MO-Monmouth: Trump +1

[dspNY]

Monmouth is a very good pollster, so even though this seems like a stretch, maybe Trump is struggling in Missouri. I think he'd have to lose by nearly 10% to actually lose it, but stranger things have happened in this election cycle.

This is far from the first poll showing a close race in Missouri.  PPP had Trump up 3, Remington Research had him up 2, Mason Dixon had Clinton up 1.

I will also note that the Nate Silver/538 adjusts for house effects all indicate a +1 Trump lead.

My thought is that if national margins remain relatively static through November, this will be a horserace come election night with GOTV playing the main decider in the state.

Missouri is definitely much closer than it was in 2012. No post-convention poll in Missouri had Romney leading by less than 3 points. Most of the polls ranged from Romney +6 to +14 (he won by 9.4)

[NOVA Green]

Monmouth is a very good pollster, so even though this seems like a stretch, maybe Trump is struggling in Missouri. I think he'd have to lose by nearly 10% to actually lose it, but stranger things have happened in this election cycle.

This is far from the first poll showing a close race in Missouri.  PPP had Trump up 3, Remington Research had him up 2, Mason Dixon had Clinton up 1.

I will also note that the Nate Silver/538 adjusts for house effects all indicate a +1 Trump lead.

My thought is that if national margins remain relatively static through November, this will be a horserace come election night with GOTV playing the main decider in the state.

Missouri is definitely much closer than it was in 2012. No post-convention poll in Missouri had Romney leading by less than 3 points. Most of the polls ranged from Romney +6 to +14 (he won by 9.4)

True.... this is looking a lot more like '08 than '12 in MO.

Wishing we had more cross-tab breakdowns by region on some of these state polls (Insert subsample standard deviation comment here) to see if, statewide breakdowns are mirroring national numbers that indicate a collapse of Republican Presidential support among college educated White voters.

Assuming Trump overperforms in SW and SE MO, then this would indicate Jefferson County flipping and by larger than Obama '08 margins, collapse of Republican leaners in St Louis County, and a somewhat close race in St Charles County.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I've arguing this for ages now, MO is NOT five miles to the right of Kentucky that  people around here seemed to have been arguing.

Romney did so well, thanks to suburban whites turning away from Obama. I see no reason why MO cannot be an extremely tight race considering those voters are turned off by Trump.

[jamestroll]

I've arguing this for ages now, MO is NOT five miles to the right of Kentucky that  people around here seemed to have been arguing.

Romney did so well, thanks to suburban whites turning away from Obama. I see no reason why MO cannot be an extremely tight race considering those voters are turned off by Trump.

Yea, a lot of posters see Missouri like another Utah or Idaho (ok, exaggerating a slight bit). It is not.

Hillary is virtually tied with Trump, despite no efforts on the Democratic side to win the state. She can win the state with all this political turmoil.

Long term, I certainly think Georgia, Arizona, even Texas are  better investments for Democrats. But, in 2012.. there were many voters who voted for Romney AND Nixon, McCaskill, and Koster and to a lesser extent Jason Kander and Clint Zweifel.  In fact, perceived liberal Claire McCaskill largely outperformed polls. So, the voters who are willing to vote for a Democrat exist, and enough exist to make a majority.

Before someone compares MO Democrats to West Virginia Democrats.. you really can not. This is not comparable to West Virginia. The Obama's administration "attack on coal", makes an entirely different situation in West Virginia then Missouri.

[IceSpear]

I've arguing this for ages now, MO is NOT five miles to the right of Kentucky that  people around here seemed to have been arguing.

Romney did so well, thanks to suburban whites turning away from Obama. I see no reason why MO cannot be an extremely tight race considering those voters are turned off by Trump.

Yea, a lot of posters see Missouri like another Utah or Idaho (ok, exaggerating a slight bit). It is not.

Hillary is virtually tied with Trump, despite no efforts on the Democratic side to win the state. She can win the state with all this political turmoil.

Long term, I certainly think Georgia, Arizona, even Texas are  better investments for Democrats. But, in 2012.. there were many voters who voted for Romney AND Nixon, McCaskill, and Koster and to a lesser extent Jason Kander and Clint Zweifel.  In fact, perceived liberal Claire McCaskill largely outperformed polls. So, the voters who are willing to vote for a Democrat exist, and enough exist to make a majority.

Before someone compares MO Democrats to West Virginia Democrats.. you really can not. This is not comparable to West Virginia. The Obama's administration "attack on coal", makes an entirely different situation in West Virginia then Missouri.

So true. The "MO is the next WV!" meme on Atlas is so tiresome.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

The whole "Voters agree with dems on issues thing" is really overblown by PPP. At the end of the day, 85% of the electorate doesn't care much about the positions of who they are supporting, they only care about the party label. Take Gun Control, for instance. If a democrat proposes expanding background checks, they're "Treasonous! Treasonous! How Dare you take our guns!". When Pat Toomey jumps on a bill to close the gun show loophole, suddenly it's "Oh, nothing to see here. He's just doing what he has to to get re-elected." Also consider how JBE was called out as an "Obama Liberal" even though he disagreed with Obama on many issues and had the endorsement of several sheriff organizations despite Democrats supposedly being the "anti-police party".