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  Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States
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« Reply #25 on: August 26, 2016, 10:06:37 pm »

It saddens me that Nate included this into the 538 model because it threw everything on a wack.
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Figueira
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« Reply #26 on: August 26, 2016, 10:12:56 pm »

Nebraska: Clinton+3. No wonder it's so weird on 538.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #27 on: August 26, 2016, 10:26:40 pm »

Not with

(1) Trump up 11 in Indiana

(2) Trump winning southwestern Virginia, which is culturally similar to Kentucky, by a landslide margin. (West of a line from about Winchester to the western suburbs of Richmond, Trump is doing quite well in Virginia. Of course most Virginians live to the east of that line and are going heavily for Clinton).

(3) no event that should bring Kentucky into line with a state nearly even -- like Missouri or North Carolina.

Corroboration necessary.   
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Seriously?
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« Reply #28 on: August 26, 2016, 10:31:39 pm »

I refuse to format this junk, but here you go. The latest data, including battleground Kentucky, Reuters doesn't know who wins DC and the 14-point New Hampshire Trump surge!

State     Clinton   Trump
Alabama   42%   48%
Alaska      
Arizona   43%   46%
Arkansas   39%   48%
California   61%   25%
Colorado   43%   40%
Connecticut   50%   37%
Delaware      
Florida   49%   42%
Georgia   43%   46%
Hawaii      
Idaho   29%   49%
Illinois   53%   26%
Indiana   34%   55%
Iowa   43%   40%
Kansas   37%   48%
Kentucky   43%   45%
Louisiana   39%   50%
Maine   39%   40%
Maryland   53%   30%
Massachusetts   46%   33%
Michigan   43%   44%
Minnesota   44%   35%
Mississippi   37%   53%
Missouri   40%   46%
Montana      
Nebraska   45%   41%
Nevada   41%   39%
New Hampshire   34%   48%
New Jersey   48%   34%
New Mexico      
New York   53%   31%
North Carolina   48%   44%
North Dakota      
Ohio   47%   41%
Oklahoma   32%   54%
Oregon   45%   37%
Pennsylvania   50%   43%
Rhode Island      
South Carolina   46%   46%
South Dakota      
Tennessee   33%   46%
Texas   32%   45%
The District of Columbia      
Utah   34%   39%
Vermont      
Virginia   48%   37%
Washington   49%   33%
West Virginia   39%   47%
Wisconsin   36%   39%
Wyoming      
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Holmes
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« Reply #29 on: August 26, 2016, 10:35:13 pm »

That 36% margin in CA though, lol
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Ebsy
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« Reply #30 on: August 26, 2016, 11:08:37 pm »

Clinton leading in Nebraska lmao.
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Sorenroy
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« Reply #31 on: August 27, 2016, 12:17:37 am »
« Edited: August 27, 2016, 06:13:12 pm by Sorenroy »

There Nebraska statewide has Clinton leading Trump by four points (538). I'll just put that out there.

Also, still not sure how 538 is getting the sample sizes. And why would a polling company even put out polls with samples under 200?

Edit: I'm not trying to cherrypick here, just showing that something is very wrong with their polls.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #32 on: August 27, 2016, 02:12:24 am »

There Nebraska statewide has Clinton leading Trump by four points (538). I'll just put that out there.

Also, still not sure how 538 is getting the sample sizes. And why would a polling company even put out polls with samples under 200?
I remember You Gov doing something similar in either 2014 or 2012. The sample sizes for some of the states were putrid. This thing has an interesting methodology where some states are 1, 2 or 3 week samples depending on the sample size.

Reuters/Ipsos must be supplying the information to 538. I don't see anything on either Reuters' or Ispos' websites.
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Abraham Washington
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« Reply #33 on: August 27, 2016, 06:52:58 am »

http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

Also up by 1% in Maine.
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Abraham Washington
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« Reply #34 on: August 27, 2016, 06:55:40 am »

Also LLR will be pleased to see battleground South Carolina.
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Gustaf
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« Reply #35 on: August 27, 2016, 06:56:06 am »

Yeah, and Clinton is up by 5 in Nebraska and winning overall in the electoral college. Tongue

(you probably shouldn't cherry pick good results for your side out of a clearly crap set of polls that still shows your candidate losing by a large margin if you don't wanna look like a tool)
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #36 on: August 27, 2016, 06:56:53 am »

Is Florida deep blue?
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #37 on: August 27, 2016, 07:07:36 am »

That New Hampshire... thing has a sample size of 133; polled over twenty days.  They basically asked seven people a day for three weeks and thought that made a scientific poll worth publishing.  Factoring on what the MoE probably is the race is probably still within it, which says a lot about the thing.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #38 on: August 27, 2016, 07:19:51 am »

Wow... are things that bad?
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Torie
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« Reply #39 on: August 27, 2016, 07:20:31 am »

Where's TN?
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #40 on: August 27, 2016, 07:23:20 am »

Great news on these polls, obviously FL and Via are heading in Clinton's direction.
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Mehmentum
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« Reply #41 on: August 27, 2016, 07:42:34 am »

Also from Reuters/Ipsos:
Trump +2 in Kentucky.  Clinton up 4 in Nebraska! South Carolina is a tie but Trump is leading by 1 point in Michigan and 3 points in Wisconsin.
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Special K
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« Reply #42 on: August 27, 2016, 07:43:19 am »

So I think we can all agree these are pretty sh**tty polls.
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whitesox130
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« Reply #43 on: August 27, 2016, 07:49:18 am »

I thought Reuters was a good pollster...?
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LLR
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« Reply #44 on: August 27, 2016, 07:51:35 am »

Also LLR will be pleased to see battleground South Carolina.

ayy lmao
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #45 on: August 27, 2016, 07:55:36 am »

Clinton's only winning NEB 2 and ME 2 is competitive as well.
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michelle
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« Reply #46 on: August 27, 2016, 08:25:20 am »

Trump under 50 in WV? WI to the right of IA? Trump up 11 in LA?

I changed the turnout to 100% and got TX to the left of AZ and LA looked about right.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #47 on: August 27, 2016, 09:04:10 am »


lol this looks like one of Dick Morris' 2008 maps. hilarious!
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mencken
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« Reply #48 on: August 27, 2016, 09:07:43 am »

I thought Reuters was a good pollster...?

By definition 2 out of every 50 polls is going to have a result outside of the margin of error of the actual result. If we assume a sample size of ~350 (which seems typical for a medium-sided state in these polls), then a fair amount of these polls should be 5% or further from the actual result, with smaller states even less precise.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #49 on: August 27, 2016, 09:13:05 am »

ignores 50 other polls that say otherwise




HEY WEIRD OUTLIER SAYS +14 IN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR TRUMP, LET'S HAVE A MISPLACED THREAD ABOUT IT.

don't be such an idiot dude.
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