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Author Topic: FL - Florida Atlantic U: Trump +2 (4-way)  (Read 1854 times)
Seriously?
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« on: August 24, 2016, 08:30:36 am »

Florida Atlantic University Poll Trump +2
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 2%
Other 2%
Undecided 5%

Aug. 19-22; 1,200 LV; MOE +/- 2.7%

http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepi-polls/index.aspx#.V72japgrKUk
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 08:41:22 am by Seriously? »Logged
Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 08:33:35 am »

Junk, though the other poll with Clinton up 16 is also nonsense.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 08:39:07 am »

538 adds 3-4 points to Clinton for this poll, just like they added 3-4 points to Trump for the St. Leo poll.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 08:40:14 am »

This actually includes Stein, she is at 2%.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 08:42:08 am »

Wow they had an interesting question in there, they also polled the exact same matchup (Clinton, Trump, Stein) except they used Weld instead of Johnson and Weld got 1% less than Johnson and Stein got 1% more than with Johnson.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 08:43:39 am »

This has Clinton winning Hispanics 50-40 and Blacks 68-20. I guess that's how you get a Trump 2 point lead.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 08:43:50 am »

This actually includes Stein, she is at 2%.
Yes. I changed that. It wasn't in the press release. Changed it once I went on the website and looked at the cross tabs.

Cross-tabs seem reasonable. D+2 sample. 54.5/45.5 F/M 66.7% white.

At the end of the day, it's a university poll and should be treated as such.
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 08:47:58 am by Seriously? »Logged
Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 08:45:17 am »

This has Clinton winning Hispanics 50-40 and Blacks 68-20. I guess that's how you get a Trump 2 point lead.

Yeah, I'll stick with the average of the 3 polls, which is Clinton +7.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 08:48:00 am »

FAU did Spanish-language polling for GE match-ups prior to the Florida primary, but the crosstabs here don't have nearly as much detail as those did, so it's tough to see if that continued.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 08:48:12 am »

This is actually Trumps worst performance in this particular poll... He was up 3 in January, and he was up 8 in November 2015. Seems like these guys only report once a semester. Wink
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2016, 08:54:47 am »

Well I guess this poll and the St. Leo poll can average each other out.  Hooray for polling aggregates!

Although this poll is already up on RCP, while the St. Leo poll still hasn't been.  What a shocker.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2016, 10:30:10 am »

It's probably Clinton+3 to +6 right now. Trump can't get 20% of the Florida black vote, his ceiling is probably high single digits and his ceiling with Hispanics is probably in the low 30s with the Cubans ditching Trump.
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2016, 11:09:37 am »

lol, interesting how a poll showing Trump ahead in FL seems nearly as hard to believe as a poll showing Hillary up by 14. Also, if you like this poll, realize that Rubio is only overperforming Trump by 3, instead of 22. Wink
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2016, 11:47:31 am »

LOL... I knew it. Trump tweeted out this poll. The man is a joke.
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2016, 11:53:28 am »

Amusing that this poll has Rubio up 5 whereas the St. Leo poll where Clinton led by 14 had Rubio up 8.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2016, 12:01:40 pm »

LOL... I knew it. Trump tweeted out this poll. The man is a joke.
No. He knows how to shift perceptions and rile up his base. Most candidates do this -- if they are smart.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2016, 12:06:22 pm »

LOL... I knew it. Trump tweeted out this poll. The man is a joke.
No. He knows how to shift perceptions and rile up his base. Most candidates do this -- if they are smart.
Literally no candidates tweet out random polls showing them up 2 points in must-win states.
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Buh her emails!
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2016, 12:25:44 pm »

LOL... I knew it. Trump tweeted out this poll. The man is a joke.

He even tweeted a poll with Hillary leading and said "great poll!" Lol
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2016, 04:12:46 pm »

Seems off, but I wonder if FL could potentially be more favorable to Trump than NC this year?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2016, 04:12:55 pm »

New Poll: Florida President by Florida Atlantic University on 2016-08-22

Summary: D: 41%, R: 43%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2016, 04:14:13 pm »

I love how (R)CP includes this but not the St. Leo poll. What exactly makes this one more credible? Roll Eyes
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Castro
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2016, 04:28:01 pm »

I love how (R)CP includes this but not the St. Leo poll. What exactly makes this one more credible? Roll Eyes

For RCP, it's more credible because it has Trump leading.
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#WalkAwayFromDesantis
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 04:31:36 pm »

LOL... I knew it. Trump tweeted out this poll. The man is a joke.

Trump also tweeted out a Reuters poll today that in big letters said Trump +3. In small letters below it, it said the full results were Hillary 47- Trump 44. The +3 for Trump was his change since the last poll. I almost burst out laughing at the misleading title.
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nirvanayoda
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2016, 05:36:59 pm »

What I find interesting is that Rubio's vote share remains similar despite Trump's wild swings between the Trump-favorable and Clinton-favorable polls.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2016, 11:13:51 pm »

Florida polls becoming the new Michigan polls?
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