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Author Topic: Ohio - Emerson Polling: TIE  (Read 2751 times)
Kamala/Beto 2020
dfwlibertylover
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« on: August 29, 2016, 02:11:20 am »

https://twitter.com/EmersonPolling/status/770147754639175680

Trump - 43
Clinton - 43
Johnson - 10
Stein - 2
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Seriously?
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 02:25:27 am »

Encouraging news.

Emerson College wasn't as terrible as I remembered in the primaries. Bloomberg has them just behind *gasp* Gravis at predicting the winner 94% of the time 15 of 16. (Gravis hit 18 of 19).

Emerson's margin miss was 7.2, which was right on par with Monmouth (7.3), but better than Marist (7.5)/Q (8.2).

With that said, 538 has them with a R+1.3 house effect and rates them a B- (for 2012).

Bloomberg Sourcing: http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-06-29/ranking-the-2016-presidential-primary-polls-and-predictions?cmpid=yhoo.hosted
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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 02:35:41 am »

Good news for Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 04:32:55 am »

Excuse me but since when Emerson polls became the gospel of truth?
These guys were among the worst during the primaries.
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
olowakandi
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 06:21:12 am »

Clinton doesn't have to win OH, but as OH goes so does the election. And Johnson won get 10, him and Stein will get 3-4%.
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Higgs
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 06:30:24 am »

Clinton doesn't have to win OH, but as OH goes so does the election. And Johnson won get 10, him and Stein will get 3-4%.

You realize you just contradicted yourself?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2016, 06:32:36 am »

Its a swing state, but CO and Pa are the ultimate bellwether.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2016, 06:38:21 am »

Its a swing state, but CO and Pa are the ultimate bellwether.
Colorado? bahahaha
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Joni Ernst 20∞
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2016, 08:55:53 am »

New Poll: Ohio President by Emerson College on 2016-08-27

Summary: D: 43%, R: 43%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2016, 09:49:14 am »

If you love decimals or are Trump hack Grin
Trump +0.9

Trump 43,4%
Clinton 42,5%

Johnson 9,8%
Stein 2,1%
Undeciders 2,2%
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 10:34:04 am »

Emerson is a very bad pollster.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2016, 10:43:06 am »

Emerson is a very bad pollster.
Very very very bad pollster, I'd say!
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
dspNY
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 11:07:07 am »

Portman 40, Strickland 25 is straight junk though. Portman is leading but there aren't 35% undecided
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Vosem
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2016, 11:19:22 am »

Clinton's lead here is probably in the low-to-mid single digits. You'd expect a poll showing a tie, or even a small Trump lead, every once in a while.
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Xing
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2016, 11:25:15 am »

These polls are junk. Look no further than the senate results. If more polls showed this much tighten and such an enormous swing toward Portman and Toomey, maybe they'd be believable, but this is Emerson we're talking about.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2016, 11:33:42 am »

These polls are junk. Look no further than the senate results. If more polls showed this much tighten and such an enormous swing toward Portman and Toomey, maybe they'd be believable, but this is Emerson we're talking about.
This poll could have a Trump bias, but the only other recent OH "A" poll we have is Monmouth, so it's hard to tell Smiley
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 11:42:41 am »

https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/770281511933341698
https://twitter.com/LPDonovan/status/770284111399362560

Republican Liam Donovan, who writes for the National Review, notes this is

1. Landline only
2. Weighted to 2012 results which researchers have noted is flawed as people don't like to admit voting for the loser http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/13/weight-polls-past-vote_n_3923178.html
3. They magically adjust their # for IVR conservative bias


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Castro
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 11:44:35 am »

Wtf kind of weighting technique is this?
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2016, 11:48:55 am »

Landline only polls in 2016 are trash. Not even worth discussing.
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fuck nazis
Fusionmunster
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2016, 11:54:04 am »

Uhm...
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Gass3268
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2016, 11:58:55 am »

Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  · 17m17 minutes ago   Washington, DC   
If you're writing up polls that don't have any means to contact vtrs without a landline, you're wasting everyone's time--most of all, yours

This explains why they had that won NY Primary poll with Hillary in the 70's.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2016, 12:01:23 pm »

Quote
Our first step in weighting is to survey more than enough people. This allows us to then be able to systematically reject individual surveys from demographics that are over represented.  Next, survey data is weighted with a 3 point decrease in Conservative opinion and a 3 point increase in Liberal opinion to offset the bias in land line only telephone polls.
Yeah... What the hell is this?
3 point? Wtf? How did they calculate it?
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“People have forgotten this truth," the fox said. "But you mustn’t forget it. You become responsible forever for what you’ve tamed. You’re responsible for your rose.”
Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2016, 12:01:55 pm »

Yeesh... combining the worst of landlines with the worst weighting technique... and Hillary is still tied/ahead. Not as encouraging for Trump as first appeared.
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2016, 01:05:41 pm »

Wow, just looking at that methodology - absolute garbage pollster.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 01:22:55 pm by john cage bubblegum »Logged
dspNY
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« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2016, 01:07:45 pm »

Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  · 17m17 minutes ago   Washington, DC   
If you're writing up polls that don't have any means to contact vtrs without a landline, you're wasting everyone's time--most of all, yours

This explains why they had that won NY Primary poll with Hillary in the 70's.

Yup, they forgot that most voters under 35, which was a sanders demographic, do not have landlines
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