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  WI-Marquette: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Clinton +3  (Read 3391 times)
michelle
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« Reply #25 on: August 31, 2016, 12:41:22 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
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Sbane
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« Reply #26 on: August 31, 2016, 12:42:15 pm »

Well, at least the Iowa numbers make a little more sense now. Demographically, Wisconsin should be a great state for Trump. Lots of working class whites.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #27 on: August 31, 2016, 12:42:40 pm »

Marquette is a junk liberal pollster trying to get Trump to waste money there.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #28 on: August 31, 2016, 12:43:17 pm »

The bright side of this is that it could convince the Trump campaign to take on the typical "OMG! WISCONSIN IS TOTALLY WINNABLE/A TOSS-UP/TRENDING R! RED WISCONSIN HERE WE COME! W00T!" and waste money here.

I have yet to see any evidence that PA is more winnable for him than WI.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #29 on: August 31, 2016, 12:45:12 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
I am not the one who denies the polls Smiley
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Xing
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« Reply #30 on: August 31, 2016, 12:47:06 pm »

The bright side of this is that it could convince the Trump campaign to take on the typical "OMG! WISCONSIN IS TOTALLY WINNABLE/A TOSS-UP/TRENDING R! RED WISCONSIN HERE WE COME! W00T!" and waste money here.

I have yet to see any evidence that PA is more winnable for him than WI.

Most previous polls show him doing better in PA than WI, but overall, I agree, since he won't win either one.
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michelle
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« Reply #31 on: August 31, 2016, 12:47:13 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
I am not the one who denies the polls Smiley

In case you haven't noticed, Clinton is still winning.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #32 on: August 31, 2016, 12:49:31 pm »

I'm interested to see the crosstabs, but if I had to guess, Trump has recovered in the WOW region. Even then, I still think a candidate who's favorables are 28/63 just simply can't win the state. There's not enough Obama/Walker voters to get him over the top.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #33 on: August 31, 2016, 12:51:01 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
I am not the one who denies the polls Smiley

In case you haven't noticed, Clinton is still winning.
Did I say she is not winning right now? Huh

I DID NOT deny she was/is winning. But you DID deny trend showing by "junky" daily trackers.
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #34 on: August 31, 2016, 12:52:04 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
I am not the one who denies the polls Smiley

That's Trump who does that.
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michelle
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« Reply #35 on: August 31, 2016, 12:52:42 pm »

That its trend was highly consistent, does not count, huh? OK. We'll wait for ABC nationall poll. Don't be shocked when it shows the same trend Smiley

Don't be shocked when Trump gets crushed on Election Day.
I am not the one who denies the polls Smiley

In case you haven't noticed, Clinton is still winning.
Did I say she is not winning right now? Huh

I DID NOT deny she was/is winning. But you DID deny trend showing by "junky" daily trackers.

I didn't deny the trend. Can you show me where I denied the trend?
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MasterJedi
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« Reply #36 on: August 31, 2016, 12:53:26 pm »

I'm interested to see the crosstabs, but if I had to guess, Trump has recovered in the WOW region. Even then, I still think a candidate who's favorables are 28/63 just simply can't win the state. There's not enough Obama/Walker voters to get him over the top.

Most of the WOW county R's will come around. They don't like Trump but they HATE Hillary, and she's a Dem so their hatred of the left will overcome most of their dislike of Trump in the end, but I imagine he'll get a much lower share of that vote.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #37 on: August 31, 2016, 12:57:31 pm »

I didn't deny the trend. Can you show me where I denied the trend?
This discussion started by ↓ so I thougt you were agree with Maxwell. But LA Times is not a junk, if one is intrested in trends only.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #38 on: August 31, 2016, 01:01:26 pm »

More Republicans are certain to vote now than in July, reversing a decrease in that number from June. My guess is that more Republicans are backing Trump now too, and that's why the numbers have tightened. Southeast Wisconsin Republicans in particular have to be coming around, and its also worth noting many of the talk radio show hosts have also come around to voting for Trump in spite of everything in the past.

But I still don't think Trump can win the state. 52% are 'very uncomfortable' with him being president, 45% for Clinton, and that's the kind of margin I expect to see in the end, 52-45 or something.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #39 on: August 31, 2016, 01:01:30 pm »

I'm interested to see the crosstabs, but if I had to guess, Trump has recovered in the WOW region. Even then, I still think a candidate who's favorables are 28/63 just simply can't win the state. There's not enough Obama/Walker voters to get him over the top.

Most of the WOW county R's will come around. They don't like Trump but they HATE Hillary, and she's a Dem so their hatred of the left will overcome most of their dislike of Trump in the end, but I imagine he'll get a much lower share of that vote.

Yeah... they could be coming home... but the propensity to vote might have been so low last time around that it looked competitive in WOW. The last Marquette poll was in the field at the height of the bounce/Khan fiasco... I imagine a lot of GOPers were abstaining.
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Cruzcrew
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« Reply #40 on: August 31, 2016, 01:03:37 pm »

Looks like TN Volunteer has a point that Trump should focus on Wisconsin rather than Pennsylvania as it could be more likely to flip due to Trump's problems with Philly suburbs voters.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #41 on: August 31, 2016, 01:06:46 pm »

Marquette is a junk liberal pollster trying to get Trump to waste money there.
That's some funny stuff.....

Marquette is to Wisconsin what Seltzer is to Iowa. The gold standard.. Bar none...

And great news for Johnson in that poll, coming within striking distance of Feingold.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #42 on: August 31, 2016, 01:11:43 pm »

Marquette is a junk liberal pollster trying to get Trump to waste money there.
That's some funny stuff.....

Marquette is to Wisconsin what Seltzer is to Iowa. The gold standard.. Bar none...

And great news for Johnson in that poll, coming within striking distance of Feingold.

Ironically both Marquette and Selzer underestimated Cruz's lead in both states.
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The Other Castro
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« Reply #43 on: August 31, 2016, 01:22:02 pm »

Trump has been focusing a lot in Wisconsin campaign office-wise, though the Senate numbers from this same poll suggest a more Republican sample than usual for Marquette.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #44 on: August 31, 2016, 01:23:23 pm »

Looks like TN Volunteer has a point that Trump should focus on Wisconsin rather than Pennsylvania as it could be more likely to flip due to Trump's problems with Philly suburbs voters.

Yeah, my point is that he can't just rely on PA. He needs an alternative route to 270 that doesn't include VA, CO and NH (he's not going to win those states). So WI is pretty much his only hope in cases he loses PA, unless you think he can win MI.

Btw: I'd really like to see a MN poll now.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #45 on: August 31, 2016, 01:24:03 pm »

Favorables:

14-15 Johnson
37-58 Hillary
32-61 Trump
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Nhoj
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« Reply #46 on: August 31, 2016, 01:28:04 pm »

Well, at least the Iowa numbers make a little more sense now. Demographically, Wisconsin should be a great state for Trump. Lots of working class whites.
No just no. People who voted for Obama twice are not going to vote for trump. not to mention hes stuck at 42% that's just the republican baseline.
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Fusionmunster
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« Reply #47 on: August 31, 2016, 01:29:42 pm »

There both so low, but Hillary has room to recover. Trump does not.
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EliteLX
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« Reply #48 on: August 31, 2016, 01:42:36 pm »

The
269-269
IA-FL-OH-WI
EC
dream
lives
on!
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President Johnson
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« Reply #49 on: August 31, 2016, 01:43:57 pm »

Wut??
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