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  Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States  (Read 12258 times)
Seriously?
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« Reply #175 on: September 17, 2016, 02:56:28 pm »

Google's samples are 1-week and generally too small in smaller states. Google just balances their samples based on age and gender. They don't even ask any other questions.

Google doesn't balance by racial demographics?  

Wow, no wonder their polls are so useless...
It's literally like a 3-4 question poll.. Likelihood to vote, Voter Intention, Gender and Age.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #176 on: September 17, 2016, 03:15:44 pm »

Google's samples are 1-week and generally too small in smaller states. Google just balances their samples based on age and gender. They don't even ask any other questions.

Google doesn't balance by racial demographics?  

Wow, no wonder their polls are so useless...
It's literally like a 3-4 question poll.. Likelihood to vote, Voter Intention, Gender and Age.

I don't mind any polls, but Google is weird (though it has B rating on 538). One can probably use it apple-to-apple comparison (as 538 does). But... it still is weird...
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #177 on: September 17, 2016, 04:29:52 pm »



Reading this correctly, it's Battleground Michigan for all the marbles.

Seriously? Do you have a link so I can pull up the statewide numbers.

As an older man my eyesight isn't nearly as good as it used to be and wanted to be able to update my spreadsheet without squinting. Wink
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #178 on: September 17, 2016, 04:38:01 pm »

Seriously? Do you have a link so I can pull up the statewide numbers.

As an older man my eyesight isn't nearly as good as it used to be and wanted to be able to update my spreadsheet without squinting. Wink

http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #179 on: September 17, 2016, 04:53:49 pm »

Seriously? Do you have a link so I can pull up the statewide numbers.

As an older man my eyesight isn't nearly as good as it used to be and wanted to be able to update my spreadsheet without squinting. Wink

http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

Thanks Little Big!

You are absolutely adorable, especially on the polling threads.... Wink
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #180 on: September 17, 2016, 08:21:30 pm »

Here's the map, if anyone's interested, LOL:

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michelle
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« Reply #181 on: September 17, 2016, 08:28:08 pm »

Here's the map, if anyone's interested, LOL:



Vermont to the right of both Carolinas? Sure. . .
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #182 on: September 17, 2016, 08:47:50 pm »

Vermont red, Maine toss-up, NH blue.

Congrats TN Volunteer!!
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Warren Peace🦋
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« Reply #183 on: September 18, 2016, 12:55:22 am »

#BattlegroundWyoming

Here's the map, if anyone's interested, LOL:



Vermont to the right of both Carolinas? Sure. . .

Berniebros obvz
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Lean Branson
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« Reply #184 on: September 18, 2016, 12:59:09 am »

Pollsters re-weight their poll results to match a pre-determined demographic breakdown, which varies from pollster to pollster based on their own assumptions of the race. If they didn't, the raw numbers would be all over the place, since the sample size isn't large enough to capture the proper demographic proportions. This is not the same thing as the "registered" versus "likely" voter issue--that's based on the questions you were discussing earlier, but not the demographic breakdown.

"Unskewing," at least as it pertains to the action often derided here and in political polling circles in general, usually involves saying you don't believe a poll because they didn't sample enough Latinos, or blacks, or something along those lines. That is not the same as what's being done here, which is arguing that the poll's demographic weighting seems unreasonable.
Lol, what? 99% of pollsters re-weight RV demographic to match RV Census Bureau statistic. Own assumption LMAO

#uneducatedUnskewersHillary2016

I'm talking about the pollsters' demographic turnout breakdown. That being said, I am not sure where I remember reading about that (FiveThirtyEight?), and it's very possible I'm remembering wrong. Memory is a fickle thing. If that's the case, disregard my previous message.

That being said, your attitude is out of line (if I'm wrong, a simple correction would have sufficed). Have a nice election season.

