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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close  (Read 3867 times)
dspNY
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« Reply #25 on: August 21, 2016, 10:33:36 am »
« edited: August 21, 2016, 10:38:17 am by dspNY »

Additionally, there have been 15 polls taken of Ohio since June 7, when Clinton mathematically wrapped up the Democratic nomination. Clinton led in 12 polls; Trump in 2; and there was 1 tie

Trump only led by 3 in a PPP poll taken right before the RNC and by 1 in that batch of odd Quinnipiac polls of the big 3 swing states. Otherwise it is all Clinton

Iowa is a true tossup. Since July 4, Trump and Clinton have each led in 3 polls, with two ties (out of 8 polls)
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xingkerui
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« Reply #26 on: August 21, 2016, 10:41:54 am »

I won't deny that Clinton could have an Iowa problem, but I wouldn't be surprised if she overperforms her polls, or if Iowa trends her way in the fall. One of the key things about Iowa is ground game/organization, which is one of the reasons it was such a strong state for Obama. I could see Trump's poor organization hurting him here.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #27 on: August 21, 2016, 10:45:46 am »

That Ohio number is delicious. This fits with the news of Republican internals in PA that have Trump down double digits.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #28 on: August 21, 2016, 10:46:57 am »

Is there a geographic breakdown of the Ohio poll? I'd really like to see how Hillary's doing in the Northeast (and no, under no circumstances is she going to lose Mahoning County). Against Trump, I'm positive she'll win Lake County. I wonder if she could even flip Medina as well. Even in a very close race, I think Hillary will overperform in the Northeast (i.e. Cleveland and its suburbs and around Akron and  Youngstown).
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: August 21, 2016, 10:48:49 am »

Those polls seem to confirm (Pew, daily tracker polls) that race almost came back to "pre-convention" polling, i.e. Clinton is up 4-6 from 8-10
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: August 21, 2016, 10:55:22 am »

Those polls seem to confirm (Pew, daily tracker polls) that race almost came back to "pre-convention" polling, i.e. Clinton is up 4-6 from 8-10

Ohio up by 6 does not jive with her being up 4-6. More like 6-8.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #31 on: August 21, 2016, 10:55:27 am »

Those polls seem to confirm (Pew, daily tracker polls) that race almost came back to "pre-convention" polling, i.e. Clinton is up 4-6 from 8-10
No, these are saying this is a 6 to 8 point race.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #32 on: August 21, 2016, 11:01:54 am »

^^^
Yougov polled Ohio (C +5) and Iowa (T+1) July 13-15. Then the race was Clinton +4-5.
Now we get C+6 and tie in OH and Iowa, respectively.

This together with other polls might indicate, that race is tightening. Or not Cheesy
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: August 21, 2016, 11:02:58 am »

Gender gap in Ohio is ridiculous. Trump is only winning men by 3%, while Clinton is winning women by 16%.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #34 on: August 21, 2016, 11:06:22 am »

^^^
Yougov polled Ohio (C +5) and Iowa (T+1) July 13-15. Then the race was Clinton +4-5.
Now we get C+6 and tie in OH and Iowa, respectively.

This together with other polls might indicate, that race is tightening. Or not Cheesy
So Ohio is going to be an even PVI this year.  OK whatever you say.
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Polarized MT Treasurer
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« Reply #35 on: August 21, 2016, 11:08:02 am »

OH number is awful for Trump. IA is just remarkable, given that this was a safe D state in 2008 and a lean D state in 2012. Trump will win it in a close race.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #36 on: August 21, 2016, 11:17:42 am »

^^^
Yougov polled Ohio (C +5) and Iowa (T+1) July 13-15. Then the race was Clinton +4-5.
Now we get C+6 and tie in OH and Iowa, respectively.

This together with other polls might indicate, that race is tightening. Or not Cheesy
So Ohio is going to be an even PVI this year.  OK whatever you say.
Sigh, I'm not saying that. I just compare polls from the same pollster.

