Mexican Elections 2017-18
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jaichind
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« Reply #150 on: June 05, 2017, 06:16:02 AM »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 84% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.62%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  28.09%
PRI rebel               12.44%
MORENA               12.15%
MC                         4.77%

Both PAN and PRI are slowly falling

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%
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jaichind
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« Reply #151 on: June 05, 2017, 06:30:24 AM »

The chatter in the FX market is that the reason why MXN is up so much is not just the PRI victory in Edomex but that PRI won big a significant margin (over 3%) which makes it likely for people to believe the MORENA narrative of fraud.  I guess the FX market is skeptical of PAN-PRD as an alternative establishment force to beat back ALMO and has put their money on PRI to stop ALMO in 2018.
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: June 05, 2017, 06:32:22 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 06:44:08 AM by jaichind »

Edomex (non-null vote)  96% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.78%
MORENA                     31.87%
PRD                            18.42%
PAN                            11.62%
PRI rebel                       2.20%
PT                                1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI continue to gain ground to close in on a 3% non-null vote share victory

2011 Edomex (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%
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jaichind
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« Reply #153 on: June 05, 2017, 06:34:28 AM »

Coahuila results (non-null) 83% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.65%
PAN-PES-UDC          37.48%
MORENA                  12.33%
PRI rebel                   7.66%
PRD                          1.68%
PT                            1.51%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PRI slowing expanding its lead

2011 Coahulia (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%
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jaichind
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« Reply #154 on: June 05, 2017, 06:43:40 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 06:57:00 AM by jaichind »

Veracruz results mostly done (212 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null and 99.7% of the vote counted

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       33.74%        113
PRI-PVEM      18.65%          35
PRI                 2.27%            3
PVEM              2.00%           4
MORENA       17.86%         18
PANAL            6.94%         18
MC                 7.07%           8
PT                  4.95%           5
PES                3.03%           5
Ind                3.39%            3

In 2016 Governor race it was

2016 Veracruz (non-null)

PAN-PRD                 35.46%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     31.22%
MORENA                 27.21%
PAN rebel                  2.07%
PT                            1.67%
MC                           1.24%
PES                          1.14%

If you take into account of the PAN rebel it seems PRI and PAN both lost ground to the smaller parties and independents, but MORENA lost the most ground.
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jaichind
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« Reply #155 on: June 05, 2017, 06:55:06 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 07:04:20 AM by jaichind »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 88% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.69%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.99%
PRI rebel               12.42%
MORENA               12.22%
MC                         4.75%

PAN's lead over PRI expanding slowly.  PRI-PVEM-PANAL plus PRI rebel would have beaten PAN-PRD-PT

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%
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jaichind
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« Reply #156 on: June 05, 2017, 07:16:32 AM »

Edomex (non-null vote)  97% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.81%
MORENA                     31.82%
PRD                            18.42%
PAN                            11.63%
PRI rebel                       2.19%
PT                                1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI continue to gain ground to close in on a 3% non-null vote share victory

2011 Edomex (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: June 05, 2017, 07:17:06 AM »

If Mexico’s Ruling Party Can’t Win Here, It’s Probably Doomed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-05-26/if-mexico-s-ruling-party-can-t-win-here-it-s-probably-doomed

Article points out that if MORENA wins Mexico State then AMLO will be the most likely winner of 2018 Prez election.  On the other hand it quotes a political analyst who predicts that PRI will win by 3%-4% due to the split of the anti-PRI vote between MORENA PRD and PAN.

This projection was very accurate. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #158 on: June 05, 2017, 07:48:28 AM »

Coahuila results (non-null) 85% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.79%
PAN-PES-UDC          37.41%
MORENA                  12.26%
PRI rebel                   7.59%
PRD                          1.76%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PRI slowing expanding its lead

2011 Coahulia (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: June 05, 2017, 07:49:25 AM »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 90% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.76%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.87%
PRI rebel               12.36%
MORENA               12.30%
MC                         4.75%

PAN's lead over PRI expanding slowly.   

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: June 05, 2017, 07:59:14 AM »

Overall PAN under-performed pre-election polls across the board.  PRI was in the same situation in 2016 but now it is PAN's turn.
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jaichind
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« Reply #161 on: June 05, 2017, 10:41:26 AM »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 92% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.74%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.84%
PRI rebel               12.39%
MORENA               12.31%
MC                         4.80%

Both PAN and PRI went down slightly

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%

Just for comparison to 2006 shows that the state has trended Right the last decade

2006 Prez elections (non-null)

PAN                       19.36%
PRD-MC-PT            42.86%
PRI-PVEM              34.54%
PSD                         2.17%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.08%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #162 on: June 05, 2017, 10:44:37 AM »

Edomex (non-null vote)  98% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.83%
MORENA                     31.83%
PRD                            18.38%
PAN                            11.66%
PRI rebel                       2.20%
PT                                1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI margin of victory at exactly 3% in non-null terms

2011 Edomex (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%

Just to compare to 2006 PAN lost ground since in 2006 PAN won a bunch of anti-AMLO PRI votes

PAN                       31.91%
PRD-MC-PT            44.48%
PRI-PVEM              18.61%
PSD                         3.89%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.11%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #163 on: June 05, 2017, 10:47:34 AM »

