which definitely seems to have happened with Quinnipiac. 

[Gass3268]

Y

Because

[Landslide Lyndon]

Iowa
Clinton - 47%
Trump - 44%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 12%
Stein - 3%

Colorado
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 39%

Clinton - 41%
Trump - 33%
Johnson - 16%
Stein - 7%

Virginia
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%

Clinton - 45%
Trump - 34%
Johnson - 11%
Stein - 5%

http://www.qu.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2373

These numbers should diminish a bit as we approach election day.

     Considering who the other options are, I would not be so sure of that.

Just like Johnson was polling 6% in Ohio in October 2012 and went on to take 0,8% on election day.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

^^Those are probably old enrollment numbers for Iowa State. It was 36,001 (actual number) as of a year ago.

All of those numbers look old by at least a few years. I know UI has been 30k plus the last few years minimum. I think Kirkwood is also higher and spans not only Linn county (main campus), but a sizable Johnson county campus and locations all over the counties surrounding Linn and Johnson.

I can't speak for anyone else, but the reason why I'm at Iowa State is because the net cost is $5k cheaper than the U of M. Obviously I like the campus and academic programs, people, and etc., but cost was the deciding factor between the two schools. I do know that statistically the number of students from my HS who go to college in Iowa is significant.

Regarding voting, the state does not care if you sign up to vote there for four years or send an absentee ballot to your home state. There are some states that try to shame you into not registering there, but Iowa is not one of them. I personally vote down there since MN is not a swing state. Braley/Branstad in 2014, likely Hillary/Grassley this year.

[Eraserhead]

It's interesting how close Iowa has remained with Trump crashing almost everywhere else.

[PikaTROD]

In a world where Johnson actually has decent numbers.