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Author Topic: NV-Suffolk: Clinton +2  (Read 1687 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 18, 2016, 10:22:25 am »

http://www.ktnv.com/news/ralston/poll-presidential-senate-races-in-nevada-are-dead-heats

Clinton - 44%
Trump - 42%
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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 10:29:34 am »

OK, something is definitely up here.  I think Clinton will still win NV, but we have very consistent data for a closer race than 2012.

Voters without a college degree are breaking heavily for Trump.
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 10:31:57 am »

Democrats consistently underpoll in Nevada because pollsters ignore/under-sample Latino voters. In a year where Trump is sending Latinos to register in droves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dem overperformance is bigger than it has been in the past few cycles.

Obama overperformed the RCP average by 6 and 4 points (2008, 2012), Berkley overperformed her average by 3 points, and Reid by 8.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 10:34:00 am »

Democrats consistently underpoll in Nevada because pollsters ignore/under-sample Latino voters. In a year where Trump is sending Latinos to register in droves, I wouldn't be surprised if the Dem overperformance is bigger than it has been in the past few cycles.

Obama overperformed the RCP average by 6 and 4 points (2008, 2012), Berkley overperformed her average by 3 points, and Reid by 8.

Yup. You'd think Nevada pollsters would learn by now to include Spanish interviews.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 10:34:42 am »

While I still think this is underestimating Clinton, it should be bigger given the national spread. Like Iowa, the non-college white vote is definitely holding down Clinton's margin. However, there are only so many of those types of people, and I would imagine they are already maxed out for Trump at this point.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 10:35:27 am »

The lower percentage of voters with a college degree is keeping the state closer than Colorado, although Clinton would almost definitely win Nevada by more than 2 in an election held today. 

Remember that the final RCP average for Nevada in 2012 was Obama +2.8, with no pollster having Obama with a lead bigger than 4.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 10:40:22 am »

The lower percentage of voters with a college degree is keeping the state closer than Colorado, although Clinton would almost definitely win Nevada by more than 2 in an election held today. 

Remember that the final RCP average for Nevada in 2012 was Obama +2.8, with no pollster having Obama with a lead bigger than 4.

Correct. Nevada unskewing actually makes sense because Democrats have consistently outperformed polling expectations, and the Hispanic effect is real. Sandoval in 2014 was an anomaly, not the new normal in the state in terms of polling.
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 10:50:41 am »

This kind of polling is consistent with 2012. Polls show a close race, but I'd bet quite a bit of money that it won't be that close. If this poll says "interviews conducted in English and Spanish, then we'll talk.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2016, 10:51:55 am »

The lower percentage of voters with a college degree is keeping the state closer than Colorado, although Clinton would almost definitely win Nevada by more than 2 in an election held today.  

Remember that the final RCP average for Nevada in 2012 was Obama +2.8, with no pollster having Obama with a lead bigger than 4.

Correct. Nevada unskewing actually makes sense because Democrats have consistently outperformed polling expectations, and the Hispanic effect is real. Sandoval in 2014 was an anomaly, not the new normal in the state in terms of polling.

Yeah if it was just one cycle, I wouldn't make such assumptions about Democratic support, but it's been a pretty consistent factor in presidential cycles since 2004.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2016, 12:51:07 pm by john cage bubblegum »Logged
Devils30
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2016, 10:52:07 am »

Trump can do better than Romney with working class whites here but he'll lose college whites who went 57% Romney. I just don't see this state being as close as polls, not at 40% non white. If Clinton wins by 11 on Election Day after being up 4 no ome should be stunned.
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2016, 10:55:50 am »

Even though this poll is probably underestimates Clinton, it might be an indication (also see Monmouth Indiana poll), that the race have tightened (nationally) a bit. From Clinton up 7-8 pps to 6-7 or probably even 5-6 pps.
But I'l wait for nationall polls from more respectful pollsters such as ABC, Monmouth, SurveyUSA etc...
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2016, 10:57:23 am »

Democrats outperform Republicans on election day in competitive races by 5 points on average. Obama out performed in 08 by 6 points and in 12 by 4 points. Reid over performed Angle by 7 points. Berkley over performed Heller by 3 points.
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2016, 11:01:10 am »

Democrats outperform Republicans on election day in competitive races by 5 points on average. Obama out performed in 08 by 6 points and in 12 by 4 points. Reid over performed Angle by 7 points. Berkley over performed Heller by 3 points.
Most Democratic nominees or just Obama?
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2016, 11:01:49 am »

Even though this poll is probably underestimates Clinton, it might be an indication (also see Monmouth Indiana poll), that the race have tightened (nationally) a bit. From Clinton up 7-8 pps to 6-7 or probably even 5-6 pps.
But I'l wait for nationall polls from more respectful pollsters such as ABC, Monmouth, SurveyUSA etc...

