2012 National and State PVI Bellwether Counties for All 50 States

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Below you will find maps showing the state PVI and national PVI for each county.  Eventually, I will add town maps for New England and wherever else is available.  The color scheme is modified Atlas Swing, with colors darkening in 2.5 percentage increments, the darkest colors being D or R+30 or greater.  Bellwethers, which I've defined as counties with state PVIs from D+1 to R+1 are in light grey or greenish grey, respectively.

The 50 state county maps are listed in the table below (working links to come as I add maps and anaylsis):

Alabama	Alaska	Arizona	Arkansas	California	Colorado	Connecticut
Delaware	Florida	Georgia	Hawaii	Idaho	Illinois	Indiana
Iowa	Kansas	Kentucky	Louisiana	Maine	Maryland	Massachusetts
Michigan	Minnesota	Mississippi	Missouri	Montana	Nebraska	Nevada
New Hampshire	New Jersey	New Mexico	New York	North Carolina	North Dakota	Ohio
Oklahoma	Oregon	Pennsylvania	Rhode Island	South Carolina	South Dakota	Tennessee
Texas	Utah	Vermont	Virginia	Washington	West Virginia	Wisconsin
Wyoming

I have also made town PVI maps for the following states:

Connecticut	Maine	Massachusetts	Michigan	Minnesota	New Hampshire	New Jersey
Pennsylvania	Rhode Island	Vermont	Wisconsin

There is a separate ME-02 Town PVI Map here.

Other town maps may be forthcoming, though unofficial results in those states are usually reported first by county in those states, anyway.

Nationwide maps of state and national PVIs are available here.  Interactive maps are also available on Carto.com (Nationwide PVI, State PVI).

The 2010 version of this project with maps for the states that held Senate races is available here.  Note that the color gradient is slightly different on those maps.

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Alabama
State PVI:


Alabama has one AL PVI bellwether county that has recently voted within 1 point of the state average two-party Democratic percentage for the last two elections  - Colbert County in the northwest corner.  It is home to Muscle Shoals, on the bank of the Tennessee River's Wilson Lake.

National PVI:


Jefferson County (Birmingham) has voted in line with the national average over the past two elections. The vote in the county is very polarized, though, so using it as an early bellwether may not work, depending on which part of the county reports first.  Marengo County (Demopolis) is also a national PVI bellwether.

Note that Alabama's R+14 status has caused many relatively red counties in the state PVI map to turn blue.  Those counties may be more Democratic than the state, but they're not that Democratic.  You can clearly see Alabama's black belt - the string of (Atlas) red counties in the middle of the state.

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Alaska
State PVI:

Alaska has no County Equivalent state bellwethers.  R+1.2 Ketchikan Gateway Borough comes close.  This is probably all academic, though - Alaska doesn't report election results by County Equivalents, anyway.  Alaska's largest city, Anchorage, is slightly more Democratic than the rest of the state (D+2.6).

Note that the Wade Hampton Census area was recently renamed the Kusilvak Census Area.

National PVI:


The Northwest Arctic (Kotzebue) and Dillingham Census Areas are national PVI bellwethers - at least for now.  Bush Alaska has been trending away from Republicans recently, so their bellwether status might not hold for the 2016 election.  Sitka is also a national PVI bellwether.

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Arizona
State PVI:

Arizona's largest county, Maricopa (Phoenix), is a state PVI bellwether, voting just 0.94 points more Republican than the state at large over the past two Presidential elections.  Rural Navajo County, which stretches from part of the Navajo Indian reservation in the north to small towns like Winslow, Holbrook and Show Low in the center and to part of the Fort Apache Indian Reservation in the south, is an even better state PVI bellwether (R+0.49).  Both counties are fairly diverse, though, so early returns might not be predictive.

National PVI:


Pima County (Tucson) is a national bellwether in R+7 Arizona.  Again, the county is fairly diverse, though, so early returns might not be predictive.

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Arkansas
State PVI:

Arkansas has 6 AR PVI bellwether counties.  All are pretty rural.  Perhaps the most famous is Hempstead, which includes Bill Clinton's birthplace of Hope.  Columbia (Magnolia), Arkansas (Stuttgart), Clay, Randolph and Carroll (Eureka Springs) Counties also fit the bill.

