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Author Topic: NC-Monmouth: Burr +2  (Read 1004 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 24, 2016, 12:11:34 pm »

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_082416/

Burr - 45%
Ross - 43%
Haugh (L) - 4%
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King Francis I
windjammer
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 12:13:41 pm »

Probably accurate
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 12:27:46 pm »

Wow, maybe this race really is tightening. He's only overperforming Trump by 4. Still Lean R for now, but closer to Toss-Up than Likely R.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 01:12:44 pm »

Yes definitely a 2008 redux in motion.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 01:15:05 pm »

The North Carolina Republican Party needs to just go all in on saving Burr. My gut says Trump loses by 3, McCrory by 6, the other down allot officers (LG, AG, Treasurer) by 1-2, but Burr narrowly wins by half a point.
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JMT
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 01:16:45 pm »

Race is approaching (if not already at) tossup territory. I have a feeling that Ross '16 will be a redux of Hagan '08; a relatively anonymous Dem state legislator, who was considered a mediocre recruit without much of a chance at winning, starts polling very competitively just months before election day and pulls out a win over the Republican incumbent.

I agree with this. I think Ross will end up winning, very similar to Hagan's win in 2008.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 03:08:08 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Monmouth University on 2016-08-23

Summary: D: 43%, R: 45%, I: 4%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 04:52:54 pm »

Burr broke the streak of North Carolina senators losing re-election. I don't think he has the luck to do it twice.
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pppolitics
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 09:45:35 pm »

You have to wonder how would Kay Hagan be doing right now if she's running again Burr.
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Miles
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 09:56:02 pm »

You have to wonder how would Kay Hagan be doing right now if she's running again Burr.

RIP Sad

As much as I love her, I always said Democrats should run a fresh face this time. Her numbers were just too damaged from the 2014 campaign.
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Let Dogs Survive
MormDem
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2016, 10:15:24 pm »

Burr broke the streak of North Carolina senators losing re-election. I don't think he has the luck to do it twice.

No, Kay Hagan's defeat is just proof that seat shifted. Tillis is a dead man in 2020, and who knows about 2026
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2016, 11:17:41 pm »

You have to wonder how would Kay Hagan be doing right now if she's running again Burr.

RIP Sad

As much as I love her, I always said Democrats should run a fresh face this time. Her numbers were just too damaged from the 2014 campaign.

Hagan rematch 2020?
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2016, 11:37:03 pm »

I can't imagine Burr losing by 8.5%. I could see this as somewhat of a 2014 redux, though (with the parties reversed.) McCrory, on the other hand, very well could get Dole'd.
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JMT
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« Reply #13 on: August 25, 2016, 11:37:51 am »

You have to wonder how would Kay Hagan be doing right now if she's running again Burr.

RIP Sad

As much as I love her, I always said Democrats should run a fresh face this time. Her numbers were just too damaged from the 2014 campaign.

Hagan rematch 2020?

Wouldn't be surprised if Hagan tries again in 2020. I think Tillis will be quite vulnerable and Hagan could probably defeat him. And that'll be 6 years after her defeat, so any negative feelings about her may be forgotten. I think that's why Hagan didn't run this year, she's waiting for 2020. I think nominating Ross was a good choice, a fresh face against a relatively bland senator. Ross was never considered a star recruit, but I think that ended up being a positive thing for Democrats
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2016, 01:24:12 am »

I wonder how the polls would look right now if Heath Shuler was the nominee?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2016, 01:58:29 am »

I wonder how the polls would look right now if Heath Shuler was the nominee?

Shuler is overrated, but he'd have higher name rec than Ross. And honestly I think name rec is the only thing keeping Burr afloat right now. We're gonna see his lead drop like a rock when the election REALLY ramps up.
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