IL-Normington Petts: Duckworth +7

[Ebsy]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view

Duckworth: 44
Kirk: 37

Democratic firm so take it with the appropriate salt.

[Green Line]

4-5 point win for Lyin' Tammy. 

[Gass3268]

Good 5 point bump for Duckworth over the past month! Very nice!

[Xing]

She's underperforming Clinton by 12, but honestly, that's good enough for her to win.

[Higgs]

Impressive at how close Kirk is making it, Duckworth will severely under perform Clinton.

[Kingpoleon]

This poll was taken just before Kasich began campaigning with Kirk. Interesting.

[IceSpear]

This is actually not a terrible poll for Kirk. Why can't a reliable pollster poll this race?

The weird part is we've had quite a few Illinois presidential polls, but they never poll the Senate race.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

This is actually not a terrible poll for Kirk. Why can't a reliable pollster poll this race?

The weird part is we've had quite a few Illinois presidential polls, but they never poll the Senate race.

Pollsters seem to be heavily convinced that Mark Kirk is toast.

[Gass3268]

This poll was taken just before Kasich began campaigning with Kirk. Interesting.

I don't see how a guy who got 19.74% in a Republican Primary (winning zero counties, including Lake by 9%) will help that much.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Kirk needs to quit harping on the Syrian refugees and go after Duckworth on her lawsuit, her dishonesty, and her gaffe about Cook County.  If he does, he can still win, especially given the fact that he's a moderate, socially liberal Republican who doesn't scare suburbanites.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view

Duckworth: 44
Kirk: 37

Democratic firm so take it with the appropriate salt.

Unless it's a PPP poll, which is gospel on this forum.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

This is actually not a terrible poll for Kirk. Why can't a reliable pollster poll this race?

The weird part is we've had quite a few Illinois presidential polls, but they never poll the Senate race.

Pollsters seem to be heavily convinced that Mark Kirk is toast.

That's true.  They've written him off even before the campaign started, despite numerous polls that show him within striking distance.

[Phony Moderate]

Jack and Vera will be chuffed no doubt.

[Kingpoleon]

This poll was taken just before Kasich began campaigning with Kirk. Interesting.

I don't see how a guy who got 19.74% in a Republican Primary (winning zero counties, including Lake by 9%) will help that much.

His national approvals of 62-30 beg to differ.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

In 2010, Kirk won because he did very well in the collar and the suburbs within Cook county, at the same time that Brady's all downstate ticket was driving up the numbers in the South and central portions of the state.


Kirk's only hope is to massively outran Trump in Chicago suburbs and hope that those same portions of the state that came in strong for Brady also come out for Trump.

On paper Trump is the perfect candidate for those parts of the state (South up to the Driftless Area). The problem of course is Trump's erratic nature/statements and disorganized campaign. But who the hell knows. Trump says he plans to secretly target surprise states and if he does so here, he might just bring out enough to boost Kirk over the top.

It is a long shot and a balancing act, but it is probably Kirk's only hope.

[Mr.Phips]

In 2010, Kirk won because he did very well in the collar and the suburbs within Cook county, at the same time that Brady's all downstate ticket was driving up the numbers in the South and central portions of the state.


Kirk's only hope is to massively outran Trump in Chicago suburbs and hope that those same portions of the state that came in strong for Brady also come out for Trump.

On paper Trump is the perfect candidate for those parts of the state (South up to the Driftless Area). The problem of course is Trump's erratic nature/statements and disorganized campaign. But who the hell knows. Trump says he plans to secretly target surprise states and if he does so here, he might just bring out enough to boost Kirk over the top.

It is a long shot and a balancing act, but it is probably Kirk's only hope.

Even getting the same numbers he did in the collar counties in 2010 (very doubtful), Presidential year Chicago turnout will sink him. 

[Coolface Sock #42069]

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view

Duckworth: 44
Kirk: 37

Democratic firm so take it with the appropriate salt.

Never heard of this firm. Is it reliable or hackish (or just plain trash)? My first instinct is, of course, to dismiss this entirely.