National PVI:


The national PVI Arkansas map is much bluer, due to Arkansas's R+14 status.  But there are still some red counties, largely along the Mississippi and surrounding its larger cities, Pulaski (Little Rock) and Jefferson (Pine Bluff). 

Arkansas has one national PVI bellwether county, rural Woodruff County.

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California
State PVI:


If you want to predict how California will vote in a federal election, look to tiny Alpine and San Benito Counties.  Those minnows tend to predict the margin in this very large state.

National PVI:


San Bernadino County is a national PVI Bellwether - but is probably too large, diverse and late reporting to help prognosticators.

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Colorado
State PVI:


As Jefferson County in suburban Denver goes, so goes Colorado.  Or you can try to project the state winner and margin by using tiny Ouray or larger Larimer Counties (Loveland, Fort Collins).  Broomfield, near Denver, also tends to vote within 1 point of the two-party margin.

National PVI:


Because Colorado is only a D+1 state (technically D+0.82), the national PVI map looks a lot like the CO PVI map, with the Democratic-leaning bellwethers being slightly less predictive.  Ouray and Jefferson Counties are also national PVI bellwethers.  They are joined by Las Animas County (Trinidad) in the southeast corner of the state.

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Connecticut
State PVI:


Counties don't matter much in Connecticut.  Even election results tend to be reported by towns.  But if you're aggregating town data, Middlesex (Middletown) and New London (New London, Groton) Counties tend to be most predictive of the state margin.

National PVI:


D+7 Connecticut has no national PVI bellwether counties.  Somewhat surprisingly, Litchfield County has an R+2.49 national PVI.  All the rest of Connecticut's counties are more reliably Democratic than the national average.

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Delaware
State PVI:


Delaware only has three counties.  None are DE PVI bellwethers.  But you can see from the map that the state gets more Republican as you move south.

National PVI:


Kent County, home to the state capital and Air Force Base in Dover, is a good national PVI bellwether, with a PVI of D+0.9, in this D+8 state.

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Florida
State PVI:


Florida has three state PVI bellwether counties - rural Jefferson County in the panhandle, Volusia County (Daytona Beach) and Monroe County in the Florida Keys. 

National PVI:


Florida's R+2 status flips two light red counties into national PVI territory - Hillsborough and Pinellas Counties a.k.a Tampa-Saint Petersburg.  Otherwise, the nationwide PVI map looks a lot like the FL PVI map.

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Georgia
State PVI:


Georgia's state PVI bellwethers are diverse, ranging from Atlanta-exurban Henry County (McDonough) to coastal McIntosh County to the more rural Meriwether and Screven Counties.  It's not clear whether early results will be predictive, as racially polarized voting patterns tend to persist in southern states like Georgia.  It's also not clear whether Henry County will maintain bellwether status as African-American voters move in from neighboring Clayton and DeKalb Counties.

National PVI:


R+6 Georgia's national PVI bellwether counties are fairly small and clustered in the central part of the state - Sumter (Americus), Dooly, Peach (Fort Valley), Baldwin (Milledgeville) and Washington (Sandersville) Counties fit the description.

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Hawaii
State PVI:

Hawaii only has 5 counties.  None are state PVI bellwethers.  But 4 of the 5 counties generally cast their votes withing 5 points on either side of the 2008-2012 two-party Democratic presidential percentage state mean.  Only the leper colony of Kalawao County is significantly more Democratic than the state average.

Hawaii is one state where the more urban areas (Honolulu County) are relatively more Republican than the more rural Neighbor Islands.

National PVI:


All of Hawaii's counties are significantly more Democratic than average in this D+20 state.  Given Obama's home state advantage in 2008 and 2012, it might trend a little bit more Republican this election, though.  Hawaii was a D+8 state after the 2004 election.

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Idaho
State PVI:

 
Idaho has two state PVI bellwether counties - Kootenai (Coeur d'Alene) in the northern panhandle and Power, a rural county near Pocatello.  It also is a lot more heterogeneous than Hawaii, with Blaine County, home of the ski communities in and around Sun Valley, voting extremely more Democratic than the rest of the state, and Mormon-heavy Madison (Rexburg - home of BYU Utah) and Franklin Counties voting more heavily Republican.

