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  Did Obama Win West Tennessee in 2012?
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Author Topic: Did Obama Win West Tennessee in 2012?  (Read 2179 times)
Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« on: August 31, 2016, 08:44:30 pm »

It might be easier for someone with a membership to figure out?

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/index.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Divisions_of_Tennessee
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: August 31, 2016, 09:41:09 pm »

These are the numbers I got.

West Tennessee, 2012

Obama: 319,064 (51.6%)
Romney: 293,761 (47.5%)

Total: 618,678

The district is about as black as Mississippi, maybe a little bit blacker, so definitely tells you whites are less Republican even here than Mississippi/Alabama. 73% of Obama's vote came from Shelby County, only 46% of Romney's did.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #2 on: September 02, 2016, 03:26:14 pm »
« Edited: September 02, 2016, 03:32:50 pm by ExtremeRepublican »

Wow, that's really something.  I would bet that East Tennessee is probably as Republican as anywhere and Middle Tennessee looks like Alabama, then?

A combined East and Middle TN would then be:

Romney: 1,168,569 (63.5%)
Obama: 641,645 (34.9%)

It's a PVI of R+16 or R+17, but not quite as extreme as I would have guessed, since West TN is such a small slice of the population.
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Dabeav
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« Reply #3 on: October 19, 2016, 06:44:12 pm »

Just to chime in... since I lived in TN for a while it would be interesting to do as some suggested to me: Let Memphis/Shelby County cede to Mississippi.  I wonder if it would make TN the most heavily red/atlas-blue state and flip Mississippi.
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Pro-Life Single Issue Voter
ExtremeRepublican
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« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2016, 01:05:40 am »

Just to chime in... since I lived in TN for a while it would be interesting to do as some suggested to me: Let Memphis/Shelby County cede to Mississippi.  I wonder if it would make TN the most heavily red/atlas-blue state and flip Mississippi.

We calculated that somewhere, and giving TN-09 to Mississippi (the TN-08 section of Shelby County is actually GOP-leaning), Romney would have won New Mississippi narrowly, probably pending a recount.  ElectionsGuy calculated that the difference would have been a mere 790 votes!!  He would have won New Tennessee by 30, which would have been good for his 5th largest win, behind Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Idaho.  I would bet, though, that New Tennessee would be neck-and-neck with Oklahoma and West Virginia for Trump's biggest margin this year, while New Mississippi would be voting for Clinton.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=218324.0
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