Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States

[Seriously?]

9/8 numbers. Only NM seems off significantly as far as I can tell from a quick look.

State           EV   Clinton   Trump
Alabama   9   42%   51%
Alaska   3   —   —
Arizona   11   40%   46%
Arkansas   6   41%   50%
California   55   60%   32%
Colorado   9   40%   43%
Connecticut   7   46%   40%
Delaware   3   46%   24%
Florida   29   47%   47%
Georgia   16   38%   48%
Hawaii   4   —   —
Idaho   4   30%   56%
Illinois   20   52%   34%
Indiana   11   32%   56%
Iowa   6   41%   44%
Kansas   6   38%   52%
Kentucky   8   37%   53%
Louisiana   8   33%   60%
Maine   4   52%   33%
Maryland   10   54%   30%
Massachusetts   11   53%   30%
Michigan   16   43%   41%
Minnesota   10   42%   31%
Mississippi   6   35%   58%
Missouri   10   34%   53%
Montana   3   30%   60%
Nebraska   5   28%   56%
Nevada   6   43%   41%
New Hampshire   4   49%   36%
New Jersey   14   47%   35%
New Mexico   5   38%   48%
New York   29   52%   30%
North Carolina   15   46%   45%
North Dakota   3   —   —
Ohio   18   47%   46%
Oklahoma   7   33%   52%
Oregon   7   47%   35%
Pennsylvania   20   49%   44%
Rhode Island   4   —   —
South Carolina   9   45%   49%
South Dakota   3   —   —
Tennessee   11   28%   49%
Texas   38   31%   48%
The District of Columbia   3   —   —
Utah   6   29%   46%
Vermont   3   —   —
Virginia   13   50%   37%
Washington   12   45%   37%
West Virginia   5   39%   54%
Wisconsin   10   38%   40%
Wyoming   3   —   —

[Dr. Arch]

"Only NM,"

-looks at WI and CO-

lol

[Seriously?]

Colorado is a little bizarre too.  Virginia is extreme given how close the other swing states are.

I don't have sample sizes, but CO and VA have some heft to them, so on balance, there's some science there. NM is likely a junk sample.

[Seriously?]

"Only NM,"

-looks at WI and CO-

lol

From a MOE standpoint, WI and CO are possible if you are on the heavy Trump side of recent samples (assuming MOE ~ +/- 5%).

Wi has been consistent pro-Trump with Reuters for whatever reason.

[afleitch]

The turnout model  (Hispanics at 30%) crazify some of these state results.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Is it head-to-head numbers?

[Seriously?]

Is it head-to-head numbers?

Yes. 2-way, LV. no 4-way numbers.

[Mallow]

"Only NM,"

-looks at WI and CO-

lol

Yep, NM, WI, CO, and to a lesser degree, VA, all look way off. But in a poll this big, you're bound to get some oddities.

[OneJ]

Is anyone gonna mention Mississippi's result? Over 20 points along with Texas being Trump +17?

[NOVA Green]

It's actually a bit more interesting to look at these in terms of overall trends, rather than getting fixated on some of the individual state numbers, and some apparent outliers.

So, if we look at the swing states we see some patterns that appear to support what we have seen elsewhere:

Ohio- Numbers have fluctuated a bit, but it looks like Trump has consolidated much of the wavering Republican base over the past few weeks and Clinton is basically holding steady at around 46/47%.

Florida- Clinton's numbers have held relatively steady, with a slight drop to undecideds and Trump has consolidated much of the Republican base.

Virginia- Numbers have held remarkably steady for the past month with Trump stuck at about 37% and down ~10%. Trump can't break through in NOVA?

Pennsylvania- Clinton is basically holding at slightly under 50% and Trump has been stuck in the lower 40%. He can't break through in suburban Philly?

North Carolina- Clinton has lost a few points to undecideds, but Trump has been stuck at 44% for a month. Comparing with other polls it's really looking like he has virtually maxed out his support and Clinton is holding a slight structural advantage with the remainder of the electorate.

Michigan- There hasn't been much movement over the past month, although it appears that Trump has lost a few points with Clinton holding steady. Surprised at the large number of undecideds in their polls, but historically this is a state that tends to close strong for Dems in the GE.

Wisconsin- Looks a little weird in all of their polls over the past month, but not implausible considering other polls and some likely Bernie holdouts, and also a state that tends to close strong for the Dems in the GE.

Iowa--- Seems about right with a narrow Trump lead and huge number of undecided voters.

Georgia--- There has been a significant drop of Clinton supporters to undecided voters over the past month with Trump gaining a few points and getting closer to the magic 50% number.

Other Notes---

1.) It looks like Ipsos does have some issues polling Spanish language speaking voters judging from some dubious numbers in Texas and New Mexico, as well as some odd swings in Nevada and Colorado.

2.) Major shifts from Clinton to Trump in Kentucky, Missourri, and some Republican plains states (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Montana.)

