Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

At least this is better than Google. GeoIP, LOL.

[politicallefty]

If Hillary actually wins California by 39% and doesn't win the Presidency, I will be a full-fledged secessionist (and hopefully we could also take Washington and Oregon as well).

[Person Man]

If Hillary actually wins California by 39% and doesn't win the Presidency, I will be a full-fledged secessionist (and hopefully we could also take Washington and Oregon as well).

I think if CA leaves, NY-MA leaves, too. We would have our own little 1991.

[Ozymandias]

Apologies if someone has already posted this message about Ipsos Polls from electoral-vote.com:

electoral-vote.com/evp2016/Pres/Maps/Sep21.html#item-11

some of the more interesting quotes...

"We Are Removing the Ipsos Polls from the Database"

"In nine of the 44 states Ipsos has polled, the Ipsos and non-Ipsos results differ by 10 or more points. That is way outside the margin of error (usually about 4%). In 21 states, the difference between Ipsos and non-Ipsos was 5 points or more."

"Interestingly enough, Ipsos is not biased. Averaged across all states, Ipsos favors the Democrats by a very small margin: Only 0.70%. That is fine. Except that it gets this small margin by having large errors cancel out."

[Seriously?]

Latest update 9/16-9/25, 1 or 2 or 3-week polls, depending.

259-191 Clinton. Lots of close states though. OH and NC in the Clinton camp.



http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

[afleitch]

Right,

We have White turnout at 68%, Black turnout at 52%, Asian and other turnout at 40% and Hispanic turnout at 36%. So again historic highs for white voters and historic lows, bordering on mid term lows for everyone else...

[Ebsy]

Their turnout model really is awful.

[‼realJohnEwards‼]

Right,

We have White turnout at 68%, Black turnout at 52%, Asian and other turnout at 40% and Hispanic turnout at 36%. So again historic highs for white voters and historic lows, bordering on mid term lows for everyone else...

Yeah... whoever designed the Ipsos demos model needs to be banned from polling for life. Just absurd

[Wiz in Wis]

Ugh... this garbage get's added to 538, and then Nate chastises people for having less faith in his model. Good grief.

[elcorazon]

results look pretty reasonable actually

[Seriously?]

9/29 update. Some pre-debate and some post-debate numbers. Roughly 50/50.



Reuters Link: http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/

[Wiz in Wis]

9/29 update. Some pre-debate and some post-debate numbers. Roughly 50/50.

These really don't bounce around much do they. Again, MI/WI being tied is not credible, SC will not be 8 points left of Georgia, and clearly this is an outlier in terms of OH... otherwise nothing really obviously wrong.

[dspNY]

Tuning those numbers to likely turnout percentages, you get an easy Clinton win. Their African-American and Hispanic turnout numbers are very low and they still have Clinton winning

[afleitch]

Adjust racial turnouts to 2012 levels, then it's 2012 with Clinton picking up NC, SC (SC which we can perhaps ignore) but losing Iowa and with Colorado being a tie.

[TC 25]

Are these polls legit?  They seem to contradict the trends.

[Dr. Arch]

Link? Info? Either way, Trump isn't winning either MI or WI, period.

[Phony Moderate]

Link? Info? Either way, Trump isn't winning either MI or WI, period.

Although the latter has elected sone dubious characters over the years.

[TC 25]

On Twitter within the last hour or so.  These seem hard to believe given all the other polls and trends.

[Dr. Arch]

It's part of their 50-state "poll"/analysis.

Makes sense. Junk.

[Rand]

It's pretty sad when this is the most optimistic poll your small, tax dodging hands can tweet in an effort to maintain the diminished enthusiasm of the continually shrinking minority of American voters who support you. Look at the cute way they tilt Clinton's name. Isn't the Trump campaign just the most brilliant and innovative at the subtleties of politics?

[Seriously?]

Through 10/6. 1, 2 and 3 week surveys depending on state.

[dspNY]

Reuters/Ipsos State of the Nation poll: 10/20

Looking a lot less junky (except for Washington State). Color scheme in Atlas red/blue

Alabama: 52-38 Trump
Alaska: No data
Arizona: 45-43 Trump, too close to call
Arkansas: 53-34 Trump
California: 64-26 Clinton
Colorado: 45-41 Clinton
Connecticut: 53-35 Clinton
Delaware: 48-34 Clinton
DC: No data, but expected to go to Clinton
Florida: 48-44 Clinton
Georgia: 49-41 Trump
Hawaii: Clinton, margin uncertain
Idaho: 51-35 Trump
Illinois: 57-28 Clinton
Indiana: 49-38 Trump
Iowa: 46-43 Clinton
Kansas: 50-38 Trump
Kentucky: 52-41 Trump
Louisiana: 51-35 Trump
Maine: 48-39 Clinton
Maryland: 53-29 Clinton
Massachusetts: 57-25 Clinton
Michigan: 45-41 Clinton
Minnesota: 44-32 Clinton
Mississippi: 52-37 Trump
Missouri: 48-37 Trump
Montana: 51-32 Trump
Nebraska: 47-35 Trump
Nevada: 48-43 Clinton
New Hampshire: 45-39 Clinton
New Jersey: 53-32 Clinton
New Mexico: 51-35 Clinton
New York: 54-30 Clinton
North Carolina: 47-43 Clinton
North Dakota: Trump, margin uncertain
Ohio: 43-43 tie
Oklahoma: 51-36 Trump
Oregon: 46-37 Clinton
Pennsylvania: 49-39 Clinton
Rhode Island: Insufficient data, expected to go to Clinton
South Carolina: 51-44 Trump
South Dakota: 50-33 Trump
Tennessee: 44-35 Trump
Texas: 52-39 Trump
Utah: 41-29 Trump* No McMullin
Vermont: Clinton, margin uncertain
Virginia: 49-37 Clinton
Washington: 46-42 Clinton
West Virginia: 56-39 Trump
Wisconsin: 45-42 Clinton
Wyoming: Insufficient data, expected to go to Trump

[BoAtlantis]

Another FL poll with a 4.

[Dr. Arch]

FL Clinton+4 here too. What are the chances of so many polls of different qualities showing Clinton+4 in FL this many times? Has the race stabilized/locked in that much there?

[Person Man]

So, what's the count? 328-210?