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Author Topic: PPP (For National Employment Law Project) - MO blunt +4  (Read 1039 times)
swf541
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« on: September 01, 2016, 09:32:23 am »

Blunt 47
Kander 43

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2016/09/primary-season-recap-216139
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heatcharger
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« Reply #1 on: September 01, 2016, 09:50:45 am »

Obviously this poll was conducted for an employment advocacy group, but the fact that Kander jumps into a 4 point lead after hearing about their minimum wage stances is quite encouraging. I'd say this race is more winnable than AZ and OH.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #2 on: September 01, 2016, 09:56:10 am »

Quote
In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
 12% Someone else/Not sure

Romney won MO by 10.
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swf541
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« Reply #3 on: September 01, 2016, 09:59:36 am »

Quote
In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
 12% Someone else/Not sure

Romney won MO by 10.

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate
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heatcharger
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« Reply #4 on: September 01, 2016, 10:00:05 am »

Quote
In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
 12% Someone else/Not sure

Romney won MO by 10.

Irrelevant, and you know that. Weighting by previous vote has always been a dubious practice.
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IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL
IndyRep
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« Reply #5 on: September 01, 2016, 10:08:47 am »

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Yeah, but still seems a bit off. I'd say Blunt is up 6 or 7 now.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #6 on: September 01, 2016, 10:10:26 am »

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Yeah, but still seems a bit off. I'd say Blunt is up 6 or 7 now.
Why?
He's not particularly well-liked, a 4 points lead seems reasonable for me.
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swf541
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« Reply #7 on: September 01, 2016, 10:35:34 am »

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Yeah, but still seems a bit off. I'd say Blunt is up 6 or 7 now.

3-5 range would seem to match this and other polling data,
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Heisenberg
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« Reply #8 on: September 01, 2016, 10:37:36 am »

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Yeah, but still seems a bit off. I'd say Blunt is up 6 or 7 now.
Why?
He's not particularly well-liked, a 4 points lead seems reasonable for me.
Romney voters appear a bit undersampled.
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heatcharger
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« Reply #9 on: September 01, 2016, 10:41:19 am »

Romney voters appear a bit undersampled.

Among people who said "someone else/don't remember":
Trump 54%, Clinton 13%

Hmm, I wonder why... oh that's right:

People hate admitting they voted for the losing candidate.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #10 on: September 01, 2016, 01:03:12 pm »

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Yeah, but still seems a bit off. I'd say Blunt is up 6 or 7 now.
Why?
He's not particularly well-liked, a 4 points lead seems reasonable for me.
Romney voters appear a bit undersampled.
Or th y are saying they either don't remember/Obama.  People always "forget" these things.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: September 01, 2016, 11:12:10 pm »

Romney voters appear a bit undersampled.

Among people who said "someone else/don't remember":
Trump 54%, Clinton 13%

Hmm, I wonder why... oh that's right:

People hate admitting they voted for the losing candidate.

Yeah, this is why polls that weight by the 2012 result (like LA Times) are pure garbage. Putting aside the fact that the electorate will definitely change in 4 years, a lot of "Obama voters" will actually be Romney voters.
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ProgressiveCanadian
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« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2016, 05:07:39 am »

Yea this is the race democrats should be spending their time and money on not Ohio, that race is pretty much hopeless.
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darthebearnc
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« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2016, 04:04:12 pm »

Quote
In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
 12% Someone else/Not sure

Romney won MO by 10.

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Not that many people.
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Southern Speaker & Acting Southern Gov Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #14 on: September 03, 2016, 04:11:18 pm »

Quote
In the 2012 election for President, did you vote for Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?

43% Barack Obama
45% Mitt Romney
 12% Someone else/Not sure

Romney won MO by 10.

People hate admitting they voted for the losing canidate

Not that many people.
Sometimes some people hate doing the opposite. See: Bush voters, post-2004.
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