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Author Topic: FOX5 Atlanta/Opinion Savvy GA Poll: HRC 43/Trump 43  (Read 3115 times)
F_S_USATN
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« on: August 18, 2016, 12:50:46 pm »

The toplines:

Clinton   43%(+2)
Trump   43%(-1)
Johnson   11% (+1)
Undecided   3%

http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/OS-GA-General-8.18.16.pdf

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Holmes
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« Reply #1 on: August 18, 2016, 12:53:59 pm »

They only polled one evening, last night...
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 18, 2016, 12:59:39 pm »

Inb4 "Georgia is fool's gold for Democrats"
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #3 on: August 18, 2016, 12:59:48 pm »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/766329883341516800

Clinton wins
Minorities
<45
Women
84% of Democrats
37% of Independents
Metro Atlanta

Trump wins
Whites 60.6% to 23% (+37.6)
>45
Men
76% of GOP
36% of Independents
Outside of Metro Atlanta

The Hispanic vote is more pro Clinton than the Black vote, which I haven't seen elsewhere.
« Last Edit: August 18, 2016, 01:04:43 pm by HillOfANight »Logged
Xing
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« Reply #4 on: August 18, 2016, 01:01:09 pm »

The cross-tabs are a bit screwy, since Hillary's doing better among 30-44 year-olds than 18-29 year-olds, and better among Latinos than African Americans. Still, it seems Georgia really could end up being a headache for Republicans this year.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: August 18, 2016, 01:02:39 pm »

New Poll: Georgia President by Opinion Savvy on 2016-08-17

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #6 on: August 18, 2016, 01:06:18 pm »

https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/766334432705994752
66% whites in this poll is too high
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #7 on: August 18, 2016, 01:07:33 pm »

If Johnson truly takes 11% of the vote, Georgia is a pure Tossup, maybe even tilt D. Don't think it will happen, though. But yeah, it's definitely more winnable for Democrats than Arizona.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #8 on: August 18, 2016, 01:07:39 pm »

Very nice poll for Clinton given how white the sample is at 66%.  The exit poll in 2008 had whites at 65% and even in 2014 it was at 64%.  I'd expect something like 62% this year.  

Trump is bleeding too much of the white vote to Johnson; he needs that to come home to win Georgia.
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Holmes
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« Reply #9 on: August 18, 2016, 01:11:07 pm »

Very nice poll for Clinton given how white the sample is at 66%.  The exit poll in 2008 had whites at 65% and even in 2014 it was at 64%.  I'd expect something like 62% this year.  

It was 61.39% in 2012. With the state's continued population growth and Trump pushing non-white voters to the polls, it should be lower. Clinton's team should be conducting voter registration drives, especially in the Atlanta suburbs, and getting them to the polls. If the white vote in Georgia falls below 60%, it won't be a good night for the GOP.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #10 on: August 18, 2016, 01:15:09 pm »

Very nice poll for Clinton given how white the sample is at 66%.  The exit poll in 2008 had whites at 65% and even in 2014 it was at 64%.  I'd expect something like 62% this year.  

It was 61.39% in 2012. With the state's continued population growth and Trump pushing non-white voters to the polls, it should be lower. Clinton's team should be conducting voter registration drives, especially in the Atlanta suburbs, and getting them to the polls. If the white vote in Georgia falls below 60%, it won't be a good night for the GOP.

Thanks for that information; I was just going by the network exit polls, which unfortunately we didn't get for Georgia in 2012.  So it should be more like 59-60% this year.  If Trump can't get back a lot of that Johnson vote, he's in big trouble in Georgia.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #11 on: August 18, 2016, 02:00:17 pm »

If Johnson truly takes 11% of the vote, Georgia is a pure Tossup, maybe even tilt D. Don't think it will happen, though. But yeah, it's definitely more winnable for Democrats than Arizona.

Yes, I've seen enough that I really think Georgia is going to flip if Clinton wins nationally by 4-6% or more.  This is VA in the late 2000's all over again. 

I also tend to agree that Arizona simply won't happen for her, unless McMullin manages to get on the ballot and take at least 3%.

I agree with this, but I think Arizona would be a better place for her to focus on even if she's less likely to win it.  She doesn't really need either state to win, but the extra money and presence could help down-ballot races, which are more competitive in Arizona.
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« Reply #12 on: August 18, 2016, 02:23:55 pm »

If Johnson truly takes 11% of the vote, Georgia is a pure Tossup, maybe even tilt D. Don't think it will happen, though. But yeah, it's definitely more winnable for Democrats than Arizona.

Yes, I've seen enough that I really think Georgia is going to flip if Clinton wins nationally by 4-6% or more.  This is VA in the late 2000's all over again. 

I also tend to agree that Arizona simply won't happen for her, unless McMullin manages to get on the ballot and take at least 3%.

