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  PPP National: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: PPP National: Clinton +5  (Read 2243 times)
Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #25 on: August 29, 2016, 09:14:49 pm »

Zero change in the margin from last time

#Tightening

But the tracking polls show a trend. Wink There will be shy Trump voters like Brexit Grin
If that is the case, then it is a poverty that so many people are ashamed of their values.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #26 on: August 29, 2016, 09:21:16 pm »

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.
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« Reply #27 on: August 29, 2016, 09:21:52 pm »

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #28 on: August 29, 2016, 09:24:53 pm »

I've had Clinton +8.5 as my (written on a post-it in my drawer for posterity) prediction for a while now, and I think this and Monmouth are looking good for that.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #29 on: August 29, 2016, 09:40:24 pm »

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

It's also notable that Johnson seems to have peaked as of the most recent round of polls.  This should be enough to keep him out of the debates, and a 3-way debate should be one of Clinton's biggest fears right now.  I don't think we're at 2008 levels though.  There weren't really any Obama +1-3 polls at all after Lehman.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5
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Seriously?
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« Reply #30 on: August 29, 2016, 10:04:58 pm »

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

It's also notable that Johnson seems to have peaked as of the most recent round of polls.  This should be enough to keep him out of the debates, and a 3-way debate should be one of Clinton's biggest fears right now.  I don't think we're at 2008 levels though.  There weren't really any Obama +1-3 polls at all after Lehman.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5
Except Pew and Bloomberg, but who's counting.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #31 on: August 29, 2016, 10:08:39 pm »

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

It's also notable that Johnson seems to have peaked as of the most recent round of polls.  This should be enough to keep him out of the debates, and a 3-way debate should be one of Clinton's biggest fears right now.  I don't think we're at 2008 levels though.  There weren't really any Obama +1-3 polls at all after Lehman.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5
Except Pew and Bloomberg, but who's counting.

You, but you need everything you can get.

The last Bloomberg was +6 two-way wasn't it?
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #32 on: August 29, 2016, 10:09:38 pm »

We weren't going to make up the deficit overnight, but we're on track to come out ahead on November 8th!!
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #33 on: August 29, 2016, 10:14:53 pm »

We weren't going to make up the deficit overnight, but we're on track to come out ahead on November 8th!!

Wow, yeah! All of that no movement at all...

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OwlRhetoric
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« Reply #34 on: August 29, 2016, 11:19:21 pm »

This poll and Monmouth may be fatal to any hopes Gary Johnson had of waging an extra relevant third party campaign. He isn't getting into the debates with less than half of 15%.

Not sure why they included McMullin in a national poll. Why even bother polling him outside Utah? He isn't on enough ballots to have a theoretical chance of winning.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #35 on: August 29, 2016, 11:35:00 pm »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #36 on: August 30, 2016, 12:05:07 am »

This poll and Monmouth may be fatal to any hopes Gary Johnson had of waging an extra relevant third party campaign. He isn't getting into the debates with less than half of 15%.

Not sure why they included McMullin in a national poll. Why even bother polling him outside Utah? He isn't on enough ballots to have a theoretical chance of winning.

Yeah. He's on 7 ballots the last time I checked. Maybe something like 50 electoral votes.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: August 30, 2016, 12:14:26 am »
« Edited: August 30, 2016, 12:24:04 am by LittleBigPlanet »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead Sad


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now Smiley

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #38 on: August 30, 2016, 12:27:15 am »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead Sad


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now Smiley

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #39 on: August 30, 2016, 12:53:05 am »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead Sad


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now Smiley

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.
But it is what LA times approximately shows. It has Trump +6 house effect according to 538. So I don't really understand problem with those trackers.

My perception is that the race is at Clinton +5-7%, hopping for 4-6% for now.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #40 on: August 30, 2016, 12:55:11 am »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead Sad


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now Smiley

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.
But it is what LA times approximately shows. It has Trump +6 house effect according to 538. So I don't really understand problem with those trackers.

My perception is that the race is at Clinton +5-7%, hopping for 4-6% for now.

My problem is that it throws the aggregates, namely RCP. I don't really care what Nate Silver likes or dislikes or that he knows the house effect. I care that this obvious garbage is skewing the picture.

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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #41 on: August 30, 2016, 02:47:10 am »

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.
It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead Sad


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now Smiley

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.
But it is what LA times approximately shows. It has Trump +6 house effect according to 538. So I don't really understand problem with those trackers.

My perception is that the race is at Clinton +5-7%, hopping for 4-6% for now.

My problem is that it throws the aggregates, namely RCP. I don't really care what Nate Silver likes or dislikes or that he knows the house effect. I care that this obvious garbage is skewing the picture.


Understood! Even though I don't understand why care about RCP.
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Chief Justice windjammer
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« Reply #42 on: August 30, 2016, 05:10:52 am »

Obviously good for Democrats, but it's the swing state polls that really matter IMO.
Of course!

-------
I know it doesn't sound like a 10 points margin win right now, but I believe it will be the result in the end.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #43 on: August 30, 2016, 10:32:47 am »

The full poll is out: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_National_83016.pdf
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #44 on: August 30, 2016, 10:35:08 am »

I hate people and love the PPP:

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The Other Castro
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« Reply #45 on: August 30, 2016, 10:36:08 am »

I hate people and love the PPP:

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....................................................
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #46 on: August 30, 2016, 10:38:26 am »

I hate people and love the PPP:

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Lol, what!? Grin Grin Grin
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Gass3268
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« Reply #47 on: August 30, 2016, 10:38:30 am »

PPP is amazing
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #48 on: August 30, 2016, 10:40:52 am »

I hate people and love the PPP:

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Stupid question, because Muslims can come through Pacific Ocean as well. More walls! LOL Grin
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #49 on: August 30, 2016, 11:03:23 am »

I hate people and love the PPP:

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Imagine what happens when they learn that Muslims from India and Indonesia come mainly through the Pacific.
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