National PVI:


Surprisingly for a deep-(Atlas) blue state, Latah County is a national PVI bellwether, with a PVI of D+0.06. Latah County is home to the University of Idaho in Moscow.  Blaine County is the only other county with a D+ PVI in R+18 Idaho

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Illinois
State PVI:


Illinois has no state PVI bellwether counties.  But because of the size and pro-Democratic tilt of Cook County, it has only two counties more Democratic than the state average - Cook and Rock Island.

National PVI:


Illinois' D+8 status causes many Illinois PVI Atlas blue counties to turn red on the Nationwide PVI map, and creates a bunch of nationwide PVI bellwethers - from once reliably-Republican Chicago collar counties DuPage and Kane, to St. Louis-suburban Madison to the more rural Northern Illinois counties of Jo Daviess (Galena), Henry (Kewanee), Warren (Monmouth) and LaSalle (Ottawa/Lasalle/Streator/Mendota).  

These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states.  Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012.  Warren and Henry Counties appear to be the least swingy of those counties from 2008 to 2012.

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Indiana
State PVI:


Unlike neighboring Illinois, Indiana has a number of state PVI bellwether counties, ranging from rural Starke County in the north to rural Scott and Crawford Counties in the South, to the more urban county of Vanderburgh (Evansville).  Of the four counties, Vanderburgh was the least swingy from 2008 to 2012.

National PVI:


Two Indiana counties qualified for national PVI bellwether status for the past two cycles, Chicago-exurban Porter (Valparaiso), and Lafayette's Tippecanoe.  Both counties are home to universities - Valparaiso in Porter and Purdue in Tippecanoe.  Tippecanoe had a much larger swing from 2008 to 2012 than Porter, which was almost dead even with the nationwide average in both cycles. 

Everyone's favorite Indiana bellwether county, Vigo (Terre Haute), has a nationwide PVI of D+1.4, and had a huge swing from 2008 to 2012.  Vigo County has a track record of predicting the winner, but Porter County seems to have a better track record of predicting the nationwide margin, at least recently.

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Iowa
State PVI:


Iowa has 9 state PVI Counties - Bremer, Cedar, Boone, Webster, Jasper, Mitchell, Jones, Allamakee and Marshall.  Most of those counties are very rural; only Marshall (Marshalltown), Jasper (Newton), Webster (Fort Dodge) and, arguably, Boone (Boone) have any towns of note.  Marshalltown is known for its relatively large Hispanic population.  Newton is the former home of Maytag. Of these 9 counties, Webster, Jones and Cedar were the least swingy - but Trump's anti-free trade rhetoric may play well in places like Jasper County this cycle.

National PVI:


Iowa's PVI is only D+1, which makes the state PVI map look a lot like the national PVI map.  As a result, the 5 slightly Republican-leaning statewide bellwether counties of Bremer, Cedar, Boone, Webster, Jasper also make the national PVI bellwether cut.  They are joined by rural Winnebago and Union (Creston) Counties

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Kansas
State PVI:


Deep (non-Atlas) red Kansas has two state PVI bellwethers - Labette (Parsons) and Harvey (Newton) Counties. 

National PVI:


The national PVI map of R+12 Kansas turns to deep shades of Atlas blue, except in Wyandotte (Kansas City) and Douglas (Lawrence) Counties.  As a result, there are no Kansas nationwide PVI bellwether counties.

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Kentucky
State PVI:


Kentucky has 11 state PVI bellwether counties - from Floyd County in the Appalachian east to Bourbon (Paris), Nicholas, Montgomery, Powell and Woodford (Versailles) Counties in the Bluegrass to relatively rural Louisville-area Henry and Trimble Counties, to Fort Knox and Elizabethtown's Hardin County, Bowling Green's Warren County and relatively rural Henderson-area Union County in the west.  All were fairly swingy, though, especially Floyd County, which went from giving Obama 49% of the two-party vote in 2008 to just 33% in 2012.

National PVI:


Like Kansas, Kentucky has no national PVI bellwether counties.  And, like Kansas, R+13 Kentucky only has two counties with a D+ nationwide PVI - Jefferson (Louisville) and Elliott.

