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Author Topic: FL-Mason Dixon: Clinton +2  (Read 1006 times)
dspNY
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« on: August 26, 2016, 07:49:31 am »

Clinton 44
Trump 42
Johnson 6
Stein 2

No 2-way numbers

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000156-c498-d23f-a5d6-ee9b02c20002

Demographics look spot-on for FL. Poll taken August 22-24, 2016
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Redban
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« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2016, 07:55:59 am »

Clinton is taking 10% Republicans against Trump's 78%. He needs to win back his own party to get the lead.

Also, it's looking likely that the Monmouth D+9 poll is an outlier. Everyone else is showing a 2% - 5% lead.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2016, 07:57:19 am »

MD is still on probation.
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dspNY
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« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2016, 08:02:54 am »

Since the conventions there have been 12 Florida polls. Clinton leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, and there was one tie. Florida tilts D right now
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2016, 08:18:16 am »

This seems right
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2016, 08:19:04 am »

Since the conventions there have been 12 Florida polls. Clinton leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, and there was one tie. Florida tilts D right now

Should be remembered that Romney lead in almost every FL poll in October and still lost.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2016, 08:32:28 am »

Since the conventions there have been 12 Florida polls. Clinton leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, and there was one tie. Florida tilts D right now

Should be remembered that Romney lead in almost every FL poll in October and still lost.
And wasn't it Mason Dixon itself which a couple of days before the election said "ok guys,that's it,Romney will win Florida"?
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 08:33:07 am »

This seems right
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2016, 08:37:25 am »

Since the conventions there have been 12 Florida polls. Clinton leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, and there was one tie. Florida tilts D right now

Should be remembered that Romney lead in almost every FL poll in October and still lost.
And wasn't it Mason Dixon itself which a couple of days before the election said "ok guys,that's it,Romney will win Florida"?

The publically declared that they would no longer poll Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia because Romney already had those states locked down.
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Desroko
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« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2016, 08:41:14 am »

Since the conventions there have been 12 Florida polls. Clinton leads in 9, Trump leads in 2, and there was one tie. Florida tilts D right now

Should be remembered that Romney lead in almost every FL poll in October and still lost.
And wasn't it Mason Dixon itself which a couple of days before the election said "ok guys,that's it,Romney will win Florida"?

The publically declared that they would no longer poll Florida, North Carolina, or Virginia because Romney already had those states locked down.

http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolitics/2012/11/13/165062730/a-week-later-pollster-says-i-was-drinking-that-republican-kool-aid
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2016, 08:43:17 am »

lol Mason-Dixon
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Redban
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« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2016, 10:04:57 am »

They made a mistake in 2012 (as many other pollsters did), which they have admitted. Why not assume that they have learned their lesson? If you a fail a test once, are you destined to fail that test the second time?
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NV less likely to flip than FL
xingkerui
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« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2016, 10:08:09 am »

Polls in Florida have been all over the place, recently. This seems plausible in a 2012-style victory for Hillary, though if she's winning by more like 6-7%, I think she'll win FL by a bit more.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2016, 10:43:27 am »

Clinton is taking 10% Republicans against Trump's 78%. He needs to win back his own party to get the lead.

Also, it's looking likely that the Monmouth D+9 poll is an outlier. Everyone else is showing a 2% - 5% lead.

For Donald Trump to get elected, several things must go right for him.

1. He must get the majority of votes among new voters. Not happening.

2. He must make net gains among existing voters. Not happening; in fact I am tempted to believe that there will be far more Romney-to-Clinton voters than Obama-to-Trump voters.

3. People not voting this time must have in the majority voted for the nominee on the other side.  Trump might be on that, if only because Obama had an edge among 'all voters' in 2012. But that is slight.

4. Third-Party and independent voters must be going to Trump in huge numbers. Third Party nominees did not figure much in 2012. Contrast 2000, when a majority of Perot voters of 1996 went to George W. Bush.

5. Third Party nominees must be getting their votes largely from the opposite side of the spectrum from Trump. Not happening.

6. A scandal must break, the economy needs to go into a recession lasting at least six months, or some diplomatic calamity must have happened long enough before the election to not give the Incumbent and his Party the "Rally around the Flag" effect. President Obama isn't scandal prone, and time has run out for the other possibilities. It took several months after the Stock Market Crash of 1929 for American economy was in trouble.

Hillary Clinton will win Florida, and she will win the Presidency. 
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olowakandi
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« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2016, 10:50:49 am »

Florida is a good state for Clinton
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2016, 05:16:03 pm »

So at this point we have had three or four "junk polls" over the past few weeks, combined with an A+ Monmouth and A- Ipsos, and now we have a B+ pollster showing a narrow Hillary lead.

Again to repeat, Florida is an extremely difficult state to poll for many reasons, but however one chooses to slice and dice and unskew, it definitely looks like a narrow +2 Clinton lead at a minimum as of today.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #16 on: August 26, 2016, 05:49:01 pm »

I honestly think it's about a Clinton +4 state right now.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #17 on: August 26, 2016, 06:19:59 pm »

Right know we could stick to 538's model that currently is showing Clinton +4 in Florida.

But if 538 suddenly starts to show Trump leading, we can always say, it's junk! Grin



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