3.) Odd numbers in a few Deep South states (Louisiana and Mississippi @ +20-29 Trump) compared to Arkansas (+6-+9 Trump) and Alabama (+13-+9 Trump), as well as a few other miscellaneous places (CT and IN).

[Ricky1121]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

[afleitch]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

Answer in bold.

[Dr. Arch]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

Answer in bold.

[Southern Delegate matthew27]

No, not even close.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

Answer in bold.

CO is nearly as safe as NH this year.

[Xing]

Did Ipsos actually find Trump ahead there? Yes. Can they be trusted? Absolutely not. (Trump up TEN in NM!?)

[Seriously?]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of Trump having a lead there or drawing things close in Colorado as nonsense. The Ipsos polls of the state actually have a statistically significant sample and a two-week frame of reference.

Given the state of the national race, it could be closer than some of the older data suggests.

I am not saying Trump is ahead in the state, but it could be closer than you think. There hasn't been a legit landline/cell poll of the state in a while.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Clinton wins OH and or VA, it doesn't matter. But Clinton should win CO.

[mencken]

On FiveThirtyEight, an Ipsos poll has Trump leading here. Is this legit or no?

I wouldn't dismiss the possibility of Trump having a lead there or drawing things close in Colorado as nonsense. The Ipsos polls of the state actually have a statistically significant sample and a two-week frame of reference.

Given the state of the national race, it could be closer than some of the older data suggests.

I am not saying Trump is ahead in the state, but it could be closer than you think. There hasn't been a legit landline/cell poll of the state in a while.

Quinnipiac and Marist had Clinton up at 8 and 12 respectively back in early August. Since then Trump has picked up ~4 points nationally, so a modest single digit lead is about what should be expected here.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Arkansas and Alabama have been oddly close... I can kind of get AR (home state, plus elasticity) but AL makes no sense. Then again this is Ipsos...

[NOVA Green]

Arkansas and Alabama have been oddly close... I can kind of get AR (home state, plus elasticity) but AL makes no sense. Then again this is Ipsos...

Well, unfortunately we haven't really seen any decent polls from 'Bama this GE election cycle, but Ipsos seems to be the best available, compared against the likes of Google Consumer Surveys, or the one Survey Monkey poll.

However, it should be noted that Bill Clinton only lost "Bama by 7 points in both '92 and '96 in a 3-Person race, and even Gore only lost by 14 points in 2000.

'Bama swung hard to the right in 2004 (37-62 George W.) and was basically static in '08 and '12, with slight improvements for the Dems, likely as a result of high Black turnout....

The key for a Dem to make Alabama a single digit state is to pull back Whites in Northern Alabama, which historically has been a region of the state where voters never really bought the Republican Southern strategy agenda.

Arkansas is an interesting contrast, and a state that until just recently would elect Democratic governors and US Senators.... Even John Kerry only lost Arkansas by 9 points in '04. .

There hasn't been a single poll showing Trump up by double-digits other than a couple of junk "Google Analytics Polls".

I could easily see this closing out as only a +6-7 Trump win come November, and if his national numbers start collapsing (Clinton +8) move into relatively close race....

[MT Treasurer]

New numbers:

Pennsylvania: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Ohio: 47% Clinton, 44% Trump
Florida: 50% Trump, 46% Clinton
Colorado: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
New Mexico: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
Nevada: 41% Trump, 38% Clinton
Michigan: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton
Wisconsin: 43% Clinton, 40% Trump
Maine: 41% Clinton, 40% Trump
North Carolina: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Iowa: 49% Trump, 41% Clinton

Apparently, Trump is leading in Vermont. lol

Trump: 243 EV
Clinton: 242 EV

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

New numbers:

Pennsylvania: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Ohio: 47% Clinton, 44% Trump
Florida: 50% Trump, 46% Clinton
Colorado: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
New Mexico: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
Nevada: 41% Trump, 38% Clinton
Michigan: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton
Wisconsin: 43% Clinton, 40% Trump
Maine: 41% Clinton, 40% Trump
North Carolina: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Iowa: 49% Trump, 41% Clinton

Apparently, Trump is leading in Vermont. lol

Trump: 243 EV
Clinton: 242 EV

Disgruntled Bernie supporters? Lol

[Ebsy]

How does Reuters consistently manage to produce ridiculous results across the board?

[Gass3268]

New numbers:

Pennsylvania: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Ohio: 47% Clinton, 44% Trump
Florida: 50% Trump, 46% Clinton
Colorado: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
New Mexico: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
Nevada: 41% Trump, 38% Clinton
Michigan: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton
Wisconsin: 43% Clinton, 40% Trump
Maine: 41% Clinton, 40% Trump
North Carolina: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Iowa: 49% Trump, 41% Clinton

Apparently, Trump is leading in Vermont. lol

Trump: 243 EV
Clinton: 242 EV

Did they not poll Latinos?