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  CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close
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Author Topic: CBS/YouGov: Clinton+6 in OH, IA very close  (Read 3871 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: August 21, 2016, 09:30:19 am »

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https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/21/cbs-battleground-tracker-ohio-iowa
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Ebsy
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 09:32:12 am »

Clinton being +6 in Ohio suggests the race isn't so close as some would have us believe.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 09:34:20 am »

Good news in Ohio. Iowa will probably have the second biggest R trend.
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Buzz
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 09:36:01 am »

Meh not the best
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 09:36:28 am »

I'm not sure how the race actually looks in Iowa since Clinton and Trump are still polling in the high 30s/low 40s and over 10% in this poll are undecided. This seems about right though for Iowa right now and Ohio is surprising.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 09:36:43 am »

Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2016, 09:40:09 am »

Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

Remember that there were polls in Oct. 2004, which had Kerry ahead in OH by 6 (and he lost).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 09:40:59 am »

Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
Glad to see Tender is still bending logic and reason to create a horserace where there is none.
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darthpi
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 09:41:23 am »

That Ohio number is encouraging, Clinton up 2 from the last YouGov poll there. Iowa continues to look like a coin-flip race, but that is basically expected by now.

Overall, I'm happy with those results.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 09:42:15 am »

Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
Glad to see Tender is still bending logic and reason to create a horserace where there is none.

I'm just cautioning you guys not to have blind trust in these state polls ...
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dspNY
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 09:43:05 am »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 09:43:47 am »

Compared to Obama's performance in 2012, Clinton is up three points in Ohio and down six in Iowa.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 09:46:52 am »

That Ohio result is ugly for the Trump campaign. I'm guessing she's getting big numbers from the cities and out of the Northeastern part of the state.

As for Iowa, it's pretty much in line with everything else we've been seeing. It's almost certainly now the Obama state most at risk.
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JMT
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 09:47:57 am »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

Or, as Trump himself would say, "How stupid are the people of Iowa?"
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Panda Express
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 09:48:02 am »

Iowa needs to be stripped of its status as the first primary/caucus state.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 09:48:26 am »

If Clinton is ahead by double digits in PA, NH, VA, CO, and by mid-single digits in OH, FL, NC, then Iowa and Nevada are completely irrelevant.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #16 on: August 21, 2016, 09:57:57 am »

Wow, looks like the race is shifting in Clinton's direction if those Ohio numbers are true. Fantastic news!

In the 3-poll average, Hillary now leads by 4 (which is well within the MoE).

Remember that there were polls in Oct. 2004, which had Kerry ahead in OH by 6 (and he lost).

But as long as CO and VA are above average for her, she should be OK.
Guess who that pollster was?

The LA Times.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #17 on: August 21, 2016, 10:07:44 am »

I will now accept my accolades for being one of the people saying back in 2013/14 that Clinton had an Iowa problem.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #18 on: August 21, 2016, 10:11:42 am »

This Ohio poll is really good for her, but it seems clear her national lead has faded back to 3-6.

So you think Ohio is as Democratic as the nation if not more Democratic? I don't think so. Sure, there was that one Pew poll, but the state polls indicate this is a 6-8 point lead nationally.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #19 on: August 21, 2016, 10:14:33 am »

Screw Iowa, I'll take +6 in Ohio, thank you very much! The rustbelt strategy is clearly not working for Trump.
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ExtremeConservative
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« Reply #20 on: August 21, 2016, 10:15:08 am »

+6 in Ohio makes sense if Clinton is +10 or +11 in PA

What the hell is going on in Iowa?

Iowa's now a Lean R state in an even national election, no longer the tossup/tilt D of yesteryear.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #21 on: August 21, 2016, 10:16:57 am »

This Ohio poll is really good for her, but it seems clear her national lead has faded back to 3-6.

Where is that clear from? This is her biggest lead in Ohio since March.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #22 on: August 21, 2016, 10:21:41 am »

Iowa seems to heading the way of Missouri. We should have known after they elected nutcase Joni Ernst in 2014.
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darthpi
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« Reply #23 on: August 21, 2016, 10:22:15 am »

This Ohio poll is really good for her, but it seems clear her national lead has faded back to 3-6.

So you think Ohio is as Democratic as the nation if not more Democratic? I don't think so. Sure, there was that one Pew poll, but the state polls indicate this is a 6-8 point lead nationally.

My working assumption, looking at both the national and the state polls, is that it's about a 6 point lead nationally.
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dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: August 21, 2016, 10:23:13 am »

92% of Ohio voters in the YouGov poll are completely locked in or probably won't change. That gives Trump very little chance to reverse a 6 point deficit

87% of voters who said they were not voting for Trump (56% of the respondents overall) said there is no chance they vote for Trump
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