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« Reply #200 on: October 22, 2016, 09:52:07 am »

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #201 on: October 22, 2016, 09:58:23 am »

So, what's the count? 328-210?
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mencken
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« Reply #202 on: October 22, 2016, 10:09:36 am »

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?

Cough cough herding
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #203 on: October 22, 2016, 10:26:20 am »

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?

Cough cough herding

Shouldn't that be "moo moo"? Smiley
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #204 on: October 22, 2016, 11:26:31 am »

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?

Cough cough herding

Shouldn't that be "moo moo"? Smiley
Or oink oink squeeel in this case.
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dspNY
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« Reply #205 on: October 29, 2016, 01:04:38 pm »

Reuters State of the Nation polls, October 27:

National: Clinton 47, Trump 40

Alabama: Trump 51, Clinton 39
Alaska: Insufficient data, likely to go GOP
Arizona: Clinton 43, Trump 42
Arkansas: Trump 53, Clinton 34
California: Clinton 65, Trump 26
Colorado: Clinton 46, Trump 43
Connecticut: Clinton 51, Trump 36
Delaware: Clinton 48, Trump 36
DC: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Florida: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Trump 48, Clinton 43
Hawaii: High confidence Clinton, margin uncertain
Idaho: Trump 54, Clinton 30
Illinois: Clinton 56, Trump 35
Indiana: Trump 54, Clinton 39
Iowa: Clinton 44, Trump 42
Kansas: Trump 52, Clinton 38
Kentucky: Trump 56, Clinton 38
Louisiana: Trump 53, Clinton 34
Maine: Clinton 46, Trump 39
Maryland: Clinton 54, Trump 34
Massachusetts: Clinton 56, Trump 27
Michigan: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Minnesota: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Mississippi: Trump 52, Clinton 33
Missouri: Trump 48, Clinton 42
Montana: Trump 48, Clinton 32
Nebraska: Trump 50, Clinton 35
Nevada: Clinton 40, Trump 40
New Hampshire: Clinton 44, Trump 40
New Jersey: Clinton 51, Trump 34
New Mexico: Clinton 49, Trump 39
New York: Clinton 52, Trump 30
North Carolina: Clinton 48, Trump 44
North Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Ohio: Clinton 45, Trump 45
Oklahoma: Trump 52, Clinton 36
Oregon: Clinton 46, Trump 38
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48, Trump 46
Rhode Island: Insufficient data, will go Dem
South Carolina: Trump 49, Clinton 44
South Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Tennessee: Trump 43, Clinton 35
Texas: Trump 48, Clinton 34
Utah: Trump 44, Clinton 31 (no McMullin option)
Vermont: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Virginia: Clinton 48, Trump 39
Washington: Clinton 47, Trump 37
West Virginia: Trump 56, Clinton 37
Wisconsin: Clinton 47, Trump 42
Wyoming: Insufficient data, will go GOP
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #206 on: October 29, 2016, 01:16:08 pm »

Reuters State of the Nation polls, October 27:

National: Clinton 47, Trump 40

Alabama: Trump 51, Clinton 39
Alaska: Insufficient data, likely to go GOP
Arizona: Clinton 43, Trump 42
Arkansas: Trump 53, Clinton 34
California: Clinton 65, Trump 26
Colorado: Clinton 46, Trump 43
Connecticut: Clinton 51, Trump 36
Delaware: Clinton 48, Trump 36
DC: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Florida: Clinton 49, Trump 45
Georgia: Trump 48, Clinton 43
Hawaii: High confidence Clinton, margin uncertain
Idaho: Trump 54, Clinton 30
Illinois: Clinton 56, Trump 35
Indiana: Trump 54, Clinton 39
Iowa: Clinton 44, Trump 42
Kansas: Trump 52, Clinton 38
Kentucky: Trump 56, Clinton 38
Louisiana: Trump 53, Clinton 34
Maine: Clinton 46, Trump 39
Maryland: Clinton 54, Trump 34
Massachusetts: Clinton 56, Trump 27
Michigan: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Minnesota: Clinton 41, Trump 37
Mississippi: Trump 52, Clinton 33
Missouri: Trump 48, Clinton 42
Montana: Trump 48, Clinton 32
Nebraska: Trump 50, Clinton 35
Nevada: Clinton 40, Trump 40
New Hampshire: Clinton 44, Trump 40
New Jersey: Clinton 51, Trump 34
New Mexico: Clinton 49, Trump 39
New York: Clinton 52, Trump 30
North Carolina: Clinton 48, Trump 44
North Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Ohio: Clinton 45, Trump 45
Oklahoma: Trump 52, Clinton 36
Oregon: Clinton 46, Trump 38
Pennsylvania: Clinton 48, Trump 46
Rhode Island: Insufficient data, will go Dem
South Carolina: Trump 49, Clinton 44
South Dakota: Margin uncertain, likely GOP
Tennessee: Trump 43, Clinton 35
Texas: Trump 48, Clinton 34
Utah: Trump 44, Clinton 31 (no McMullin option)
Vermont: Insufficient data, will go Dem
Virginia: Clinton 48, Trump 39
Washington: Clinton 47, Trump 37
West Virginia: Trump 56, Clinton 37
Wisconsin: Clinton 47, Trump 42
Wyoming: Insufficient data, will go GOP
Its right because Hillary is up by 4 in Florida.
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Hammy
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« Reply #207 on: October 29, 2016, 01:20:11 pm »

Margins seem legit. I like that they didn't try to force a result on states with too little data, that gives the poll a bit more credibility at least than other state-by-state ones.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #208 on: October 29, 2016, 02:17:08 pm »

Friewal holds. Good to see Clinton with a nice buffer against Trumpmentum.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #209 on: October 29, 2016, 02:53:45 pm »

I haven't followed this one closely.  The latest numbers look pretty good for Clinton in isolation, but how are the trends from previous datasets?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #210 on: October 29, 2016, 03:01:18 pm »

I haven't followed this one closely.  The latest numbers look pretty good for Clinton in isolation, but how are the trends from previous datasets?

They didn't change any 538's models. OK, by 0.1%.
But 538 already was pretty good for Trump, giving him about 20% chance of winning.
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ReapSow
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« Reply #211 on: October 29, 2016, 03:03:28 pm »

But 538 already was pretty good for Trump, giving him about 20% chance of winning.

A 1 in 5 chance of winning is pretty good?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #212 on: October 29, 2016, 03:08:32 pm »

But 538 already was pretty good for Trump, giving him about 20% chance of winning.

A 1 in 5 chance of winning is pretty good?

Noone in the world would have better chances after all the scandals Cheesy

Joking aside, you are right. I meant relatively good [compared to other models].
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #213 on: October 29, 2016, 03:08:42 pm »

But 538 already was pretty good for Trump, giving him about 20% chance of winning.

A 1 in 5 chance of winning is pretty good?

I assume he means in comparison to other models, which have Clinton anywhere from 87% to 99% at present (see the Upshot page at http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html for a summary about halfway down the page).  538 is more bullish on Trump because they have more uncertainty built into their model; when you're behind, uncertainty is a good thing because you want things to change.
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