Check out, how 538's model is working.
Quote
Trend line adjustment

The model detects movement in the polls by making comparisons between different editions of the same poll. For example, if Clinton is at 46 percent in the Quinnipiac poll of Florida in August and was at 43 percent in the same poll in July, that suggests she’s gained 3 percentage points. Likewise, if Trump’s at 41 percent in the Rasmussen national poll this week and he was at 40 percent last week, that suggests he’s gained 1 percentage point.

It seems pretty reasonable, don't you think?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #37 on: August 21, 2016, 11:23:54 am »

Aw, how cute, CBS thinks Iowa is gonna be close.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #38 on: August 21, 2016, 11:31:53 am »

Aw, how cute, CBS thinks Iowa is gonna be close.

It probably will be.  I suspect it's going to be one of the closest states (although I think Clinton is likely to pull it out in the end due to superior organization and ground game.)  The states don't all shift in a uniform manner.  Certainly VA, CO, and NC -- more diverse and educated states -- are trending D.  Iowa, with a whiter and less educated population, is trending R. 
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PresidentSamTilden
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« Reply #39 on: August 21, 2016, 12:07:52 pm »

"Only 80% of Iowa Democrats back Clinton"

I think it's Bernie time...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #40 on: August 21, 2016, 12:09:35 pm »

"Only 80% of Iowa Democrats back Clinton"

I think it's Bernie time...

I think they need to replace Kaine with Sanders or Warren.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #41 on: August 21, 2016, 12:18:44 pm »

Up 6 in Ohio? But muh tracking polls
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #42 on: August 21, 2016, 12:40:49 pm »

Up 6 in Ohio? But muh tracking polls
They shows almost the same trend.
Yougov shows almost the same results AUG. 17-19 as JUL. 13-15 (Clintons lead increased by one point in OH and IA).
The La Times shows that race for Aug 14-20 is almost the same as for Jul 14-20.

Smiley One more time:
Trend.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #43 on: August 21, 2016, 12:47:06 pm »

lol Ohio is not going to be more Democratic than the rest of the nation, friend. Ohio has always been a Republican leaning swing state.

The bump is fading, but it's showing a race that is still very distant for Mr. Trump.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #44 on: August 21, 2016, 12:49:35 pm »

lol Ohio is not going to be more Democratic than the rest of the nation, friend. Ohio has always been a Republican leaning swing state.

And if anything Trump was supposed to make it more GOP leaning than usual, per the conventional wisdom and earlier polls.

In fact, this is the biggest lead she's had in ANY Ohio poll (aside from that junky Ballotpedia poll in June) since March.
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Castro
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« Reply #45 on: August 21, 2016, 01:02:04 pm »

lol Ohio is not going to be more Democratic than the rest of the nation, friend. Ohio has always been a Republican leaning swing state.

And if anything Trump was supposed to make it more GOP leaning than usual, per the conventional wisdom and earlier polls.

In fact, this is the biggest lead she's had in ANY Ohio poll (aside from that junky Ballotpedia poll in June) since March.

Not sure what's going on with Iowa, but the Ohio number jibes with 538's polls-only model polling average of Clinton +7.1.
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Fmr Deputy Speaker Spark498
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« Reply #46 on: August 21, 2016, 01:04:11 pm »

The only poll that matters is on election day.
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Castro
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« Reply #47 on: August 21, 2016, 01:05:17 pm »

The only poll that matters is on election day.

-Everyone that ended up losing the election
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #48 on: August 21, 2016, 01:55:19 pm »

The only poll that matters is on election day.

I said this in another thread recently, but it bears repeating here.

If you say the only poll that matters is on election day: you're losing.

If you have to adjust the poll numbers to get a favorable result: you're losing.

If you start talking about rigged elections: you're losing.

If you do all of these and it's three 2.5 months until election day: you're losing badly.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #49 on: August 21, 2016, 01:56:42 pm »

The only poll that matters is on election day.

Would you honestly say the same thing if this poll had Trump up 6 in Ohio?
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