PPP (For National Employment Law Project) - NH Hassan +2

[swf541]

Hassan 47
Ayotte 45

http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-score/2016/09/primary-season-recap-216139

[MT Treasurer]

Fool's gold for Republicans.

[Heisenberg]

Fool's gold for Republicans.

I bet nearly all the undecideds are angry women who break hard for Hassan. I suspect that this poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here. Unfortunately, the NRSC won't wake up and realize that the state of East Vermont is gone, and Safe D.

[MT Treasurer]

Fool's gold for Republicans.

I bet nearly all the undecideds are angry women who break hard for Hassan. I suspect that this poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here. Unfortunately, the NRSC won't wake up and realize that the state of East Vermont is gone, and Safe D.

Totally agreed. But everyone will act as if this (and the presidential race in NH) is a pure Tossup. Sad!

[Heisenberg]

Fool's gold for Republicans.

I bet nearly all the undecideds are angry women who break hard for Hassan. I suspect that this poll was done in hopes of tricking Republicans into spending here. Unfortunately, the NRSC won't wake up and realize that the state of East Vermont is gone, and Safe D.

Totally agreed. But everyone will act as if this (and the presidential race in NH) is a pure Tossup. Sad!

What's even sadder is that in 2020, it will likely continue to be the case, and pundits will just say "Trump was a terrible fit for New Hampshire, blah blah blah, it is a very important swing state," and nothing will change. If anything, it will be more Democratic in four years,

[Xing]

So...

NH: D+2 = Safe D, nothing to see here.
AZ: R+4 or less = Safe R, nothing to see here. AZ polls should never be trusted.
NV: D+2 = Toss-Up! Totally winnable for Republicans! NV polls should totally be trusted!
WI: D+7 (or more) = Toss-Up maybe Tilt D at the most! Republicans can totally win here!

Got it.

[Xing]

So...

NH: D+2 = Safe D, nothing to see here.
AZ: R+4 or less = Safe R, nothing to see here. AZ polls should never be trusted.
NV: D+2 = Toss-Up! Totally winnable for Republicans! NV polls should totally be trusted!
WI: D+7 (or more) = Toss-Up maybe Tilt D at the most! Republicans can totally win here!

Got it.

NHNV is a deep blue state, HassanMasto is deeply popular and NHNV polls always underestimate Democratic strength in the state. AZ, NV, and WI can be competitive under the right circumstances (although the last two areWI is not easy for the GOP to win in presidential yearsnon-wave years).

The "NHNV is a swing state crowd" will be in for a rude awakening on election day.

I generally agree, but I fixed a few things .

[Xing]

I generally agree, but I fixed a few things .

We'll have to see who gets it right on election day.

I'm not arguing that Hillary and Hassan won't win NH. But if Ayotte is doomed, so are Heck, Johnson, and Kirk.

[Xing]

I'm not arguing that Hillary and Hassan won't win NH. But if Ayotte is doomed, so are Heck, Johnson, and Kirk.

I know. How will you react if Heck wins, though?

If Heck ekes out a win while Trump loses by a lot, I'll believe that Heck was a great candidate, and that the right kind of Republican can win Nevada. If the presidential race in Nevada is close (and it's not a Trump landslide), I'll accept that Nevada really is a swing state.

How will you react if Trump/Heck/Johnson all lose NV/WI by a lot?

[Heisenberg]

I generally agree, but I fixed a few things .

We'll have to see who gets it right on election day.

I'm not arguing that Hillary and Hassan won't win NH. But if Ayotte is doomed, so are Heck, Johnson, and Kirk.

How? New Hampshire IS NOT A SWING STATE. It is more Democratic leaning than Nevada and Wisconsin.

[heatcharger]

New Hampshire is more Democratic leaning than Nevada and Wisconsin.

Yeah, right: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2012

And don't tell me about how Shaheen and Hassan winning in 2014. By that logic, NH was to the right of Nevada and Wisconsin in 2012 because two years earlier, Ayotte crushed her Democratic opponent while Johnson won by 4 points and Reid survived against all odds. That would pain you too much to admit.

For the record, I don't think NH is a swing state this year, just like how Nevada and Wisconsin aren't either.

[Xing]

I generally agree, but I fixed a few things .

We'll have to see who gets it right on election day.

I'm not arguing that Hillary and Hassan won't win NH. But if Ayotte is doomed, so are Heck, Johnson, and Kirk.

How? New Hampshire IS NOT A SWING STATE. It is more Democratic leaning than Nevada and Wisconsin.

Really? The 2008/2012 results suggest differently. If NH isn't a swing state (in this election, it certainly doesn't look like one), then NV/WI definitely aren't.

[Heisenberg]

I generally agree, but I fixed a few things .

We'll have to see who gets it right on election day.

I'm not arguing that Hillary and Hassan won't win NH. But if Ayotte is doomed, so are Heck, Johnson, and Kirk.

How? New Hampshire IS NOT A SWING STATE. It is more Democratic leaning than Nevada and Wisconsin.

Really? The 2008/2012 results suggest differently. If NH isn't a swing state (in this election, it certainly doesn't look like one), then NV/WI definitely aren't.

Neither Nevada nor Wisconsin are sexist states full of angry women.

[Xing]

Neither Nevada nor Wisconsin are sexist states full of angry women.

No, but they are full of Latinos or educated progressives.

"Look at the 1996 results! If PA is not a swing state this year, WV isn't one either."  - Someone in 2000

"Look at the 2010 WI results, surely it will go red this time!" - Every Republican in 2012

"Look at the NV polls, how can you say Romney won't even come close to winning it!?" - Everyone in 2012