How did Bush win CO, VA, & NV?

[Annatar]

Because Bush did just well enough in the suburbs of Denver, it should be noted Colorado trended really hard D in 2004, it went from having a R+8.9 lean in 2000 to R+2.3. There were huge swings against Bush in the suburbs among affluent educated voters in Colorado. In Denver county for example his margin in 2000-2004 went from -31% to -40%.

Nevada he won because won the NPV, Nevada voted 0.1% more Republican than the nation in 2004, it should be noted NV also trended D in 2000-2004 moving from a R+4 lean to a R+0.1 lean. NV in 2016 voted D+0.3 relative to the nation so Bush basically did as well in NV relative to the nation as Trump did, its just he won the NPV.

Virginia he won because the suburbs in NOVA were not as democratic as they would become also VA also trended D from 2000-2004 going from a R+8.5 lean in 2000 to R+5.7


One point I would just make about Bush in 2004 more broadly is he did horribly in affluent areas compared to previous Republicans such as his father in 1988 relative to the NPV, Bush really won because he made huge gains in small towns and rural areas. In that regard, Bush in 2000 and 2004 set the template for how Republicans could win in the future.

[Annatar]

Regarding Colorado and Nevada --- he won those states mostly because he won the popular vote by 2-3%. Had Romney or McCain won the popular vote by 2-3%, then they would have won Colorado and/or Nevada too.

It's tempting to say that Bush's 40% support from Hispanics gave him those states, but in 2004, Hispanics didn't constitute as much of the states's electorate as today (esp. in Colorado, which was probably over 80% white in 2004). Bush's 40% with Hispanics gave him New Mexico alone.

Regarding Virginia -- Bush won it because, in 2004, the Democrats did not yet realize that the state was purple, so they never contested the state (It wasn't until 2006 that Virginia became the state we know today). Kerry indeed made no visits to Virginia in 2004, nor did he devote any money to advertising there. As far as he (and the Democrats) were concerned, Virginia was simply a state that had not gone Democrat since 1964.

I would point out Hispanics are still irrelevant in Colorado, in 2016 78% of the vote was white and only 12% was Hispanic, the Republican problem in Colorado is whites there aren't Republican like they are in the rest of the nation outside of the west coast. Trump only won whites by 2% in Colorado which means whites in Colorado were 18% more democratic than whites nationally.

[Annatar]

Regarding Colorado and Nevada --- he won those states mostly because he won the popular vote by 2-3%. Had Romney or McCain won the popular vote by 2-3%, then they would have won Colorado and/or Nevada too.

It's tempting to say that Bush's 40% support from Hispanics gave him those states, but in 2004, Hispanics didn't constitute as much of the states's electorate as today (esp. in Colorado, which was probably over 80% white in 2004). Bush's 40% with Hispanics gave him New Mexico alone.

Regarding Virginia -- Bush won it because, in 2004, the Democrats did not yet realize that the state was purple, so they never contested the state (It wasn't until 2006 that Virginia became the state we know today). Kerry indeed made no visits to Virginia in 2004, nor did he devote any money to advertising there. As far as he (and the Democrats) were concerned, Virginia was simply a state that had not gone Democrat since 1964.

I would point out Hispanics are still irrelevant in Colorado, in 2016 78% of the vote was white and only 12% was Hispanic, the Republican problem in Colorado is whites there aren't Republican like they are in the rest of the nation outside of the west coast. Trump only won whites by 2% in Colorado which means whites in Colorado were 18% more democratic than whites nationally.

And this year, Trump probably lost whites by at least a mid single-digit margin, perhaps even a high single-digit one. As in 2008 with Obama, Colorado was the only state on the Great Continental Divide where Biden won the white vote.

The Edison exit polls had Biden winning whites 57-41 over Trump, a 16% margin, one of the largest in the country, the exit poll interestingly enough had Biden winning non-whites only 55-42, by 13%, is Colorado one of the only states where the white vote is more democratic than the non-white vote.

[Annatar]

Regarding Colorado and Nevada --- he won those states mostly because he won the popular vote by 2-3%. Had Romney or McCain won the popular vote by 2-3%, then they would have won Colorado and/or Nevada too.

It's tempting to say that Bush's 40% support from Hispanics gave him those states, but in 2004, Hispanics didn't constitute as much of the states's electorate as today (esp. in Colorado, which was probably over 80% white in 2004). Bush's 40% with Hispanics gave him New Mexico alone.

Regarding Virginia -- Bush won it because, in 2004, the Democrats did not yet realize that the state was purple, so they never contested the state (It wasn't until 2006 that Virginia became the state we know today). Kerry indeed made no visits to Virginia in 2004, nor did he devote any money to advertising there. As far as he (and the Democrats) were concerned, Virginia was simply a state that had not gone Democrat since 1964.

I would point out Hispanics are still irrelevant in Colorado, in 2016 78% of the vote was white and only 12% was Hispanic, the Republican problem in Colorado is whites there aren't Republican like they are in the rest of the nation outside of the west coast. Trump only won whites by 2% in Colorado which means whites in Colorado were 18% more democratic than whites nationally.

And this year, Trump probably lost whites by at least a mid single-digit margin, perhaps even a high single-digit one. As in 2008 with Obama, Colorado was the only state on the Great Continental Divide where Biden won the white vote.

The Edison exit polls had Biden winning whites 57-41 over Trump, a 16% margin, one of the largest in the country, the exit poll interestingly enough had Biden winning non-whites only 55-42, by 13%, is Colorado one of the only states where the white vote is more democratic than the non-white vote.

I'm very skeptical of that number, to say the least, and the exit poll's margin for Biden among whites is larger than the margin he won the state by. But Colorado whites, as I noted above, are certainly the most Democratic in this region of the country, and Biden certainly had the best performance among them of any Democrat since Johnson.

I have scepticism as well, the Edison exit polls have a lot of weird stuff this year.