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  OH Monmouth: Portman +8
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Author Topic: OH Monmouth: Portman +8  (Read 1023 times)
Classic Conservative
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« on: August 22, 2016, 12:05:39 pm »

Rob Portman: 48%
Ted Strickland: 40%
https://mobile.twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/767768603265425408
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Maxwell
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« Reply #1 on: August 22, 2016, 12:10:30 pm »

wow. Portman continues to out-poll Trump by double digits.

sad to see Strickland do so poorly this time around. He's really emulating his idol Tommy Thompson.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #2 on: August 22, 2016, 12:12:00 pm »

Lean R -> Likely R

Closer to Lean than Safe, though. It is clearly Portman's race to lose.
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Xing
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« Reply #3 on: August 22, 2016, 12:18:03 pm »

I wonder if the folks saying that Trump can still win states which he's down by 8 in would say that Strickland can still win.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #4 on: August 22, 2016, 12:18:37 pm »

Barring a complete Trump collapse (I'm taking like a 10-15 point loss or so), Portman is looking pretty good for reelection.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #5 on: August 22, 2016, 12:45:25 pm »

I wonder if the folks saying that Trump can still win states which he's down by 8 in would say that Strickland can still win.

Right. If Strickland being down 8 means the race is Likely R, by that logic isn't Florida Likely D for Clinton?
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #6 on: August 22, 2016, 01:37:44 pm »

New Poll: Ohio Senator by Monmouth University on 2016-08-21

Summary: D: 40%, R: 48%, I: 4%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #7 on: August 22, 2016, 01:40:30 pm »

Props to the people who called Strickland as Tommy Thompson 2.0 over a year ago.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #8 on: August 22, 2016, 03:41:30 pm »

Tommy Thompson was more embarrassing, given that he won four terms in office, which only ended when he won promotion to the Cabinet.  Strickland served only one term which ended in defeat.  Thompson had a much higher fall from grace.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #9 on: August 22, 2016, 03:45:55 pm »

Tommy Thompson was more embarrassing, given that he won four terms in office, which only ended when he won promotion to the Cabinet.  Strickland served only one term which ended in defeat.  Thompson had a much higher fall from grace.

Agreed. Also because Strickland is running against an incumbent Senator that is a fundraising powerhouse, whereas Thompson ran against a very liberal lesbian who was initially unknown to 90% of the state.
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JMT
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« Reply #10 on: August 22, 2016, 04:08:14 pm »

This is pretty impressive for Portman, considering Hillary is leading by 4 in the same poll. I still think this race is tilt R, Strickland could potentially turn things around, but I view that as unlikely. I think Portman wins by about 5 points in November
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #11 on: August 22, 2016, 06:34:03 pm »

Tilt R but Strickland is gonna get heavy lift from Clinton as October nears.  Cortez Castro was down by 10 in NV to Heck and Nevada is a bellweather like Ohio. As October nears, so will the campaign heat up.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #12 on: August 22, 2016, 06:51:27 pm »

Barring a complete Trump collapse (I'm taking like a 10-15 point loss or so), Portman is looking pretty good for reelection.
The same poll has Clinton+4, so he's overperforming Trump in terms of margin by twelve.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #13 on: August 22, 2016, 07:24:23 pm »

Tommy Thompson was more embarrassing, given that he won four terms in office, which only ended when he won promotion to the Cabinet.  Strickland served only one term which ended in defeat.  Thompson had a much higher fall from grace.

Agreed. Also because Strickland is running against an incumbent Senator that is a fundraising powerhouse, whereas Thompson ran against a very liberal lesbian who was initially unknown to 90% of the state.

I said he was emulating his idol - Strickland's not quite as embarrassing as the Thompster, obviously.
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THE BuckeyeNut
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« Reply #14 on: August 22, 2016, 11:38:37 pm »

I'm not sure what to think at the moment. It would be very surprising if Portman won by 9 or 8 on election day. This isn't 2010, and Strickland isn't a battered Lee Fischer.

One thing that stands out to me: 4% for "Other" seems low. The Green Party candidate should get 1-2% of the vote, and Scott Rupert, the Independent candidate, got 4.6% of the vote when he ran in '12. He's sort of a Constitution Party type, and it would odd for him to do worse in a year like 2016.

It's a real shame Husted's done such a marvelous job keeping Libertarians off statewide ballots.
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Figueira
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2016, 05:31:03 pm »

Likely R seems a bit much. Lean R is more accurate.
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