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Author Topic: CNN Arizona and North Carolina Polls: AZ: Trump +5 NC: Clinton +1  (Read 3188 times)
Classic Conservative
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« on: August 24, 2016, 03:18:40 pm »

Arizona:
Trump 43
Clinton 38
Johnson 12
Stein 4

North Carolina:
Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 11
« Last Edit: August 24, 2016, 03:20:36 pm by Classic Conservative »Logged
Heisenberg
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« Reply #1 on: August 24, 2016, 03:20:43 pm »

I think Arizona will be close, but I'm not that worried. North Carolina will also be extremely close. McCrory will probably go down, but Burr only falls if Trump loses by 3 or more, I think. That's about how much he's been overperforming Trump.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #2 on: August 24, 2016, 03:22:34 pm »

Link?
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amdcpus
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« Reply #3 on: August 24, 2016, 03:26:45 pm »

Link?

http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/24/politics/arizona-north-carolina-polls-trump-clinton/index.html
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Ebsy
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« Reply #4 on: August 24, 2016, 03:30:02 pm »

Odd for CNN to start polling states now.
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NeverAgain
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« Reply #5 on: August 24, 2016, 03:32:31 pm »


Thanks.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #6 on: August 24, 2016, 03:34:12 pm »

Best news in a long time.
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #7 on: August 24, 2016, 03:43:14 pm »

High Johnson numbers persist. Interesting. I wish more polls would start doing second preference among his supporters in case he collapses later in the season.
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Fargobison
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« Reply #8 on: August 24, 2016, 03:49:58 pm »

So in NC....Clinton leads Trump w/white college-graduates by 8 points. Trump leads by 42 w/whites who don't have college degrees.

The flight of educated whites continues to haunt Donnie boy.
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« Reply #9 on: August 24, 2016, 03:50:46 pm »

Best news in a long time.

Best news? AZ looking competitive and NC going narrowly for Clinton while the states he actually needs are completely out of range?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2016, 03:52:57 pm »

Stein's not getting 4% in Arizona of all places lol. Good polls for Trump I suppose. Has anyone found the crosstabs?
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darthpi
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« Reply #11 on: August 24, 2016, 03:56:08 pm »

Those are both within the ballpark of what I would expect. Johnson is performing better in North Carolina than I would have guessed.
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amdcpus
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« Reply #12 on: August 24, 2016, 04:03:46 pm »

Those are both within the ballpark of what I would expect. Johnson is performing better in North Carolina than I would have guessed.

He was at 11% in NBC's last poll there a week ago and he was at 10% there in Gravis' poll a couple days ago.
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darthpi
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« Reply #13 on: August 24, 2016, 04:07:06 pm »

Those are both within the ballpark of what I would expect. Johnson is performing better in North Carolina than I would have guessed.

He was at 11% in NBC's last poll there a week ago and he was at 10% there in Gravis' poll a couple days ago.

I guess I'm just surprised that that level of support is holding up in poll after poll.
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« Reply #14 on: August 24, 2016, 04:09:21 pm »

Best news in a long time.

Best news? AZ looking competitive and NC going narrowly for Clinton while the states he actually needs are completely out of range?

Well, Trump has no chance of winning sadly, but I want a reason to believe that he is at least as acceptable a candidate as scum like Romney. Leading by 7 in Arizona (head-to-head as you all always use) and an exact tie in North Carolina is about all I can ask for. It simply means there is a Republican problem even more than a Trump problem. which is a very good thing.
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« Reply #15 on: August 24, 2016, 04:11:26 pm »

AZ is the Democrats' Minnesota. They always hope it flips because of favorable demographic trends, but it never happens.
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Torie
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« Reply #16 on: August 24, 2016, 04:13:37 pm »

AZ is the Democrats' Minnesota. They always hope it flips because of favorable demographic trends, but it never happens.

The thing is about AZ though, is that the Pubs get a bigger chunk of the Hispanics outside the Cuban zone than in most places. Will that adequately hold given the Trump presentation?
« Last Edit: August 25, 2016, 09:41:14 am by Torie »Logged
Vosem
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« Reply #17 on: August 24, 2016, 04:15:31 pm »

Best news in a long time.

Best news? AZ looking competitive and NC going narrowly for Clinton while the states he actually needs are completely out of range?

Well, Trump has no chance of winning sadly, but I want a reason to believe that he is at least as acceptable a candidate as scum like Romney. Leading by 7 in Arizona (head-to-head as you all always use) and an exact tie in North Carolina is about all I can ask for. It simply means there is a Republican problem even more than a Trump problem. which is a very good thing.

Problem is, McCain leads in the poll by 13 points and Burr by 3. Pretty much all indicators have been that there is very explicitly a Trump problem, as opposed to a Republican problem, and that a normal Republican would probably be edging out Hillary.

The reactions to Johnson doing well in this thread are pretty hilarious too. If he does deflate (which is unfortunately very possible), certainly nothing will happen before the debates begin. At that point there will either be a consolidation around T v. C, or alternatively if one of the candidates performs very poorly bleeding to third-parties and undecided could intensify (though the former is likelier, I believe).
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heatcharger
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« Reply #18 on: August 24, 2016, 04:18:21 pm »

AZ is the Democrats' Minnesota. They always hope it flips because of favorable demographic trends, but it never happens.

Settle down. It's one poll from a pollster who rarely polls individual states. That CBS/YouGov poll from two weeks ago had it at Trump +2. In aggregate, Arizona is way closer than Minnesota ever was (2000 was a fluke because of a certain Green Party candidate). We'll see how it holds up.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #19 on: August 24, 2016, 04:21:41 pm »

New Poll: North Carolina President by CNN/ORC on 2016-08-23

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #20 on: August 24, 2016, 04:21:44 pm »

Incumbency advantage is worth a few points...

McCain is a 5-term Senator.

Trump is also outperforming local races in Indiana and Missouri. The latter features a Republican touted as a potential national contender somehow. These races do not indicate the story of how Trump will be perceived, and my hope is that that perception will be as a man who built on what Romney did but was locked out of the electoral college. Weaker opponent, oh well.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2016, 04:23:48 pm »

New Poll: Arizona President by CNN/ORC on 2016-08-23

Summary: D: 38%, R: 43%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 04:32:55 pm »

JUNK POLL!!!

I have Clinton winning AZ so this is nonsense.
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Trapsy
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« Reply #23 on: August 24, 2016, 04:39:14 pm »

Debates are gonna be huge.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #24 on: August 24, 2016, 04:41:31 pm »

Although there are always outliers (like those freaky Florida uni polls), most state polls lately seem to be consistent with a Clinton lead of 5-7 points nationally.
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