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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close  (Read 3845 times)
Badger
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« Reply #50 on: August 21, 2016, 02:59:45 pm »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

seriously. lack of minorities.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #51 on: August 21, 2016, 03:05:26 pm »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

seriously. lack of minorities.

He's not doing well (even relatively) in states like WI or NH though.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #52 on: August 21, 2016, 03:07:40 pm »

The only poll that matters is on election day.

So says just about every eventual loser, except in races that are or have been nearly tied.

Donald Trump needs some dynamic to deliver him from a landslide loss (please pardon the double alliterations!), and it is hard to imagine what such a dynamic is.

It's even getting late for a 1929-style crash; it's almost September.  
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #53 on: August 21, 2016, 03:08:10 pm »

In IA, Trump is winning 9% of Democrats, and Clinton is winning 4% of Republicans. There seem to a real lack anti-Trump Republicans, for a state where Trump did poorly in the primaries.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #54 on: August 21, 2016, 03:10:20 pm »

In IA, Trump is winning 9% of Democrats, and Clinton is winning 4% of Republicans. There seem to a real lack anti-Trump Republicans, for a state where Trump did poorly in the primaries.

That does make some sense. Are Ted Cruz/Steve King voters really going to bolt from Trump? I doubt it.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #55 on: August 21, 2016, 03:12:51 pm »

Remember how TYT was declaring IA "Safe D Forever!!!" after it voted to the left of PA in 2012? ROFL.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #56 on: August 21, 2016, 03:21:21 pm »

Remember how TYT was declaring IA "Safe D Forever!!!" after it voted to the left of PA in 2012? ROFL.

Remember when you were on the "Hillary is a bad fit for CO" train? LMAO. And don't tell me her double digit lead there is exclusively because "Trump bad".
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #57 on: August 21, 2016, 03:27:44 pm »

Iowa's polling was closer than Ohio's in 2012 and yet, it voted to the left of the Buckeye state.
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #58 on: August 21, 2016, 04:05:56 pm »

Remember how TYT was declaring IA "Safe D Forever!!!" after it voted to the left of PA in 2012? ROFL.

Remember when you were on the "Hillary is a bad fit for CO" train? LMAO. And don't tell me her double digit lead there is exclusively because "Trump bad".

I still think R's would have at least a nominal advantage in CO with a non-Trump candidate. And I never rated CO Safe R. In fact on at least one occasion I called out users who were giving it that rating.
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« Reply #59 on: August 21, 2016, 04:08:56 pm »

I suppose Trump coming close in Iowa would be a silver lining in an otherwise grim electoral college landscape for Republicans.  Even a good Republican candidate in 2020 will have to play defense on so many fronts.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #60 on: August 21, 2016, 05:03:33 pm »

Gender gap in Ohio is ridiculous. Trump is only winning men by 3%, while Clinton is winning women by 16%.

While large compared to presidential elections past, a 19 point differential isn't that remarkable by the standards of Clinton/Trump polls we've seen this year.  Some polls have shown the gender gap being 30 points or more.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #61 on: August 21, 2016, 05:03:36 pm »

Trump's at 40% in Iowa. Is he doing well or is it just that Clinton is having a harder time closing the deal with undecideds than in other states?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #62 on: August 21, 2016, 05:15:45 pm »

Trump's at 40% in Iowa. Is he doing well or is it just that Clinton is having a harder time closing the deal with undecideds than in other states?

Both are well under their parties' floors (about 45%), which of course means that one can conclude nothing from this poll in Iowa.

Ohio is in contrast big trouble for Donald Trump. Another must-win state (including Colorado, Florida, and Virginia) outside of the margin of error, and Colorado and Virginia far outside of the margin of error? I smell a landslide.
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Badger
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« Reply #63 on: August 21, 2016, 05:18:33 pm »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

seriously. lack of minorities.

He's not doing well (even relatively) in states like WI or NH though.

sorry. i meant "not enough minorities?" i'm genuinely confused.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #64 on: August 21, 2016, 05:36:21 pm »

Trump's at 40% in Iowa. Is he doing well or is it just that Clinton is having a harder time closing the deal with undecideds than in other states?

I think there are multiple factors at work, but it seems clear that Iowans aren't big fans of either candidate....

What is sometimes forgotten about Obama, is that he performed exceptionally well in the "Farm Belt" region of the Lower Midwest (Iowa, Rural Illinois, Indiana, etc...) perhaps the best performance for a Democrat since Dukakis in '88 at the height of the farm crisis, where many rural counties in this region swung heavily Democratic from Northern MO to Southern IA, etc....

Obama ran as a MidWest Democrat and in '08 on an anti-Iraq war platform, which appealed greatly to many in a part of the country where there is historical greater international isolationist and anti-interventionist attitudes than in many other parts of the country, and overperformed his national numbers in '08 and '12 in Iowa.

Iowa appears to be one of the few states where Hillary was not able to consolidate the '08/'12 Obama base, and additionally is still seen as fairly hawkish on foreign policy, supporter of free-trade agreements that cost American Mfg jobs, and connected to "big wall street banks" in a state which has a long populist tradition, large chunk of employment related to manufacturing jobs, where older individuals would rather invest their money into Credit Unions than the big banks.

Ok---- Not saying that I agree that all of these statements about Hillary are factually correct, but I can see how some of these older viewers could relate to Trump's "isolationist and economically protectionist and nativist" image.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #65 on: August 21, 2016, 05:43:10 pm »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

seriously. lack of minorities.

He's not doing well (even relatively) in states like WI or NH though.

sorry. i meant "not enough minorities?" i'm genuinely confused.

Maybe,

Trump: "How stupid are the people of Iowa?!"

Iowans: "We're so sorry senpai! I hope he notices his poll numbers here and loves us again!"
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PikaTROD
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« Reply #66 on: August 22, 2016, 07:57:51 pm »

You could say it's a tIe-owa in Iowa.
Ba-dum-tssssshhhhhhhh! Waka wakaaaa! XD
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Castro
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« Reply #67 on: August 22, 2016, 09:18:18 pm »

You could say it's a tIe-owa in Iowa.
Ba-dum-tssssshhhhhhhh! Waka wakaaaa! XD

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Arch
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« Reply #68 on: August 22, 2016, 09:23:47 pm »

You could say it's a tIe-owa in Iowa.
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