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  IA/OH-CBS/YouGov: Grassley & Portman both +7
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Author Topic: IA/OH-CBS/YouGov: Grassley & Portman both +7  (Read 1107 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 21, 2016, 09:50:00 am »

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/08/21/cbs-battleground-tracker-ohio-iowa/

Grassley - 45%
Judge - 38%

Portman - 46%
Strickland - 39%
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Panda Express
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« Reply #1 on: August 21, 2016, 09:51:00 am »

Wow, Strickand is a dud. Should have went with Ed Fitzgerald.
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« Reply #2 on: August 21, 2016, 09:52:04 am »

Wow, Strickand is a dud. Should have went with Ed Fitzgerald.
He could appeal to the female Irish-american vote.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 21, 2016, 09:52:42 am »

Wow, Strickand is a dud. Should have went with Ed Fitzgerald.

Agreed. I think he narrows the lead a bit but it's clearly Portman's race to lose. Tim Ryan would've been the best.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: August 21, 2016, 10:18:14 am »

I had a feeling that this would happen with Strickland.  The guy doesn't know how to raise money or run effective ads.
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JMT
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« Reply #5 on: August 21, 2016, 10:42:28 am »

Yeah, this is unfortunate. I expected more of Strickland. I wouldn't say the race is over yet, but Portman is definitely favored. Who would've thought that Portman and Grassley would have the same margins in polls? Portman is a lot stronger than I thought he would be, and Grassley is a lot weaker.

Tim Ryan likely would've been a better candidate for Senate, but he likely didn't want to take the risk of losing. He'll probably strongly consider running for Governor in 2018 though
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« Reply #6 on: August 21, 2016, 11:01:35 am »

I don't think this is all because of Strickland. Portman's not exactly unpopular, and he's a relatively inoffensive senator. I always had a hard time believing that he was in as much trouble as earlier polls suggested. I initially thought he'd be less vulnerable than Toomey or Rubio, and it looks like I was probably right about that. Strickland's not totally done yet, but this race is at at least Lean R, by this point.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 11:20:15 am »

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 11:43:24 am »

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 12:29:03 pm »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by YouGov on 2016-08-19

Summary: D: 38%, R: 45%, I: 0%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 12:31:13 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by YouGov on 2016-08-19

Summary: D: 39%, R: 46%, I: 4%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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King Andrew of House Beshear
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 02:06:03 pm »

I don't think this is all because of Strickland. Portman's not exactly unpopular, and he's a relatively inoffensive senator. I always had a hard time believing that he was in as much trouble as earlier polls suggested. I initially thought he'd be less vulnerable than Toomey or Rubio, and it looks like I was probably right about that. Strickland's not totally done yet, but this race is at at least Lean R, by this point.

It has nothing to do with Portman (who isn't very entrenched).  Strickland has run an awful campaign, he'll still do much better than Sittenfield would've though.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 04:24:33 pm »

I'm not too disappointed about Ohio. Yeah it's a Senate seat, but if it had to stay Republican I'm glad it's Portman.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2016, 05:58:07 pm »

These races are starting to make more sense. Grassely being way up and Portman being slightly down early on always puzzled me. Looks like the name recognition game helped Strickland early, and after people payed attention for a few months, Portman's numbers went up. With Grassely, I thought lack of ticket splitting in modern politics was going to hurt him, and it is.

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

What is he then?
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2016, 06:08:42 pm »

These races are starting to make more sense. Grassely being way up and Portman being slightly down early on always puzzled me. Looks like the name recognition game helped Strickland early, and after people payed attention for a few months, Portman's numbers went up. With Grassely, I thought lack of ticket splitting in modern politics was going to hurt him, and it is.

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

What is he then?
He is a maverick on SSM and clean energy research. He also over performed Kasich in 2010, and has picked up the endorsement of the Teamsters Union. He is also very decorated (former Trade Rep. and OMB Director, though that may be a liability this year). I do not consider him a generic Republican.
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Icefire9
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« Reply #15 on: August 21, 2016, 06:20:19 pm »

Strickland blew it.  Grassley isn't in serious danger either, since the presidential race in Iowa is looking close.
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King Andrew of House Beshear
jdb
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2016, 06:44:00 pm »

These races are starting to make more sense. Grassely being way up and Portman being slightly down early on always puzzled me. Looks like the name recognition game helped Strickland early, and after people payed attention for a few months, Portman's numbers went up. With Grassely, I thought lack of ticket splitting in modern politics was going to hurt him, and it is.

They will both lose because split ticket voting doesn't exist anymore. /hacks

But in all seriousness, Portman is probably running the best campaign of any Republican Senator this year. Strickland's record as governor is pretty terrbile, but there is no other Democrat in Ohio who could have made this competitive IMO. Still, the fact that Strickland is struggling so much in a presidential year doesn't bode well for Sherrod Brown in 2018.

Strickland's not an incumbent while Brown is.  I'm not saying that Brown won't be in trouble, but comparing this race to Browns is comparing apples to oranges.
Well, Strickland is basically a generic D with statewide name recognition. Portman is not a generic R and has been doing really well with campaigning and presenting himself to voters. Brown, on the other hand is an unapologetic liberal who, despite representing an R+1 state, legislates like its a D+15 state. Even Mandel would win in a neutral year, assuming Scott Rupert doesn't run. He is not as bad as the red avatars paint him, though since he didn't endorse Kasich, I imagine Kasich and Friends will back someone else (Tiberi, Stivers, Husted, etc.) in the primary.

What is he then?
He is a maverick on SSM and clean energy research. He also over performed Kasich in 2010, and has picked up the endorsement of the Teamsters Union. He is also very decorated (former Trade Rep. and OMB Director, though that may be a liability this year). I do not consider him a generic Republican.

Most Ohioans consider him generic R Tongue
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