PA-Monmouth: Clinton +8

[windjammer]

but muh western pennsylvania is going to win the state for trump because... white genocide? economic anxiety?

Lmao,
Definitely the best comment of this day!

[Devout Centrist]

McGinty plus 4, rip Toomey.

Clearly a 4-point deficit is insurmountable with 2 months left.

He has to differentiate himself from Trump fast.

Portman has the luxury of endorsing Same sex marriage a couple of years back to seperate himself from some of the negative affects of the platform.

I doubt that SSM is much of a factor in that race. Strickland's record as governor is terrible, Portman's massive ground operation is by far the best one of any Republican running this year and he didn't waste any time burying Strickland in negative ads. Strickland's comments obviously didn't help either.

It's not the issue itself that matters, but what it symbolizes. Strickland would probably be closer against a generic R. That's what I'm getting at.

[ProudModerate2]

Democrats couldn't have wished for a better poll.  This election is over.

If this kind of number holds-up for PA through October, I think you are right ; game over !

[KingSweden]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/770676564493295616

538's Harry Enten

Monmouth echoes Marist in SE PA. Marist had Clinton up ~35 in Philly + burbs. Monmouth has her up 33. Obama won it by 25.

Curious if this could help flip some of those R-held SEPA house seats

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Monmouth had Clinton +9 in Florida for 2 weeks ago. Florida is 3-4 to the right of PA, implying that the race have tightened by 4-5 pps!!!!111

#TrumpQuantumMechanics

[Tender Branson]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

[Fusionmunster]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

[The Other Castro]

Monmouth had Clinton +9 in Florida for 2 weeks ago. Florida is 3-4 to the right of PA, implying that the race have tightened by 4-5 pps!!!!111

#TrumpQuantumMechanics

Stahhhhhp. I know you're joking and all, but reading that caused me physical pain.

[Tender Branson]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

I'm not a hack, I just averaged the 2 recent polls. That's all.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Monmouth had Clinton +9 in Florida for 2 weeks ago. Florida is 3-4 to the right of PA, implying that the race have tightened by 4-5 pps!!!!111

#TrumpQuantumMechanics

Stahhhhhp. I know you're joking and all, but reading that caused me physical pain.

It is my intention. I will make you so weak that you will not be able to go and vote. If you are not early-voting, damn it!

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not a good poll for sure, but we've gotten a few good polls the last few days.  We are definitely in a better position than a week ago, but still the underdog.  Now, the Senate can be kept, and it will pretty much come down to Nevada.

[Yank2133]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

He has been unhinged since Bernie demise.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

He has been unhinged since Bernie demise.

Monmouth is a very good pollster, for sure, but they have pretty small sample size which drives up the noise.

Just saying...

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

It's important to remember that Toomey's Club for Growth brand of conservatism isn't exactly a great fit for the Keystone State.

Yea, good to see him going down. Just because he isn't a complete raving lunatic like Cruz or Trump, does  not mean he isn't a right wing extremist. A vote for Toomey is a vote for McConnell and Republicans controlling the Senate and another 2 years at least of unprecedented governmental obstruction.

[Yank2133]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

He has been unhinged since Bernie demise.

Monmouth is a very good pollster, for sure, but they have pretty small sample size which drives up the noise.

Just saying...

And this has anything to do with my post.......because?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton is winning 52/46 Pa.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Clinton is winning 52/46 Pa.

Probably a little more than that

[IceSpear]

Dominating! I'll take Monmouth over junky Emerson any day.

[IceSpear]

If we average the 2 recent polls, it's H+5.5 in PA.

In line with a H+4 lead nationally.

I'd be a little concerned if I were in the Clinton campaign with these MoE leads, but as long as she's properly ahead in CO and VA, it's ok.

You cant be that much of a hack to ignore all the problems with the Emerson polls, right?

I'm not a hack, I just averaged the 2 recent polls. That's all.

"I just averaged Zogby and Selzer. What's the problem?"

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Dumb Nate Silver!
Polls-only

[IceSpear]

Yes, it is quite funny that Nate weights a B pollster higher than an A+ pollster, especially since he's the one who made the grades and the A+ pollster has slightly more recent field dates.

[Erich Maria Remarque]

Yes, it is quite funny that Nate weights a B pollster higher than an A+ pollster, especially since he's the one who made the grades and the A+ pollster has slightly more recent field dates.

The size of the sample matters!

[IceSpear]

Yes, it is quite funny that Nate weights a B pollster higher than an A+ pollster, especially since he's the one who made the grades and the A+ pollster has slightly more recent field dates.

The size of the sample matters!

His model must be very strange if it prioritizes sample size over quality, track record, and field dates. But whatever floats his boat.

I think what we really need are some Overtime Politics 5000 LV polls imo.

[Zanas]

Quality and track record are subjective. Field dates I think are indeed taken into account. But sample size is the primary data when you want to consider polls on a statistic level.