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  WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5
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Author Topic: WI-Monmouth: Clinton +5  (Read 1615 times)
heatcharger
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« on: August 31, 2016, 12:07:50 pm »

http://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_WI_083116/

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 7%
Stein - 3%

Will be interesting to compare to the Marquette poll.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2016, 12:09:25 pm »

Will be interesting to compare to Marquette here in 5 minutes.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #2 on: August 31, 2016, 12:09:46 pm »

Closer than PA... called it.

Will be interesting to compare to Marquette here in 5 minutes.
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #3 on: August 31, 2016, 12:10:23 pm »

The closeness of that margin makes Feingold's +13 even better
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Xing
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« Reply #4 on: August 31, 2016, 12:11:16 pm »

Interesting that it's a bit tighter than I thought, but this state is definitely still Hillary's to lose.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #5 on: August 31, 2016, 12:12:25 pm »

   Junk poll, does not fit narrative of Trump collapse. Please disregard.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #6 on: August 31, 2016, 12:12:37 pm »

Ouch. Marquette comes out later today, right?
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F_S_USATN
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« Reply #7 on: August 31, 2016, 12:13:12 pm »

Time to dust off the FL, NC, OH, IA, WI 269 map quick before MUlaw comes out
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john cage bubblegum
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« Reply #8 on: August 31, 2016, 12:13:16 pm »

Surprisingly close.  Monmouth is a good pollster, but their small samples allow for a pretty high MoE.  Let's see what Marquette has to say.
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #9 on: August 31, 2016, 12:16:39 pm »

Another poll showing that Hillary has seen her support decline, but Trump is still not actually generating any new support of his own.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #10 on: August 31, 2016, 12:17:01 pm »

Ouch. Perhaps some recovery in WOW for Trump?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #11 on: August 31, 2016, 12:18:59 pm »

Ouch. Perhaps some recovery in WOW for Trump?

Quite likely.... looks like he is consolidating the Republican vote to a greater extent than before in WI based on this poll.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #12 on: August 31, 2016, 12:21:26 pm »

   Junk poll, does not fit narrative of Trump collapse. Please disregard.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #13 on: August 31, 2016, 12:24:57 pm »

Another poll showing that Hillary has seen her support decline, but Trump is still not actually generating any new support of his own.
You are one of the few Clinton's supporters here, who I mostly agree with Smiley

Hope it does not sound as an insult for you Grin
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #14 on: August 31, 2016, 12:28:04 pm »

Houston ... we have a problem.

Hope she's not BLOWING it.
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HillOfANight
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« Reply #15 on: August 31, 2016, 12:48:25 pm »

This seems like proof ads are working, as WI is closer now than CO/PA after those states have been bombarded with ads. In 2012, Obama won WI by 7, CO by 5, PA by 5.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #16 on: August 31, 2016, 01:27:22 pm »

I'm genuinely surprised by these WI polls. I honestly would have thought the margin to be around +10 or so.
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afleitch
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« Reply #17 on: August 31, 2016, 01:53:07 pm »

Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.
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skoods
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« Reply #18 on: August 31, 2016, 01:55:38 pm »

Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #19 on: August 31, 2016, 01:59:23 pm »

Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
Not sure I agree. Almost all the polls seem to show the same pattern right now.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #20 on: August 31, 2016, 02:16:14 pm »

Wake me up when trump can reach 40 percent.

All this talk about tightening polls, yet none of it shows trump gaining support. It's just fluctuations in numbers.
Not sure I agree. Almost all the polls seem to show the same pattern right now.

I think it's clear that there's been some tightening here and there.  A couple of weeks ago, the polls seemed to indicate a Clinton lead of something like 6-7, and now it's more like 4-5.  Now it seems that we're seeing a fluctuation in the general trend of the race, as opposed to random fluctuation in individual polls.  But this isn't unreasonable; it's more unlikely that the race would remain static or move in only one direction for the rest of the campaign.

+4-5 isn't as good as +6-7, but it's still a number that you'd really prefer to be on the positive side of.  Democrats should be neither panicking nor overconfident; Republicans should be worried, but not without hope.  It's still a long 10 weeks until Election Day.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #21 on: August 31, 2016, 04:35:49 pm »

Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.

How can you even compare this election to 2012?? Romney didn't punch himself 30 times with all the gaffes like Trump.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #22 on: August 31, 2016, 04:46:06 pm »

Clinton's margin, with both polls is still higher than Obama's was in 2012 at the same time in the race.

How can you even compare this election to 2012?? Romney didn't punch himself 30 times with all the gaffes like Trump.
And Romney didn't get outperformed by Obama in ads spending in the same level as Trump by Hillary Smiley
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Dom. Pol. Councilor Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #23 on: August 31, 2016, 04:48:52 pm »

Trump definitely seems to be catching up to some degree.
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