Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States (user search)
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: (Most) States  (Read 14952 times)
‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« on: August 26, 2016, 08:46:07 PM »

Lol... I remember when Ipsos was basically Clinton's L.A. Times. Now they're just trash...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2016, 12:45:00 PM »

LOL @ Utah to the left of Arizona, NH to the right of NC, MI/WI to the right of NE-02, SC to the left of GA, and pretty much everything else. HP
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #2 on: September 10, 2016, 02:00:42 PM »


CO is nearly as safe as NH this year.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #3 on: September 10, 2016, 02:34:13 PM »

Arkansas and Alabama have been oddly close... I can kind of get AR (home state, plus elasticity) but AL makes no sense. Then again this is Ipsos...
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #4 on: September 16, 2016, 10:15:30 PM »
« Edited: September 16, 2016, 10:51:15 PM by John Ewards »

New numbers:

Pennsylvania: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump
Ohio: 47% Clinton, 44% Trump

Florida: 50% Trump, 46% Clinton
Colorado: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
New Mexico: 43% Trump, 40% Clinton
Nevada: 41% Trump, 38% Clinton

Michigan: 44% Trump, 44% Clinton
Wisconsin: 43% Clinton, 40% Trump
Maine: 41% Clinton, 40% Trump
North Carolina: 46% Clinton, 44% Trump

Iowa: 49% Trump, 41% Clinton

Apparently, Trump is leading in Vermont. lol

Trump: 243 EV
Clinton: 242 EV

Did they not poll Latinos?

This is pretty much exactly what I thought as well. It seems like these polls are actually very consistent, if you HEAVILY undersample the Latino vote. That would account for NM (the most Hispanic state) being where it is, as well as NV, CO, and even FL.
Yeah, they estimate Latino turnout at 30%, which is just absurd. Ipsos trying to unskew themselves, lol.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #5 on: September 17, 2016, 11:30:43 AM »

Wait, they're projecting that Hispanic turnout will go down!? Hah! They're in for a rude awakening.
You think, Hispanics [and Whites] lie? As far as I know, the answers to the questions ("Will you vote Nov 8?" and "How enthusiastic are you about the election?") are the most important to decide likelihood.

Listen, Trump has literally targeted Hispanics with his rhetoric. From my communication with Hispanic leaders all over my state and with friends and family in places like Florida and New York, the sentiment is not that of passing on voting, but on stopping Trump cold. If you think a community that's being threatened at a national level will not turn out more than in times that they weren't, then you don't understand or you just don't want to consider it, plain and simple.

More to consider, polls in places like FL aren't taking into account the large population influx of Puerto Rican Hispanics who vote overwhelmingly D. You can go to the FL poll thread that I elaborated more on this if you want more information.

Lastly, I remember reading on this forum even that Hispanic voter registration has skyrocketed in places like Colorado and Nevada.

The same applies to African-Americans, who have now been reminded of Trump's birtherism once more (those that forgot). Hillary is well-known and trusted among this community, and Obama is on the trail campaigning for her. I doubt voter turnout there will be suppressed much either.

If they project lower turnout in light of all this, they're not going to get a good screen and so their topline numbers and projections will suffer.
There are a lot of reasons why turnout among non-white might be lower than 2012. If almost all the polls show [right now] that, why would you not believe them?

They [all pollsters, not just Ipsos] might be wrong, of course, but it is more likely that they are right.
It's not polls which are showing lower turnout, it is Ipsos's weighting scheme.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2016, 07:59:48 AM »

At least this is better than Google. GeoIP, LOL.
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‼realJohnEwards‼
MatteKudasai
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -4.87

« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2016, 01:12:15 PM »

Right,

We have White turnout at 68%, Black turnout at 52%, Asian and other turnout at 40% and Hispanic turnout at 36%. So again historic highs for white voters and historic lows, bordering on mid term lows for everyone else...
Yeah... whoever designed the Ipsos demos model needs to be banned from polling for life. Just absurd
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