PPP National: Clinton +5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Oh... that's fine.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Things with higher favorabilities than Trump in that same poll: Bed bugs, the Bubonic Plague, and middle seats on airplanes.

Man, I'd feel terrible about myself if only 5% more of Americans prefer me to those things.

Whatever helps you sleep at night.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

It's also notable that Johnson seems to have peaked as of the most recent round of polls.  This should be enough to keep him out of the debates, and a 3-way debate should be one of Clinton's biggest fears right now.  I don't think we're at 2008 levels though.  There weren't really any Obama +1-3 polls at all after Lehman.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Somewhat encouraging.  Maybe the +13 Monmouth was just a yuge outlier and things are settling into Clinton +4-6 rather than steadily drifting toward Trump.

Of course Monmouth was an outlier. I think we're sitting in an 08-esque position right now.

And the ever-crucial Labor Day Weekend draws close.

It's also notable that Johnson seems to have peaked as of the most recent round of polls.  This should be enough to keep him out of the debates, and a 3-way debate should be one of Clinton's biggest fears right now.  I don't think we're at 2008 levels though.  There weren't really any Obama +1-3 polls at all after Lehman.

Not as it was in 08, but end result. Plus, outside of trackers/online polls, we haven't had anything below a Clinton +5

Except Pew and Bloomberg, but who's counting.

You, but you need everything you can get.

The last Bloomberg was +6 two-way wasn't it?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

We weren't going to make up the deficit overnight, but we're on track to come out ahead on November 8th!!

Wow, yeah! All of that no movement at all...

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.

It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

no TRUMPer should be clapping over a poll going in no direction whatsoever.

It is an OK result,  even though I've been hoping for margin of error lead


But you can't just look at one poll. Just for the 2-4 it'd would look like an outlier when we were getting a lot of polls with Clinton leading by 8-14. Now it is not an outlier. Hopefully, it is new normal  for now

For example, if Seizer will again show Clinton +4, it'd not be bad.

Well it would be for us... but I think we're looking at a 6-8% national race. I think the post-DNC bounce had receded by only a point or two. So far, the trackers and online polls are Trump's only real glimmer of hope.

But it is what LA times approximately shows. It has Trump +6 house effect according to 538. So I don't really understand problem with those trackers.

My perception is that the race is at Clinton +5-7%, hopping for 4-6% for now.

My problem is that it throws the aggregates, namely RCP. I don't really care what Nate Silver likes or dislikes or that he knows the house effect. I care that this obvious garbage is skewing the picture.