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Louisiana
State PVI:


Louisiana has one state PVI bellwether parish - Concordia Parish, in Eastern Louisiana along the Mississippi River.  But because of racially polarized voting, early results may or may not reflect the final result.

National PVI:


Two Louisiana parishes qualify as nationwide PVI bellwethers - Caddo (Shreveport) and East Baton Rouge (Baton Rouge).  Both parishes trended Democratic compared to the national average from 2008 to 2012, and due to racially polarized voting, may not be good early predictors.

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Maine
State PVI:


Hancock County, home to Bar Harbor and Acadia National Park, Sagahadoc County (Bath) and rural Oxford County are Maine's state PVI bellwether counties.  Of the three, Hancock trended least, but had the highest PVI - but Oxford's trend was minor and even Sagahadoc's trend was only moderate compared to the state.

National PVI:


Maine's D+5 tilt moves two statewide Republican-leaning counties into national PVI bellwether range - neighboring Penobscot (Bangor) and Somerset Counties.  Penobscott is slightly closer to the nationwide mean at R+0.77.

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Maryland
State PVI:


Maryland has no state PVI bellwether counties.  As you can see from the map, it is very polarized.

National PVI:


Maryland has no national PVI bellwether counties, either.

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Massachusetts
State PVI:


Massachusetts has one state bellwether county, Hampden (Springfield).  This may be academic because, IIRC, Massachusetts results are often reported by town, and voting in Hampden County is polarized between the county's cities and suburbs.

National PVI:


Despite Massachusetts' D+10 tilt, its (relatively) most Republican county, Boston-suburban Plymouth, is a nationwide PVI bellwether.  It's still slighty (D+0.17) more Democratic than the national average, making Massachusetts a clean D+ PVI county sweep.

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Michigan
State PVI:


Michigan's state PVI bellwethers run the gamut from Detroit-suburban Oakland to the Tri-Cities' Saginaw to rural Isabella (Mount Pleasant) and Goegebic County in the extreme western part of the Upper Peninsula.  Isabella County is home to Central Michigan University and the Isabella Indian Reservation.  Of the four counties, Oakland trended the least from 2008 to 2012 but also had the largest relative PVI.

National PVI:


D+4 Michigan has 6 national PVI bellwether counties, ranging from Detroit-suburban Macomb County, to Eaton County, which contains some Lansing suburbs, to the more rural Shiawassee County (Owosso), in between Lansing and Flint.  Two south Michigan counties, Calhoun (Battle Creek) and Van Buren also fit the bill, along with Menominee County in the Upper Peninsula.  Of the 6 counties, Macomb and Shiawassee trended least. 

It's quite possible that Oakland County will be the best state bellwether while neighboring Macomb County will be the best national bellwether in Michigan for the 2016 election.

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Minnesota
State PVI:


Minnesota has 5 state PVI bellwether counties.  In the north, neighboring Beltrami (Bemidji) and Koochiching (International Falls) Counties are only slightly Democratic-leaning.  Nicollet (North Mankato) and Rice (Faribault) in the south are similarly situated.  Rural Fillmore County in Minnesota's southeast corner is slightly more Republican than average.  Of the 5, Nicollet trended the least relative to the state from 2008 to 2012.



D+2 Minnesota has 4 national PVI bellwethers.  They range from Dakota County (Eagan/Apple Valley/Burnsville) in the Minneapolis-St. Paul suburbs to rural Houston, Chippewa and Traverse Counties.   Of the four, Dakota and Chippewa trended the least relative to the U.S. over the past two cycles.

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Mississippi
State PVI:

Polarized Mississippi has 5 state bellwether counties.  The largest two are Forrest (Hattiesburg), home to the University of Southern Mississippi, and Lafayette (Oxford), which is home to the University of Mississippi.  The other three are fairly rural - Attala (Kosciusko), Scott and Amite Counties.  Of the 5, Attala and Forrest trended the least.

National PVI:


Panola and Pike (McComb) Counties are Mississippi's national PVI bellwethers.  Neither are particularly good ones, as they were both more than 2 points more Democratic than the national average in 2012.  Their relative Republicaness in 2008 is what made them bellwethers after averaging.