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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Monmouth National: Clinton +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth National: Clinton +7  (Read 1633 times)
psychprofessor
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« on: August 29, 2016, 01:15:36 pm »
« edited: August 29, 2016, 01:17:52 pm by psychprofessor »


What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election (Gore in 2000!) and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 01:22:57 pm »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 01:44:27 pm »

Up 7 with likely voters! Terrific

And wow the race narrows from 9 points to 7 points, what great momentum for Donald Trump (shrugs shoulders)

Also means that there are more Clinton voters out there and a successful GOTV effort could add an additional 2%.

Some speculation on twitter suggests that Clinton can add 2-3% to her final pop vote total by taking advantage of early voting and ground operations. My initial thought at the beginning of the election was Clinton by 10 and I think that's a pretty good indication of where we will be come November.
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