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Author Topic: OH/PA-Emerson: Portman +15, Toomey +7  (Read 1642 times)
Joni Ernst 20∞
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« on: August 29, 2016, 08:45:55 am »

Ohio

Rob Portman (R, inc.): 40%
Ted Strickland (D): 25%

Portman favorability: 41/35 (+6)
Strickland favorability: 26/54 (-28)

Pennsylvania

Pat Toomey (R, inc.): 46%
Katie McGinty (D): 39%

Toomey favorability: 35/38 (-3)
McGinty favorability: 28/39 (-11)

Link.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 09:32:00 am by TN volunteer »Logged

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Citizen (The) Doctor
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 08:52:22 am »

wut
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 09:00:15 am »

That confirms this pollster is junk lol. I know Portman is leading, but Strickland is definitely not at 25%.  And regarding PA, most polls have shown a close race in Mcginty's favour, so Toomey, while him leading is clearly a possibility, isn't leading by 7 points.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 09:00:22 am »

How stupid are the people of Atlas to believe this crap? Give me a break, folks!
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 09:04:35 am »

Way off, but Strickland is doing poorly in all recent polls. OH-Sen. is likely R at this point. Just hope this won't help Mr. Drumpf over the top to 18 electoral votes.
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 09:08:05 am »

Junk. Portman is up, but not by this much. Also, this is one of the very few PA-Sen polls I've seen since Clinton's post convention bump faded. I'd say Portman is up by 5 or 6, while Toomey is up by 1.
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2016, 09:25:18 am »

How stupid are the people of Atlas to believe this crap? Give me a break, folks!

Can you unskew the polls for us?

Anyway, I think PA is still a Tossup and will remain so until election day, but Ohio... I am moving it to Likely R.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 09:27:43 am by TN volunteer »Logged

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heatcharger
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2016, 09:31:43 am »

How stupid are the people of Atlas to believe this crap? Give me a break, folks!

Can you unskew the polls for us?

First of all, Emerson has a significant R lean. Everyone knows this. The last 3 PA polls from Quinnipiac, Susquehanna, and Marist, had McGinty +3/+4. You really believe Toomey has gained 10+ points since three weeks ago? I don't think so. This race is Lean D until I see some non-junk polls.

As for Ohio, yeah, Portman is leading, probably by upper single digits as this point, but any poll that has 35% undecided shouldn't be taken seriously.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2016, 09:39:23 am by heatcharger »Logged

olowakandi
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2016, 09:32:01 am »

Way off, but Strickland is doing poorly in all recent polls. OH-Sen. is likely R at this point. Just hope this won't help Mr. Drumpf over the top to 18 electoral votes.

It won't because as long as Pa remains a tossup Trump can't win without Iowa.
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Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2016, 09:36:55 am »

Way off, but Strickland is doing poorly in all recent polls. OH-Sen. is likely R at this point. Just hope this won't help Mr. Drumpf over the top to 18 electoral votes.

It won't because as long as Pa remains a tossup Trump can't win without Iowa.

Uh, FL/OH/PA equals 270. Tossup means roughly equal chance for both sides.
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olowakandi
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 09:41:18 am »

You should known by now the 538 272 model Pa/Iowa/NH/CO/NV/Me 2. Strickland isnt at 25%. QU is more reliable.
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2016, 09:42:10 am »

This is terrible... Our chances for the senate getting harder. NH, WI, NV, IL?
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olowakandi
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 09:56:34 am »

FL, NH, IN, IL, WI will get us to 51 and NV a tossup. But McGinty can win
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2016, 10:34:54 am »

Junk.
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2016, 11:02:25 am »

McGinty seems like exactly the sort of candidate who would be able to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory (and while Emerson leans R I don't think they lean so R that the D is leading when they show R up by 7 points), but I'd still wait for confirmation on this poll.
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2016, 11:21:17 am »

These results call into question their presidential numbers.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 04:41:42 pm »

Land-line only. Pure junk.
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 07:02:17 pm »

These polls are trash and mean nothing, but the D internal showing Evan Bayh up by 18 in Indiana means he's definitely favored. [/RedAvatarLogic]
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« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2016, 12:11:18 pm »

Land-line only. Pure junk.

Bad!
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2016, 06:59:20 pm »

35% undecided? lmao
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