I agree with this, but I think Arizona would be a better place for her to focus on even if she's less likely to win it.  She doesn't really need either state to win, but the extra money and presence could help down-ballot races, which are more competitive in Arizona.

Good point.  Kirkpatrick has a far better chance than Barksdale ever did, and AZ Dems don't have to worry about the 50% runoff threshold.  Are there any House opportunities for Dems in GA?  Does Woodall have a credible opponent?

AZ-2 is worth a shot as well as AZ-1.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #13 on: August 18, 2016, 02:46:16 pm »

If Johnson truly takes 11% of the vote, Georgia is a pure Tossup, maybe even tilt D. Don't think it will happen, though. But yeah, it's definitely more winnable for Democrats than Arizona.

Yes, I've seen enough that I really think Georgia is going to flip if Clinton wins nationally by 4-6% or more.  This is VA in the late 2000's all over again. 

I also tend to agree that Arizona simply won't happen for her, unless McMullin manages to get on the ballot and take at least 3%.

I agree with this, but I think Arizona would be a better place for her to focus on even if she's less likely to win it.  She doesn't really need either state to win, but the extra money and presence could help down-ballot races, which are more competitive in Arizona.

Good point.  Kirkpatrick has a far better chance than Barksdale ever did, and AZ Dems don't have to worry about the 50% runoff threshold.  Are there any House opportunities for Dems in GA?  Does Woodall have a credible opponent?

Woodall does have an opponent, but the race is listed as Solid R by Cook.  They have every GA district as either Solid R or Solid D.
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« Reply #14 on: August 18, 2016, 03:00:58 pm »

23% of whites is the magic number for Clinton to win.
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
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« Reply #15 on: August 18, 2016, 04:04:08 pm »

If Johnson truly takes 11% of the vote, Georgia is a pure Tossup, maybe even tilt D. Don't think it will happen, though. But yeah, it's definitely more winnable for Democrats than Arizona.

Yes, I've seen enough that I really think Georgia is going to flip if Clinton wins nationally by 4-6% or more.  This is VA in the late 2000's all over again.  

I also tend to agree that Arizona simply won't happen for her, unless McMullin manages to get on the ballot and take at least 3%.

I agree with this, but I think Arizona would be a better place for her to focus on even if she's less likely to win it.  She doesn't really need either state to win, but the extra money and presence could help down-ballot races, which are more competitive in Arizona.

Good point.  Kirkpatrick has a far better chance than Barksdale ever did, and AZ Dems don't have to worry about the 50% runoff threshold.  Are there any House opportunities for Dems in GA?  Does Woodall have a credible opponent?

Woodall does have an opponent, but the race is listed as Solid R by Cook.  They have every GA district as either Solid R or Solid D.

Buddy Carter and Rick Allen's districts are the only two that could possibly be worked. It's sad that Barrow's district decayed so much in 2014. If I recall correctly, Romney won Barrow's district with about 56% of the vote in 2012. What's even more interesting is that Romney got an identical share of the vote (down to the decimal) in Carter's district, which is arguably the most "moderate" district in the state in terms of balance.
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This thread went completely off the rails. Exactly as Griffin would have wanted.
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« Reply #16 on: August 18, 2016, 04:25:01 pm »

Republicans will have to spend resources defending Georgia, a state that they usually need not defend.
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« Reply #17 on: August 18, 2016, 04:48:36 pm »

It is increasingly looking like Georgia is a pure toss-up state at this point in the race.

My main issue is that we really haven't seen the state polled from a higher level pollster since the AJC poll on 8/6  from an A- pollster using an RV model.

I suspect we will see quite a few more polls from Georgia over the next month, since despite the relatively mediocre pollsters that have conducted post-convention polls, we are seeing a definite pattern emerging, although granted Southern White undecided voters typically tend to break Republican heavily during the final stretch of a GE.

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Boston Bread
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« Reply #18 on: August 18, 2016, 05:08:38 pm »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/766329883341516800

Clinton wins
Minorities
<45
Women
84% of Democrats
37% of Independents
Metro Atlanta

Trump wins
Whites 60.6% to 23% (+37.6)
>45
Men
76% of GOP
36% of Independents
Outside of Metro Atlanta

The Hispanic vote is more pro Clinton than the Black vote, which I haven't seen elsewhere.
Hispanics are 2% of the sample, so big MoE.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #19 on: August 18, 2016, 06:41:48 pm »

https://twitter.com/Opinion_Savvy/status/766329883341516800

Clinton wins
Minorities
<45
Women
84% of Democrats
37% of Independents
Metro Atlanta

Trump wins
Whites 60.6% to 23% (+37.6)
>45
Men
76% of GOP
36% of Independents
Outside of Metro Atlanta

The Hispanic vote is more pro Clinton than the Black vote, which I haven't seen elsewhere.
Hispanics are 2% of the sample, so big MoE.