It would be nice if the moderators enforced some level of civil discourse, wouldn't it?
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #185 on: September 18, 2016, 07:59:48 am »

At least this is better than Google. GeoIP, LOL.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #186 on: September 18, 2016, 08:11:49 am »

If Hillary actually wins California by 39% and doesn't win the Presidency, I will be a full-fledged secessionist (and hopefully we could also take Washington and Oregon as well).
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #187 on: September 18, 2016, 08:25:55 am »

If Hillary actually wins California by 39% and doesn't win the Presidency, I will be a full-fledged secessionist (and hopefully we could also take Washington and Oregon as well).
I think if CA leaves, NY-MA leaves, too. We would have our own little 1991.
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Ozymandias
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« Reply #188 on: September 21, 2016, 11:45:19 am »

Apologies if someone has already posted this message about Ipsos Polls from electoral-vote.com:

electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep21.html#item-11

some of the more interesting quotes...

"We Are Removing the Ipsos Polls from the Database"

"In nine of the 44 states Ipsos has polled, the Ipsos and non-Ipsos results differ by 10 or more points. That is way outside the margin of error (usually about 4%). In 21 states, the difference between Ipsos and non-Ipsos was 5 points or more."

"Interestingly enough, Ipsos is not biased. Averaged across all states, Ipsos favors the Democrats by a very small margin: Only 0.70%. That is fine. Except that it gets this small margin by having large errors cancel out."

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Seriously?
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« Reply #189 on: September 26, 2016, 12:36:34 pm »

Latest update 9/16-9/25, 1 or 2 or 3-week polls, depending.

259-191 Clinton. Lots of close states though. OH and NC in the Clinton camp.



http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
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afleitch
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« Reply #190 on: September 26, 2016, 12:51:59 pm »

Right,

We have White turnout at 68%, Black turnout at 52%, Asian and other turnout at 40% and Hispanic turnout at 36%. So again historic highs for white voters and historic lows, bordering on mid term lows for everyone else...
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Ebsy
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« Reply #191 on: September 26, 2016, 01:10:02 pm »

Their turnout model really is awful.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
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« Reply #192 on: September 26, 2016, 01:12:15 pm »

Right,

We have White turnout at 68%, Black turnout at 52%, Asian and other turnout at 40% and Hispanic turnout at 36%. So again historic highs for white voters and historic lows, bordering on mid term lows for everyone else...
Yeah... whoever designed the Ipsos demos model needs to be banned from polling for life. Just absurd
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #193 on: September 26, 2016, 01:28:16 pm »

Ugh... this garbage get's added to 538, and then Nate chastises people for having less faith in his model. Good grief.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #194 on: September 26, 2016, 01:50:56 pm »

results look pretty reasonable actually
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Seriously?
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« Reply #195 on: October 03, 2016, 02:12:12 pm »
« Edited: October 03, 2016, 02:30:21 pm by Seriously? »

9/29 update. Some pre-debate and some post-debate numbers. Roughly 50/50.



Reuters Link: http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #196 on: October 03, 2016, 02:17:54 pm »

9/29 update. Some pre-debate and some post-debate numbers. Roughly 50/50.



These really don't bounce around much do they. Again, MI/WI being tied is not credible, SC will not be 8 points left of Georgia, and clearly this is an outlier in terms of OH... otherwise nothing really obviously wrong.
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dspNY
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« Reply #197 on: October 03, 2016, 02:21:18 pm »

Tuning those numbers to likely turnout percentages, you get an easy Clinton win. Their African-American and Hispanic turnout numbers are very low and they still have Clinton winning
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afleitch
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« Reply #198 on: October 03, 2016, 02:27:43 pm »

Adjust racial turnouts to 2012 levels, then it's 2012 with Clinton picking up NC, SC (SC which we can perhaps ignore) but losing Iowa and with Colorado being a tie.
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TC 25
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« Reply #199 on: October 05, 2016, 12:44:24 pm »

Are these polls legit?  They seem to contradict the trends.
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