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  WI-Marquette: Clinton +3
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Author Topic: WI-Marquette: Clinton +3  (Read 3380 times)
Stockdale for Veep
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« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2016, 01:54:37 pm »

Continue to waste money here GOP. The broken swing state will never die.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2016, 02:47:59 pm »

this is genuinely worrisome, but at the same time, outliers happen.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #52 on: August 31, 2016, 03:11:32 pm »

The 269-269 IA-FL-OH-WI EC dream lives on!

TRUMP KAINE 2016!!! DO YOU BELIEVE IN MIRACLES?!?
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Pessimistic Antineutrino
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« Reply #53 on: August 31, 2016, 03:15:35 pm »

This seems... off but definitely encouraging considering it's Marquette.
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #54 on: August 31, 2016, 04:04:45 pm »

Looks like TN Volunteer has a point that Trump should focus on Wisconsin rather than Pennsylvania as it could be more likely to flip due to Trump's problems with Philly suburbs voters.
According to 538 who was extremely good so far (by believing daily trackers Smiley) we have the following so far (polls-only model):
Florida D+3.4
Pennsylvania D+5.1
Ohio D+2.7
Michigan D+7.0
Wisconsin D+5.5
North Carolina D+1.4
Virginia D+7.6
Minnesota D+6.9
Colorado D+7.0
Georgia R+2.2
Iowa D+1.6
Nevada D+4.0
New Jersey D+11.8
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King
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« Reply #55 on: August 31, 2016, 05:45:49 pm »

wow littleoctopusboy has really got us, fellow atlas cucks

clearly trump losing PA by 8 and WI by 3-5 is in line with him being up 3 points nationwide in the LA Times tracking poll
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Erich Maria Remarque
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« Reply #56 on: August 31, 2016, 05:58:20 pm »

wow littleoctopusboy has really got us, fellow atlas cucks

clearly trump losing PA by 8 and WI by 3-5 is in line with him being up 3 points nationwide in the LA Times tracking poll
You do understand what "trend" mean, don't you?
One more time, look at 538's model. Are they good/respected enough?
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #57 on: August 31, 2016, 06:46:58 pm »

So, my main question on this poll and all others conducted within the past week, is this:

How historically do polls conducted the week before the Labor Day weekend, stack up for historical accuracy?

I mean, for many this is the last weekend to head out on family vacations, take the kids out to the lake, etc....

Are there significant historical variances in polls conducted at a time where a huge chunk of voters are out and about before everything changes and it is easier and more realistic to actually contact registered and likely voters that are frequently unavailable during this particular week?
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
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« Reply #58 on: August 31, 2016, 06:52:33 pm »

If Wisconsin is this close, do we know for a fact that Minnesota isn't also?  I'd like to at least see a poll.

But, both campaigns do seem to be actively contesting WI- it's a swing state.
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Arch
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« Reply #59 on: August 31, 2016, 06:54:52 pm »

If Wisconsin is this close, do we know for a fact that Minnesota isn't also?  I'd like to at least see a poll.

But, both campaigns do seem to be actively contesting WI- it's a swing state.

No, for the same reason that IL isn't competitive.
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Classic Conservative
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« Reply #60 on: August 31, 2016, 07:28:51 pm »

But but but Trumps such a horrible fit for Catholics, he's losing badly. He is up by like 15% in Wisconsin.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #61 on: August 31, 2016, 07:31:27 pm »

So Donald Trump has gone a week without making a fool of himself. Miraculum miraculorum!

What looked like junky polls seem genuine enough now.
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Badger
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« Reply #62 on: September 01, 2016, 12:06:20 am »

So someon polling 37% is going to win on election day ?

Yeah , I'd take this bet.'
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