SC-The Feldman Group (D): Tied in 4-way, Trump +2 in Head to Head

[dspNY]

I said that Clinton trails by 5 in SC on the internal poll thread because of my 5 point rule on internals. The one caveat is that the head to head matchup (Trump +2) matches the 538 Nowcast and polls-only so it could be true (although I think it is still a blue-tinted poll)

[dspNY]

I googled the Feldman Group and they were Tammy Baldwin's internal pollster when she won her Senate race in 2012 (WI). The one poll they released back then looked like this:

"The Feldman Group for the Baldwin campaign (Sept. 9-12; 800 likely Wisconsin voters) gives their candidate a 50-45 percent lead over the Republican nominee."

http://www.ellisinsight.com/tag/feldman-group/

Baldwin won 51.4% to 45.9% so in that once instance their polling was ridiculously accurate. Different state, different electorate though

[dspNY]

Let's not start the unskewing crap, because we all know how that ended that time. This is not the first poll to show South Carolina in single digits, even the Republican firm Gravis shows it close. The fact that South Carolina is even this close goes to show that this election is practically over.

To be fair, a public poll commissioned by a party is basically one half step from a campaign internal poll. Lots of observers, including myself, exclude partisan polls. (You're right that nonpartisan polls are showing a close race too.)

Which one the PPP Poll was commissioned by the State Democratic Party

I'll generally discount internal-type public release polls from either side of the aisle.

This a good practice.

I add a few points to the other candidate when internals are discussed unless you have a situation where the candidate's own internals show them trailing by a lot

[dspNY]

Other Feldman Group polls from the last GE cycle:

NH-Gov: Hassan 44, Lamontagne 39 (October 10). Hassan won by 12 (54-42)

RI-1: Cicilline 46, Doherty 36 (September 17). Cicilline won by 12 (53-41). Cicilline was the Dem

CA-30: Sherman 51, Berman 26 (October 14). Sherman won by 20 (60-40). This was a Dem vs. Dem GE matchup

So they were definitely in the ballpark on all their polls and even underestimated Hassan and Cicilline in their races

[dspNY]

Again, I told you so.

Can everybody stop saying I'm insane now? Like it or not, South Carolina is a pure tossup in this race.

No it's Lean R until we see both of these things happen:

1. Clinton leads in a SC poll
2. She starts airing ads in SC

[dspNY]

Again, I told you so.

Can everybody stop saying I'm insane now? Like it or not, South Carolina is a pure tossup in this race.

No it's Lean R until we see both of these things happen:

1. Clinton leads in a SC poll
2. She starts airing ads in SC

You clearly are an illiterate. This poll is a tie and that should be - and is - the only qualification, the bare definition, of a "tossup"

We're on the same side here! AZ and GA are tossups because Clinton has led in polls in both states (and trailed) and has invested ground game money there. If we see Clinton move money into SC and a Clinton +1 poll then it is a tossup. SC's history is too Republican for me to call it a tossup yet. Lean R or Tilt R from an optimistic Clinton perspective