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  FL-Mason-Dixon: Murphy and Rubio lead big in primaries, Rubio +3 in general
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Author Topic: FL-Mason-Dixon: Murphy and Rubio lead big in primaries, Rubio +3 in general  (Read 1134 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 25, 2016, 11:04:43 am »
« edited: August 25, 2016, 11:23:42 am by heatcharger »

http://miami.cbslocal.com/2016/08/25/poll-rubio-murphy-hold-big-primary-leads/

Republican Primary:

Rubio - 61%
Beruff - 22%

Democratic Primary:

Murphy - 55%
Grayson - 22%

General:

Rubio - 46%
Murphy - 43%
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xingkerui
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2016, 11:37:10 am »

No presidential poll? Well, this confirms what we've generally seen, Rubio is somewhat ahead, but his lead isn't safe.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2016, 12:01:23 am »

Remember when people actually thought Grayson had a chance? lol
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2016, 09:02:31 am »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2016, 01:32:48 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2016, 01:38:48 pm »

New Poll: Florida Senator by Mason-Dixon on 2016-08-24

Summary: D: 43%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 11%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2016, 05:19:40 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

The presidential election being "Safe D" despite polls showing Hillary only ahead within the margin of error and there being more than two months to go?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2016, 05:37:51 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

The presidential election being "Safe D" despite polls showing Hillary only ahead within the margin of error and there being more than two months to go?

I've never thought it was safe D, but it isn't within the MoE. Both RCP and Pollster have her up 6, and she's doing even better in her "firewall" states.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2016, 07:49:12 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
Wulfric
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« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2016, 07:51:52 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.

I can't speak for others, but the reason why I still have FL as a Toss-Up is the primary hasn't happened yet. Remember how Begich looked okay for much of 2014, then after the primary he quickly lost his lead and never recovered?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2016, 07:57:01 pm »


There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.

I can't speak for others, but the reason why I still have FL as a Toss-Up is the primary hasn't happened yet. Remember how Begich looked okay for much of 2014, then after the primary he quickly lost his lead and never recovered?

This. Remember when Teflon Toomey was up by a good margin against McGinty, who many people on here don't like (including Wulfric)?

Yeah, technically as of right now Rubio is a clear favorite, but it's pretty fair to assume this race will tighten up in the next month.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #11 on: August 28, 2016, 07:57:39 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.

I can't speak for others, but the reason why I still have FL as a Toss-Up is the primary hasn't happened yet. Remember how Begich looked okay for much of 2014, then after the primary he quickly lost his lead and never recovered?

I don't actually, because there were barely any polls of Alaska and most were not trusted because its super difficult to poll the state. I knew it was going to be a competitive race from the start, not that primaries aren't important in some races. I still rate it as toss-up too, but I'm speaking for the double standards of (many posters on) the forum not myself. Like most anybody who already has an existing opinion, if polls show what we like, then we trust them and move on, if they don't, we're skeptical and don't know if we can trust them. Its just standard stuff at this point, not trying to be bitchy just wanted to point it out.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2016, 08:14:27 pm »

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #13 on: August 28, 2016, 08:48:04 pm »

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.
The biggest difference is of course, Florida is a competitive state. New Hampshire is not.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #14 on: August 28, 2016, 08:49:29 pm »

By this forum's standards of other races, this one should be Lean R.

What are you referring to here?

There's been like 6 polls all in a row showing Rubio leading by 3-8. We easily call New Hampshire 'Lean D' when there's a few polls showing Hassan up 4 or 5. People here just HATE Rubio, and want him to lose badly that they're having a hard time accepting he has somewhat of an advantage right now.

The vast majority of predictions have both FL and NH as toss ups. In fact, there are more lean R ratings for FL than lean D ratings for NH.

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/SENATE/2016/pred.php

Plus, as the others have said, it's important to see how things shake out after the primary before drawing broad conclusions.
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Congressman Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #15 on: August 28, 2016, 10:01:06 pm »

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.
The biggest difference is of course, Florida is a competitive state. New Hampshire is not.

^This. Rating NH lean or tilt D and pretending that the race will be competitive is stupid, just like it was in 2012 and 2014. I generally agree with ElectionsGuy, though.

The distinction depends on your definition of competitive. If Hassan wins by 3 to 6 percent, yeah I'd call it a competitive race. I'd call ANY race with that sort of margin competitive.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 12:25:34 am »

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.
The biggest difference is of course, Florida is a competitive state. New Hampshire is not.

Well, neither are Nevada or Wisconsin. Wink
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 09:18:57 am »

I'd say that another difference between Florida and New Hampshire is that Rubio probably still has higher name recognition than Murphy, whereas Hassan is, of course, very well known in New Hampshire. People are assuming that Murphy will gain once he gets his name recognition up. That's not guaranteed to happen, and I do think Rubio is favored for now, but I think there's just less certainty in this race, at the moment.
The biggest difference is of course, Florida is a competitive state. New Hampshire is not.

Well, neither are Nevada or Wisconsin. Wink
Nevada is competitive. Wisconsin, on paper, should be competitive but all signs point to it not being. New Hampshire is not even remotely close to being competitive.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2016, 09:24:11 am »

Heisenberg, do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the MD Senate race than the one in NH?

#edgy
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2016, 02:43:57 pm »

Nevada is competitive. Wisconsin, on paper, should be competitive but all signs point to it not being. New Hampshire is not even remotely close to being competitive.

Heisenberg, do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the MD Senate race than the one in NH?
On a very serious note, Maryland.
Ayotte is not too popular, while Hassan is and already has statewide recognition. Hassan has a good lead in the polls, and Democrats have been bolstering her with a lot of money.
On the other hand, neither candidate in Maryland has been tested statewide. There has been basically no polling so I really don't have any clue where the race stands right now. And open Senate races in Maryland have been VERY close. Look at 2006, Steele was not the best candidate, and it was a beyond horrible year for Republicans, yet Steele somehow managed to lose by only 10 points. Open seats should NEVER be taken for granted (see North Dakota 2012).
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2016, 02:50:06 pm »

Nevada is competitive. Wisconsin, on paper, should be competitive but all signs point to it not being. New Hampshire is not even remotely close to being competitive.

Heisenberg, do you think Republicans have a better chance of winning the MD Senate race than the one in NH?
On a very serious note, Maryland.
Ayotte is not too popular, while Hassan is and already has statewide recognition. Hassan has a good lead in the polls, and Democrats have been bolstering her with a lot of money.
On the other hand, neither candidate in Maryland has been tested statewide. There has been basically no polling so I really don't have any clue where the race stands right now. And open Senate races in Maryland have been VERY close. Look at 2006, Steele was not the best candidate, and it was a beyond horrible year for Republicans, yet Steele somehow managed to lose by only 10 points. Open seats should NEVER be taken for granted (see North Dakota 2012).

I have seen zero on the ground evidence to suggest any chance of an upset. Compare that to 2014 when I saw more Hogan than Brown stuffn here in MoCo.
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