But that doesn't match the polling from Q in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia or Marist last week, or even Monmouth's poll this week from Florida.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2016, 11:03:00 am »

Democrats outperform Republicans on election day in competitive races by 5 points on average. Obama out performed in 08 by 6 points and in 12 by 4 points. Reid over performed Angle by 7 points. Berkley over performed Heller by 3 points.
Most Democratic nominees or just Obama?

I listed 3 different nominees.
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2016, 11:05:08 am »

Trump is keeping it close because despite losing Clark County by 13 points (49-36), he is winning Washoe by 3 (45-42) and the rurals by 46 (67-21).[...]

The poll (complete results below) actually could be said to have a sample that favors Democrats, with a 7-point Democratic edge (it’s 5 points in registration) and Hispanics as 23 percent of the electorate (which would exceed expectations but is not impossible).
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2016, 11:07:13 am »

Fave/unfave:

Obama: 53-44
Clinton: 44-50
Trump: 37-55

No way Trump wins with these numbers.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2016, 11:17:40 am »

Even though this poll is probably underestimates Clinton, it might be an indication (also see Monmouth Indiana poll), that the race have tightened (nationally) a bit. From Clinton up 7-8 pps to 6-7 or probably even 5-6 pps.
But I'l wait for nationall polls from more respectful pollsters such as ABC, Monmouth, SurveyUSA etc...

But that doesn't match the polling from Q in Colorado, Iowa, and Virginia or Marist last week, or even Monmouth's poll this week from Florida.
Q:s results were pretty much in line with Clinton up 6-7, but yes, I forgot about Florida poll; it showed really terrible numbers for Trump.
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2016, 12:52:01 pm »

CBS/Yougov polled Nevada between August 2nd and 5th, and had Clinton up 2.  This is consistent with Clinton's lead holding steady.
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2016, 01:15:09 pm »

Even with the caveat regarding underpolling of Democrats in Nevada, the polls are showing that Nevada is a closer race than Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Hillary will win in the end but that is an interesting change and could have implications in certain competitive congressional districts in California like CA-10.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #20 on: August 18, 2016, 02:18:58 pm »

Fave/unfave:

Obama: 53-44
Clinton: 44-50
Trump: 37-55

No way Trump wins with these numbers.

Probably not but isn't 37-55 relatively good for Trump?
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« Reply #21 on: August 18, 2016, 02:20:17 pm »

Even with the caveat regarding underpolling of Democrats in Nevada, the polls are showing that Nevada is a closer race than Colorado, Virginia and Pennsylvania. Hillary will win in the end but that is an interesting change and could have implications in certain competitive congressional districts in California like CA-10.

That's a good point. Trump is probably a great fit for Central Valley and rural NV/AZ whites.  I'd look more to the outer L.A. County and Orange/San Diego County R districts for surprise Dem pickup opportunities.

Even CA-25 has the sort of demographics Trump could be doing better with than Romney/Mccain. Places like Palmdale and Lancaster have a lot of working class whites along with minorities. Santa Clarita and Simi Valley aren't the most anti-Trump areas either. I would expect that swing towards Hillary more in places like Thousand Oaks, Calabasas, La Canada Flintridge etc.

In Orange County/SD County, Issa is obviously in some trouble. A sleeper race could be CA-39. I am fairly confident Hillary will win the district. Fortunately for the Republicans, Royce seems fairly solid with good outreach to the well-off Asian groups who constitute an important swing vote in that district.
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« Reply #22 on: August 18, 2016, 02:37:06 pm »

CBS/Yougov polled Nevada between August 2nd and 5th, and had Clinton up 2.  This is consistent with Clinton's lead holding steady.
You cannot directly compare polls from different polsters. Pew seems to confirm that race have tightened a bit.
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« Reply #23 on: August 18, 2016, 02:42:59 pm »

CBS/Yougov polled Nevada between August 2nd and 5th, and had Clinton up 2.  This is consistent with Clinton's lead holding steady.
You cannot directly compare polls from different polsters. Pew seems to confirm that race have tightened a bit.

You absolutely can.
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« Reply #24 on: August 18, 2016, 02:44:30 pm »

Even with the poll unskewing or underestimating of Democrats, people still can't deny something is different with Nevada this cycle, its at most a bellwether and at least only a slight advantage for Clinton.
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