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  Monmouth National: Clinton +7 (search mode)
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Author Topic: Monmouth National: Clinton +7  (Read 1639 times)
Erich Maria Remarque
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« on: August 29, 2016, 12:07:42 pm »
« edited: August 29, 2016, 12:09:27 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Their latest poll

AUG. 4-7   Monmouth University   

Clinton 50%
Trump 37%
Johnson 7%

Clinton +13   

So we now have evidence, that daily trackers/Pew were right Smiley
They even might underestimated Clinton's loss. They showed - (2-3) Pew (-5), Monmouth (-6)!!!111
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2016, 12:08:26 pm »
« Edited: August 29, 2016, 12:10:15 pm by LittleBigPlanet »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2016, 12:17:51 pm »

Basically you are in deep trouble if you are pumped about a poll showing you down 7 and under 40
State polls for levels, nationall polls for trends. Kind of Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2016, 12:20:59 pm »

Yes. It was approximately what LA times/other daily trackers were showing. But you didn't believe them.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2016, 12:58:20 pm »

Suck that Emerson!

I like seeing Clinton inch closer to 50% in the 4 way vote.
It was +13 for two weeks ago Smiley

One more time. Nationalls polls for trends, state polls for levels. Very simplified.

Or all post convention effects are gone and we are right back where we were in June, with a comfortable high single digit lead for Clinton, now backed by Quinnipiac which used bad demographic samples for their national polling before the convention. This +7 poll also indicates a solidified electorate since polls a month after the convention will have fewer true undecideds
Kind of. Even if I think that the race is C+4-6 right now rather than C+6-8.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2016, 12:59:14 pm »

Mr Neither is most favorable candidate!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2016, 01:04:51 pm »

8.      As of today, Donald Trump has not released his taxes because he says they are going through a routine I.R.S. audit.  Do you think he is keeping his taxes private because of the audit process or because there is something in those returns he doesn't want the public to know?

24%  Because of the audit
52%  Something he doesn't want the public to know
3%    (VOL) Both
5%    (VOL) Neither
16%  (VOL) Don't know


10.    Do you think Hillary Clinton gave special treatment to big donors of the Clinton Foundation when she was Secretary of State or did she do nothing out of the ordinary in the way she treated them?

54%  Special treatment
26%  Nothing out of the ordinary
20%  (VOL) Don't know
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #7 on: August 29, 2016, 01:31:18 pm »

What's interesting is that these favorability ratings predicted the correct winner in each election and came pretty close to predicting the pop vote margin.
Since everything but 1992, 1996, 2000 Gallup Poll and the 2016 Monmouth poll was an actual exit poll, I would hope the correct winner in each election would be chosen as well as the popular vote margin.

Obviously, the polls in 1992, 1996 and 2000 were the final polls of the cycle, not August.

These are favorability ratings, not actual "who did you vote for" polls, though. I mentioned in a previous thread that favorability rankings are more predictive than actual polls right now - and as you can see above, the favorability ratings come pretty close to the actual pop vote margin.

In this cycle Hillary seems to run 8-12 points more favorable than Trump.
I agree with you, that favorability ratings are pretty good indicatons, but this election might be littble off though, because both candidates are so dissliked. {And Shy Effect!!!111}

Besides that you compare favorability ratings of RV voters [this poll] with thouse who actually voted  (exit polls).

And according to Gallup daily tracker Hillary's lead were at 10 points maximum. Among National Adults.
Right now it is Clinton +7 Smiley
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #8 on: August 29, 2016, 03:39:14 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #9 on: August 29, 2016, 04:57:32 pm »

Inconsistent with the Emerson polls of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania.
Yes. This poll showed 6 points swing towards Trump, while Emerson polls didn't?
Emerson's polls were their first general election polls of the cycle.
I was sarcastic. But there's a grain of truth in every joke Wink
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #10 on: August 29, 2016, 05:08:29 pm »

Update:

Today the new numbers arrived. Now it just 5 points difference in their favorability. Clinton is at 38/56 (her all-time-low was 37/58 and that is also Trump's all-time-high Grin) while Trump on 33/61.

So from C+10 for two weeks ago to C+5 Smiley will do

http://www.gallup.com/poll/189299/presidential-election-2016-key-indicators.aspx
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2016, 05:50:57 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.

They are also alluding that there will probably be a TV release tonight. I'm guessing Rachel Maddow will have it.
Does it indicate some BREAKING NEWS?
Don't think so, but you cannot take away hope from me Grin
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: August 29, 2016, 06:25:16 pm »

PPP says their poll tomorrow will be a 5 on the Dem happiness scale so I am guessing Clinton +4

Well, they said Trump being up 3 in Ohio was a 6 on the freak out meter, so I think it'll be between a 5 to 7 lead.
Their latest poll showed Clinton +5 and was conducting directly after convention (JUL. 29-30)

So it depends on what they compared D-hapiness to. The state of the race or their latest poll.
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