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Author Topic: NC Emerson Poll, Trump +1.4  (Read 1314 times)
Sorenroy
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« on: August 30, 2016, 12:27:29 pm »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_3a8db9da60ec4ceb961732ea0d849022.pdf

Trump - 44.8%
Clinton - 43.4%
Johnson - 7.7%
Stein - 2.1% (official write-in, not on ballot)
Undecided - 2.0%

800 LV

Burr (R) is also beating Ross (D) for senate by 3.9% (45.2-41.3).

Crosstabs include number of people polled by CD. They range from the high the ninth district (82 people), to the low of the second district (37 people).
« Last Edit: August 30, 2016, 12:34:52 pm by Sorenroy »Logged

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dspNY
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« Reply #1 on: August 30, 2016, 12:28:33 pm »

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_3a8db9da60ec4ceb961732ea0d849022.pdf

Trump - 45%
Clinton - 43%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 2% (official write-in, not on ballot)

800 LV

Actually 1.4%. Also you can't list stein as part of any NC poll since she's not on the ballot
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Joni Ernst 20∞
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: August 30, 2016, 12:39:41 pm »

Can't be right if Clinton is up 8 in PA. Did they poll only landlines again?
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heatcharger
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« Reply #3 on: August 30, 2016, 12:41:39 pm »

Joke poll for a lot of reasons.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #4 on: August 30, 2016, 12:42:26 pm »

Can't be right if Clinton is up 8 in PA. Did they poll only landlines again?

Probably. I can't imagine that they switched methodologies just for NC.
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Xing
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« Reply #5 on: August 30, 2016, 12:43:02 pm »

Considering this is Emerson, this is a pretty bad poll for both Trump and Burr.
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swf541
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« Reply #6 on: August 30, 2016, 12:50:40 pm »

Considering this is Emerson, this is a pretty bad poll for both Trump and Burr.

Yep
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #7 on: August 30, 2016, 12:53:09 pm »

Decimal alert, we have a decimal alert, all hands on deck.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #8 on: August 30, 2016, 12:55:27 pm »

Emerson IVR poll = junk
PPP IVR poll + 20% Internet = greatest thing since sliced bread

Is that how the red avatar group think is supposed to go?
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Castro
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« Reply #9 on: August 30, 2016, 01:02:20 pm »

Emerson IVR poll = junk
PPP IVR poll + 20% Internet = greatest thing since sliced bread

Is that how the red avatar group think is supposed to go?

Don't worry, this election will be over soon and you won't have to worry about these mean scary polls.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #10 on: August 30, 2016, 01:03:04 pm »

Emerson IVR poll = junk
PPP IVR poll + 20% Internet = greatest thing since sliced bread

Is that how the red avatar group think is supposed to go?

PPP was pretty damn accurate in 2012, so they probably know what they're doing. Is it the best formula? Maybe not, but at least they have an Internet portion.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #11 on: August 30, 2016, 01:05:32 pm »

Can't be right if Clinton is up 8 in PA. Did they poll only landlines again?
Emerson only does IVR landline polls. They're a trash uni poll.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2016, 01:07:08 pm »

great news for Clinton! They can't even show a non-margin of error lead for Trump in North Carolina of all places. Literally a must win for him. Sad!
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2016, 01:13:13 pm »

great news for Clinton! They can't even show a non-margin of error lead for Trump in North Carolina of all places. Literally a must win for him. Sad!
They? It is not pro R pollster.
They use very questionable methodology, but it doesn't imply per se that this methodology helps Trump.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2016, 01:21:23 pm »

Can't be right if Clinton is up 8 in PA. Did they poll only landlines again?

Probably. I can't imagine that they switched methodologies just for NC.

Definitely.  "Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only."
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Originally a Rockefeller Republican, then a long-time independent.  Converted to the Democrats in October 2018 out of revulsion at what the Republican party has become.
publicunofficial
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« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2016, 01:49:17 pm »

Can't be right if Clinton is up 8 in PA. Did they poll only landlines again?

Probably. I can't imagine that they switched methodologies just for NC.

Definitely.  "Data was collected using an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines only."

Using landline only is probably even worse than it was in 2012. More and more people cutting their cords, leaving only the oldest and whitest people as your sample. 
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2016, 04:10:19 pm »

Emerson might well be "junk" because of their polling methodology (IVR/Landlines Only), however their top-line numbers aren't totally unreasonable considering recent polls from various "A Grade" pollsters, and where we all collectively suspect the national numbers to be at.

Now if we can get another Marist poll of NC, it should help inform us as to whether their 8/4-8/10 was an outlier or if the race is basically tied, with perhaps a narrow Clinton edge.
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Wolverine22
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« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2016, 06:55:51 pm »

Considering this is Emerson, this is a pretty bad poll for both Trump and Burr.

These people just polled Toomey with an 8-point lead, despite McGinty being in the lead consistently the last month. These have to be biased outliers.
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