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  Monmouth National: Clinton +7
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Author Topic: Monmouth National: Clinton +7  (Read 1636 times)
The Other Castro
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« on: August 29, 2016, 12:03:07 pm »

Clinton - 46%
Trump - 39%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 49%
Trump - 42%

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_US_082916/
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 12:03:58 pm »

Here we go.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 12:06:10 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:09:40 pm by Assemblyman Gass3268 »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 12:07:13 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:08:44 pm by heatcharger »

I guess this is proof the race has tightened a bit; their last poll had her up 13. Pretty good state of affairs going into Labor Day though.

Also looks like Johnson might have hit a wall; hasn't gained anything from their last national poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 12:07:42 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:09:27 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:10:15 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2016, 12:10:45 pm »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

It matches the Quinnipiac poll and even though the convention boost has worn off, this race is still high single digits.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2016, 12:10:54 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:13:14 pm by Castro »

Also, horrible favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57
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Xing
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2016, 12:11:42 pm »

Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2016, 12:11:48 pm »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

I'll take a poll any day that still has Trump under 40% and still has Clinton over 45%.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 12:11:51 pm »

Also, horrible approvals favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57

Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2016, 12:12:59 pm »

Also, horrible approvals favorables for both candidates:

Clinton: 34-51
Trump: 26-57

Yeah this is on the lower side for Clinton, and about par the course for Trump.

Ah woops, I was tracking Obama's approval rating earlier and the words jumbled.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 12:15:38 pm »

Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
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dspNY
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« Reply #13 on: August 29, 2016, 12:17:46 pm »

The +13 was always a little out of the norm...+7 is about right
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #14 on: August 29, 2016, 12:17:51 pm »

Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
State polls for levels, nationall polls for trends. Kind of Smiley
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Gass3268
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« Reply #15 on: August 29, 2016, 12:18:32 pm »

Yeah, her bounce has receded a bit, but she's still clearly ahead.

Yup!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #16 on: August 29, 2016, 12:20:59 pm »

Yes. It was approximately what LA times/other daily trackers were showing. But you didn't believe them.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #17 on: August 29, 2016, 12:30:11 pm »

Lol at the gender gap:

Males: Trump 44%, Clinton 36%
Females: Clinton 50%, Trump 29%

Looks like angry American women will carry Clinton to victory.
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dspNY
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« Reply #18 on: August 29, 2016, 12:35:57 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:37:31 pm by dspNY »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.

Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
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Seriously?
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« Reply #19 on: August 29, 2016, 12:36:49 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:45:28 pm by Seriously? »

Quote
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Does that mean Monmouth actually admits to adjusting for self-ID D/R/I with this poll or are they talking about the recorded Party ID (not self-id) voter sample they should have gotten using random sampling from the voter list vs. what they drew from the poll?

E.G. When cross-referencing voter lists, Sample should be X% D, Y% R, Z% I from registration lists, but was A% D, B% R, C% I.

It was an R+2 sample, which ended up D+4 after the reweighs. Note that this is a question to some of you that are more versed at polling adjustments than I am, not a comment on the subject or the underlying polling itself.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #20 on: August 29, 2016, 12:58:20 pm »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.

Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
Kind of. Even if I think that the race is C+4-6 right now rather than C+6-8.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #21 on: August 29, 2016, 12:59:14 pm »

Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: August 29, 2016, 01:01:18 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 01:05:52 pm by Seriously? »

Also note, they did poll the 2-way and LV vs. RV.

LV favors Trump by 2 points in 2-way, no effect in 4-way.

2-way RV (802 RV) Clinton +9
Donald Trump   38% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   47% (-3)
Other                 4% (--)
Undecided          7% (+1)
No one               4% (--)

2-way LV (689 LV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump   42% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   49% (-5)
Other                 4% (+1)
Undecided          5% (+2)
No one               0% (--)

4-way RV (802 RV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump    36% (+2)
Hillary Clinton    43% (-3)
Gary Johnson      8% (+1)
Jill Stein              2% (--)
Other                  1% (+1)
Undecided           7% (+1)
No one                4% (--)

4-way LV (689 LV) Clinton +7
Donald Trump   39% (+2)
Hillary Clinton   46% (-4)
Gary Johnson     7% (--)
Jill Stein             2% (--)
Other                 1% (+1)
Undecided          5% (+2)
No one               0% (--)
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Erich Maria Remarque
LittleBigPlanet
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« Reply #23 on: August 29, 2016, 01:04:51 pm »

8.      As of today, Donald Trump has not released his taxes because he says they are going through a routine I.R.S. audit.  Do you think he is keeping his taxes private because of the audit process or because there is something in those returns he doesn't want the public to know?

24%  Because of the audit
52%  Something he doesn't want the public to know
3%    (VOL) Both
5%    (VOL) Neither
16%  (VOL) Don't know


10.    Do you think Hillary Clinton gave special treatment to big donors of the Clinton Foundation when she was Secretary of State or did she do nothing out of the ordinary in the way she treated them?

54%  Special treatment
26%  Nothing out of the ordinary
20%  (VOL) Don't know
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #24 on: August 29, 2016, 01:15:36 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 01:17:52 pm by psychprofessor »


What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
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