Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 16, 2019, 04:58:36 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Be sure to enable your "Ultimate Profile" for even more goodies on your profile page!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Election Archive
| |-+  Election Archive
| | |-+  All Archived Boards
| | | |-+  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
| | | | |-+  FL-icitizen: Clinton +5
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: FL-icitizen: Clinton +5  (Read 1199 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 26, 2016, 10:25:02 am »

Quote
Executive Summary

U.S. President: Clinton up five.

Hillary Clinton (42%)
Donald Trump (37%)
Gary Johnson (8%)
Jill Stein (2%)

someone else (4%)
undecided (8%).

U.S. Senate:
Rubio up one on Murphy. Marco Rubio (43%), Patrick Murphy (42%), undecided (16%).
Rubio up five on Grayson. Marco Rubio (44%), Alan Grayson (39%), undecided (16%).
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 26, 2016, 10:26:32 am »

I'm not familiar with them, so I assume this is probably junk. The numbers for Prez and senate look plausible, though.
Logged
Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,673
Sweden


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2016, 10:27:26 am »

It did somehow raised Trump chances in 538's polls-only model [insignificantly] from 16.9% to 17.1%. Huh May be because of their quick simulation algorithm...
Logged

“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 26, 2016, 10:31:55 am »

Demographics make sense (64% white, 18% Hispanic, 13% African-American)

Party ID is also in the ballpark, even slightly more republican/independent than the state (31D/31R/37I) when the traditional party ID is around D+2 or D+3 with far fewer independents.

It's definitely clear that Clinton has a persistent edge in FL
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,198
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 26, 2016, 10:33:04 am »

The kind of number that should continue to eat away at the Trump campaign is his "would you even consider this candidate?" numbers. 52% in this poll say they will simply not even think about it. Hard to win elections that way.
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 26, 2016, 10:35:32 am »

It did somehow raised Trump chances in 538's polls-only model [insignificantly] from 16.9% to 17.1%. Huh May be because of their quick simulation algorithm...

Weirdly, it only appears on the updates tab, not the Florida tab. I wonder if that's an error in the model or an error in the online table.
Logged
Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 17,359
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 26, 2016, 10:36:59 am »

The presidential numbers look accurate, but the Senate numbers are junk. Rubio wins Hispanics by 14 points and gets 17% of the Black vote but only leads Murphy by 1?
Logged

populist neoliberal elitist corporatist polarized record levels polarization elastic inelastic elasticity inelasticity college-educated fiscally conservative socially liberal moderate reasonable wwc



Countdown timer to Joni Ernst's victory speech
Classic Conservative
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,668
View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 26, 2016, 10:38:41 am »

I've never heard of this company
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 26, 2016, 10:39:11 am »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.
Logged
dspNY
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,593
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 26, 2016, 10:42:40 am »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.

Demographics, party ID, regional breakdown and methodology look sound though
Logged
Ebsy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 7,708
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 26, 2016, 10:57:48 am »

I've never heard of this company
They've done polls of Tennessee, Oregon and nationally so far. Nothing has looked ridiculously out of place and the methodology is sound. We'll see how they perform on election day.
Logged
Jimmie
jamespol
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,322


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 26, 2016, 11:34:40 am »

At least for the Presidential poll results.. everything looks in line. Like IndyRep, I am skeptical of the Senate numbers.
Logged

Cruzcrew
Paleocon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 574
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 26, 2016, 11:40:36 am »

The presidential results are probably in the +3 to +6 for Clinton range, but I'm also skeptical of the senate numbers.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,156
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.63, S: -6.13

View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 26, 2016, 11:41:29 am »

The margins for both races are plausible, though the cross-tabs are screwy. As I've said in other threads, it seems like there's a lack of consensus in Florida polling right now.
Logged

psychprofessor
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,078


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 26, 2016, 01:37:26 pm »

The margins for both races are plausible, though the cross-tabs are screwy. As I've said in other threads, it seems like there's a lack of consensus in Florida polling right now.

The consensus is that Clinton is leading - the question is, is it by low single digits or higher?
Logged
Wiz in Wis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,508


View Profile WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 26, 2016, 01:47:02 pm »

Throw it in the average... lather rinse repeat.

Demographics, party ID, regional breakdown and methodology look sound though

Yep, no reason to ignore it. It looks reasonable enough.
Logged
Flake
Flo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,710
United States


View Profile Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 28, 2016, 10:57:38 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Other Source on 2016-08-24

Summary: D: 42%, R: 37%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged

Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines