Romanian Parliamentary Election, 11 December 2016

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Romania exit polls:

PSD - 45,8

PNL - 20,8

USR - 9,30

ALDE - 6,90

PMP - 4,7

UDMR - 6,7

[Beagle]

Romania exit polls:

PSD - 45,8

PNL - 20,8

USR - 9,30

ALDE - 6,90

PMP - 4,7

UDMR - 6,7

That's the Ires - the PSD house pollster, who were also projecting a Ponta victory at this time two years ago.  The pollster closer to the PNL has
PSD – 42,3%

PNL – 19,2%

USR – 10,1%

ALDE – 6%

UDMR – 5,4%

PMP – 5,2%

PRU – 4,5%

Btw, there doesn't appear to be a Macedonian elections thread. Not that there are any exit polls there, but in about half an hour, the first preliminary results should be posted. According to twitter, the opposition seems to be winning Skopje, but there does not appear to be much info about elsewhere.

[Mike88]

Low turnout favors the PSD and the leaked exit polls (to be taken with a truckload of salt) seem to confirm this:
PSD – 45%
PNL – 21%
USR – 14%
ALDE – 5%
UDMR –5*%
PMP – 4%
PRU – 3%
* will be over the threshold anyway due to having 20+% in 4 constituencies

Still, it's unlikely the PSD will get to 50%, which means that the president will not be obliged to name their nominee as PM. And since Johannis has stated innumerable times that he will not give the mandate to anybody who's been convicted or indicted for corruption, Dragnea probably will not be PM.

What?? The guy wins a huge majority and isn't certain he will not become PM?? That's ridiculous!

PS: I'm not really informed about Romania politics but i don't think there's a "clean" politician in Romania. Just saying.

[Lord Halifax]

That's the Ires - the PSD house pollster, who were also projecting a Ponta victory at this time two years ago. The pollster closer to the PNL has

(...)

Btw, there doesn't appear to be a Macedonian elections thread. Not that there are any exit polls there, but in about half an hour, the first preliminary results should be posted. According to twitter, the opposition seems to be winning Skopje, but there does not appear to be much info about elsewhere.

What is the name of said pollster?

Pls use decimal points when writing in English (say, 3.4%) instead of those "continental commas".

No, reason to post about Macedonia in the Romania thread. If there is no thread its because nobody cares about it.

[Beagle]

What is the name of said pollster?

Sociopol, the pollster of România TV.

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Yep, looks that way, but since there isn't much to discuss re:Romania, I just thought I'd post the Macedonian info as well.

[Beagle]

What?? The guy wins a huge majority and isn't certain he will not become PM?? That's ridiculous!

PS: I'm not really informed about Romania politics but i don't think there's a "clean" politician in Romania. Just saying.

<hack> 83-85% of all eligible voters did not vote for the PSD -> Dragnea has no mandate </hack>

But seriously, both Johannis and the PSD have dug their heels in and it looks like Romania is heading to another period of President-Parliament gridlock. Still, it's what they voted for.

As to the cleanliness of Romanian politicians - I certainly can not name any "clean" Romanian politician, but there are degrees of corruption and it's wrong to say they're all the same, IMO.

[Mike88]

What?? The guy wins a huge majority and isn't certain he will not become PM?? That's ridiculous!

PS: I'm not really informed about Romania politics but i don't think there's a "clean" politician in Romania. Just saying.

<hack> 83-85% of all eligible voters did not vote for the PSD -> Dragnea has no mandate </hack>

But seriously, both Johannis and the PSD have dug their heels in and it looks like Romania is heading to another period of President-Parliament gridlock. Still, it's what they voted for.

As to the cleanliness of Romanian politicians - I certainly can not name any "clean" Romanian politician, but there are degrees of corruption and it's wrong to say they're all the same, IMO.

Didn't realised turnout was that low! One question, who was more executive powers in Romania, the President or the PM? In the EU councils i usually see the President.

[Beagle]

Didn't realised turnout was that low! One question, who was more executive powers in Romania, the President or the PM? In the EU councils i usually see the President.

AFAIK, the President has a fair bit of power in appointments and in foreign affairs, but the executive power lies with the PM. But if anybody is more knowledgeable, feel free to correct me. Currently Gorghiu (the PNL leader) is under pressure to step down tonight, and even Basescu is saying that the results are clear and the PSD-ALDE are the winners, so it's not like the politicians are seeing something different from what the exit polls say.

[Beagle]

The electoral commission has been releasing results steadily every 15 mins... in csv form. Since no Romanian media that I am aware of is compiling these, I have no idea what the results show, but if someone is eager enough, they can delve in - even going precinct by precinct if they so wish.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

The electoral commission has been releasing results steadily every 15 mins... in csv form. Since no Romanian media that I am aware of is compiling these, I have no idea what the results show, but if someone is eager enough, they can delve in - even going precinct by precinct if they so wish.

I am too lazy for that.

[Beagle]

Yay, ProTV are compiling and seem to be updating reasonably fast.

Results with 42% in:

PSD : 46.8%
PNL : 20.5%
UDMR 8%
USR : 6.4%
ALDE : 5.3%
PMP : 4.7%

Quite a difference for USR/UDMR, but it seems to me that it's simply the more rural / Hungarian areas reporting first. And it appears quite likely the PMP will be below the 5% threshold in Romania itself, but will manage to get in on the strength of votes from abroad - mostly from Moldova.

[Boston Bread]

This is the closest thing to a map that I could find at this hour:

Numbers seem to be turnout figures.
From: http://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/alegeri-parlamentare/rezultate-alegeri-parlamentare-2016-harta-pe-judete-infrangere-zdrobitoare-pentru-pnl-cum-s-a-votat-in-diaspora.html

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

94% of votes counted:

PSD: 45,8%
PNL: 20%
USR: 8,5%
UDMR: 6,3%
ALDE: 5,6%
PMP: 5,1%

[Beagle]

The abstention rate means that PSD are winning on the strength of 3.3 million votes - half a million less than Ponta got in the first round in the Presidential race 2 years ago. As a reminder, Johannis won the second round with 6.3 million to Ponta's 5.2. In the upcoming posturing over who gets to be PM, I expect Johannis to refer to these numbers a lot.

Turnout among the 18-30 year olds is really catastrophically low. I'm not comparing it to the presidentials, which had a different dynamic, but even in comparison to the 2012 election, it has dropped by almost half. Obviously the Romanian parties are not giving much reason to vote for them, but my impression is that they have become cleaner compared to 4 years ago. My only explanation is that in 2012 people just suspected the corruption of their ruling class, and now they see the evidence brought to light.

In any event, the PSD are winning places they have not won in 25 years, Iliescu's 2000 second round romp excluded. Due to the electoral system, they will also have a pretty strong majority on their own in the Senate (winning an absolute majority in 22 of the regions), but will require ALDE in the lower house. The early talks seem to suggest they are looking to bring the UDMR in the coalition as well, probably to give even more legitimacy to Dragnea's claim to become PM.

[Crumpets]

Is there good enough polling to know who 18-34 year olds generally support?

[Beagle]

Is there good enough polling to know who 18-34 year olds generally support?

I guess 'good enough' makes it difficult to respond. For the last few elections only ISOR have released breakdowns of their exit polls by age/qualification. According to them, the parliamentary election saw a marked departure from the usual dominance of the PNL among younger voters. But as recently as the locals earlier this year, the winning PSD candidate in Bucharest was running a distant third with 18-34 year olds, who were the strongest supporters of the USR.

[Crumpets]

Is there good enough polling to know who 18-34 year olds generally support?

I guess 'good enough' makes it difficult to respond. For the last few elections only ISOR have released breakdowns of their exit polls by age/qualification. According to them, the parliamentary election saw a marked departure from the usual dominance of the PNL among younger voters. But as recently as the locals earlier this year, the winning PSD candidate in Bucharest was running a distant third with 18-34 year olds, who were the strongest supporters of the USR.

Interesting to see how the left-right (if you can even call it that in Romania) young-old divide seems quite different than in the rest of Europe. It makes sense, though, since it's not like the PSD really pushes "young people" issues like a lot of other social democratic parties.

[Intell]

Is there good enough polling to know who 18-34 year olds generally support?

I guess 'good enough' makes it difficult to respond. For the last few elections only ISOR have released breakdowns of their exit polls by age/qualification. According to them, the parliamentary election saw a marked departure from the usual dominance of the PNL among younger voters. But as recently as the locals earlier this year, the winning PSD candidate in Bucharest was running a distant third with 18-34 year olds, who were the strongest supporters of the USR.

Interesting to see how the left-right (if you can even call it that in Romania) young-old divide seems quite different than in the rest of Europe. It makes sense, though, since it's not like the PSD really pushes "young people" issues like a lot of other social democratic parties.

This is the case in a lot of conturies. It depends on the demographics of such a society and contury, and what they grew up. Age, gender, race go with all of that.  Yes, PSD is more left-wing, to say otherwise is absurd.

[Intell]

Is there good enough polling to know who 18-34 year olds generally support?

I guess 'good enough' makes it difficult to respond. For the last few elections only ISOR have released breakdowns of their exit polls by age/qualification. According to them, the parliamentary election saw a marked departure from the usual dominance of the PNL among younger voters. But as recently as the locals earlier this year, the winning PSD candidate in Bucharest was running a distant third with 18-34 year olds, who were the strongest supporters of the USR.

Interesting to see how the left-right (if you can even call it that in Romania) young-old divide seems quite different than in the rest of Europe. It makes sense, though, since it's not like the PSD really pushes "young people" issues like a lot of other social democratic parties.

This is the case in a lot of conturies. It depends on the demographics of such a society and contury, and what they grew up. Age, gender, race go with all of that.  Yes, PSD is more left-wing, to say otherwise is absurd.

[Beagle]

This is the case in a lot of conturies. It depends on the demographics of such a society and contury, and what they grew up. Age, gender, race go with all of that.  Yes, PSD is more left-wing, to say otherwise is absurd.

The PSD is most definitely left-wing - but not 'progressive' in any sense of the term as it used these days.

[peterthlee]

Will Iohannis even survive in 2019?
The PSD wiped out every county except a few, like Iohannis' home county of Sibiu (also a PNL stronghold) and Harghita (a diehard tory bastion).

[Famous Mortimer]

Most former Communist countries have an young vs old/urban v rural dynamic that seems backwards to people from the United States and Western Europe.

Cosmopolitan people are right-wing (but socially liberal and libertarian).

Rural people are economically socialist (but very socially reactionary).

[HenryVIII]

It would be interesting to see what the Romanian government deals to instil hope in its people.

[Diouf]

The PSD has found their PM. The 52-year economist and Tatar Muslim Sevil Shhaideh. Has there ever been a female Muslim head of government in the EU? Or any Muslim for that matter?

She has been director of the Constanta County Council for almost 30 years (1993-2012), and from 2007-12, she was also a part of the leadership of the National Union of County Councils. In 2012, she became a State Secretary for Regional Development under Liviu Dragnea. When Dragnea was convicted for orchestrating electoral fraud during the 2012 presidential impeachment referendum, she took over as Minister of Regional Development. However, a half year later in late 2015, the whole Ponta cabinet fell, so her first stint as a minister was rather short. Her close connection to Dragnea suggests that he might be using the "Kaczynski model", now that he cannot be PM himself.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-proposes-woman-prime-minister/

[Crumpets]

The PSD has found their PM. The 52-year economist and Tatar Muslim Sevil Shhaideh. Has there ever been a female Muslim head of government in the EU? Or any Muslim for that matter?

She has been director of the Constanta County Council for almost 30 years (1993-2012), and from 2007-12, she was also a part of the leadership of the National Union of County Councils. In 2012, she became a State Secretary for Regional Development under Liviu Dragnea. When Dragnea was convicted for orchestrating electoral fraud during the 2012 presidential impeachment referendum, she took over as Minister of Regional Development. However, a half year later in late 2015, the whole Ponta cabinet fell, so her first stint as a minister was rather short. Her close connection to Dragnea suggests that he might be using the "Kaczynski model", now that he cannot be PM himself.

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http://www.romaniajournal.ro/psd-proposes-woman-prime-minister/

Did she work under that one long-time mayor of Constanta who was super weird?