Brown is the New Black in Georgia....

Latinos in Georgia represent almost 10% of the state population, only 4% of eligible voters and 2% of registered voters.

The Latino population in Georgia is heavily concentrated in "Metro Atlanta", although these are extremely broad definitions that include many rural and semi-rural areas as well.

Here is some data that I pulled of Latino population by county along with 2012 GE numbers.

The most obvious data point is the extremely low voting population compared to total county population in the most heavily Latino counties in Georgia, and additionally a strong correlation between GE Republican voting percentages in many of these counties that have an extremely small Black population...


Whitfield- 103k Pop--- 27k Voters- 33% Latino (72-27 Romney)
Echols- 4k Pop--- 1.1k voters--- 29% Latino (83-16 Romney)
Hall- 180k Pop--- 61k voters--- 27% Latino (77-21 Romney)
Stewart- 6k Pop--- 2.1k voters---  25% Latino (64-36 Obama)
Atkinson-8k Pop---3k voters---  25% Latino (67-32 Romney)
Gwinnett- 860k Pop--- 297k voters--- 20% Latino (54-45 Romney)
Colquitt-  45k Pop--- 13k voters--- 18% Latino (69-30 Romney)
Chattahoochee 11k Pop--- 1.5k voters- 15% Latino (49* Romney- Obama)
Gordon- 55k Pop--- 17k voters--- 15% Latino (78-20 Romney)
Telfair- 16k Pop--- 4k voters--- 14% Latino (57-42 Romney)
Murray- 40k Pop--- 11k voters--- 14% Latino (75-23 Romney)
Habersham- 43k Pop--- 15k voters--- 14% Latino (83-16 Romney)
Clayton 259k Pop--- 96k voters- 13% Latino (85-15 Obama)
Polk- 41k Pop--- 14k voters--- 13% Latino (72-26 Romney)
Cobb- 741k Pop--- 311k voters--- 13% Latino (55-43 Romney)

Georgia is the classic "New South" state in so many regards going back to the '60s and '70s, but as we roll into the 2020s, it still retains that reputation, however if you roll through these numbers from North Georgia to the suburbs/exurbs of Atlanta to agricultural producing areas of South Georgia, it is clear that voting rights laws designed to disenfranchise Black voters, are now being modified to legitimize a systematic pattern of discrimination against the growing Latino population in the state.

# BrownIstheNewBlack
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GAinDC
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« Reply #20 on: August 19, 2016, 10:54:01 am »

I haven't posted here in a while but I had to get in on the conversation now that #BattlegroundGeorgia is apparently a thing.

Haven't looked at the crosstabs on this one but it seems most of these GA polls have been good for HRC despite overestimating the white share of the electorate which is even better news.

23-25% of the white vote is her magic #
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Crumpets
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« Reply #21 on: August 19, 2016, 12:37:23 pm »

I haven't posted here in a while but I had to get in on the conversation now that #BattlegroundGeorgia is apparently a thing.

Haven't looked at the crosstabs on this one but it seems most of these GA polls have been good for HRC despite overestimating the white share of the electorate which is even better news.

23-25% of the white vote is her magic #

If you used to post here but are (apparently) using a new account, you might want to go into "The Atlas" subforum and talk to one of the moderators and make sure you don't get in trouble for making a sock.
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GAinDC
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« Reply #22 on: August 19, 2016, 12:39:19 pm »

I haven't posted here in a while but I had to get in on the conversation now that #BattlegroundGeorgia is apparently a thing.

Haven't looked at the crosstabs on this one but it seems most of these GA polls have been good for HRC despite overestimating the white share of the electorate which is even better news.

23-25% of the white vote is her magic #

If you used to post here but are (apparently) using a new account, you might want to go into "The Atlas" subforum and talk to one of the moderators and make sure you don't get in trouble for making a sock.

Thanks. Yes, I used to post under a different account but no sinister motives here. Just fired up for election season.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #23 on: August 19, 2016, 01:11:57 pm »

Let's hope Clinton can take it.
But to be honest, it's not going to be easy.
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« Reply #24 on: August 19, 2016, 02:02:00 pm »

It is increasingly looking like Georgia is a pure toss-up state at this point in the race.

My main issue is that we really haven't seen the state polled from a higher level pollster since the AJC poll on 8/6  from an A- pollster using an RV model.

I suspect we will see quite a few more polls from Georgia over the next month, since despite the relatively mediocre pollsters that have conducted post-convention polls, we are seeing a definite pattern emerging, although granted Southern White undecided voters typically tend to break Republican heavily during the final stretch of a GE.



Yeah would be nice to see a Marist or Monmouth poll here.
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