Coahuila results (non-null) 86% of the vote counted

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.90%
PAN-PES-UDC          37.38%
MORENA                  12.23%
PRI rebel                   7.56%
PRD                          1.76%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PRI slowing expanding its lead

2011 Coahulia (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%

Just to compare to 2006 PAN lost ground since in 2006 PAN won a bunch of anti-AMLO PRI votes

PAN                       44.21%
PRD-MC-PT            24.82%
PRI-PVEM              27.12%
PSD                         2.92%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.11%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #164 on: June 05, 2017, 10:50:08 AM »

Veracruz results done on PREP (212 out of 212 cities reporting) - vote share non-null and 99.7% of the vote counted

                 Vote share       Leading
PAN-PRD       33.74%        113
PRI-PVEM      18.65%          35
PRI                 2.27%            3
PVEM              2.00%           4
MORENA       17.86%         18
PANAL            6.94%         18
MC                 7.07%           8
PT                  4.95%           5
PES                3.03%           5
Ind                3.39%            3

In 2016 Governor race it was

2016 Veracruz (non-null)

PAN-PRD                 35.46%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     31.22%
MORENA                 27.21%
PAN rebel                  2.07%
PT                            1.67%
MC                           1.24%
PES                          1.14%

Just to compare to 2006 PAN lost ground but alliance with PRD on the ground means PAN-PRD should be able to replicate the 2006 PAN performance if not better.

PAN                       35.39%
PRD-MC-PT            36.44%
PRI-PVEM              25.58%
PSD                         1.97%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      0.62%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #165 on: June 05, 2017, 12:45:26 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 12:51:52 PM by jaichind »

Coahuila results 100% done on PREP. PRI wins

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     38.90%
PAN-PES-UDC          37.38%
MORENA                  12.23%
PRI rebel                   7.56%
PRD                          1.76%
PT                            1.52%  (dropped out to support MORENA)

PRI slowing expanding its lead

2011 Coahulia (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL     61.48%
PAN-UDC                36.00%
PT-MC                       1.57%
PRD                          0.95%

Just to compare to 2006 Prez elections

PAN                       44.21%
PRD-MC-PT            24.82%
PRI-PVEM              27.12%
PSD                         2.92%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.11%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #166 on: June 05, 2017, 12:53:33 PM »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 94% counted

PAN-PRD-PT          39.73%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.84%
PRI rebel               12.41%
MORENA               12.31%
MC                         4.80%
 

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%


2006 Prez elections (non-null)

PAN                       19.36%
PRD-MC-PT            42.86%
PRI-PVEM              34.54%
PSD                         2.17%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.08%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #167 on: June 05, 2017, 02:12:49 PM »

Edomex (non-null vote)  98% of the vote counted - it seems PREP is mostly done

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.83%
MORENA                     31.83%
PRD                            18.38%
PAN                            11.66%
PRI rebel                       2.20%
PT                                1.11% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

PRI margin of victory at exactly 3% in non-null terms

2011 Edomex (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%

Just to compare to 2006 PAN lost ground since in 2006 PAN won a bunch of anti-AMLO PRI votes

PAN                       31.91%
PRD-MC-PT            44.48%
PRI-PVEM              18.61%
PSD                         3.89%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.11%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #168 on: June 05, 2017, 02:14:35 PM »

Nayarit results (non-null) around 95% counted - I think PREP is done

PAN-PRD-PT          39.76%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.83%
PRI rebel               12.39%
MORENA               12.31%
MC                         4.80%
 

2011 Nayarit (non-null)

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.88%
PAN                       39.38%
PRD                       11.09%
PT                           2.12%


2006 Prez elections (non-null)

PAN                       19.36%
PRD-MC-PT            42.86%
PRI-PVEM              34.54%
PSD                         2.17%  (defunct center-left party)
PANAL                      1.08%  (PANAL de facto was backing PAN)
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jaichind
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« Reply #169 on: June 05, 2017, 02:24:10 PM »

Nayarit results for assembly seats has for FTPT seats PAN-PRD-PT 15 PRI 2 MORENA 1.

In terms of vote share it is in non-null terms

PAN-PRD-PT              35.17%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL       10.04%
PRI                           17.44%
PVEM                          1.97%
PANAL                         2.43%
MORENA                   13.87%
MC                             7.59%
PES                            1.65%
Ind.                            9.62%

Sum of all PRI-PVEM-PANAL vote share is 31.88%.  It seems the PRI rebel ran a bunch of his candidates and split the PRI vote in the district seat as well giving PAN-PRD-PT a landslide victory.  MORENA held on to its governor vote while MC and independents ate into the PAN-PRD-PT vote but hurting its landslide victory.  PRI-PVEM-PANAL failed to have an alliance for all seats (they only had an alliance in 5 out of 18 seats.)  Had they had an alliance in all 18 seats they could have won 2 more FPTP seats which means the PRI rebel independents running already doomed PRI-PVEM-PANAL to face a PAN-PRD-PT landslide.
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Mike88
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« Reply #170 on: June 05, 2017, 02:26:20 PM »

Fantastic coverage jaichind. Really awesome! I read in El Mundo that López Obrador is already complaining that the unofficial results shouldn't be trusted. Will MORENA contest the result in México State? Also, how could these results reflect in the 2018 general elections? I saw that PAN may nominate México's "Hillary Clinton", former first lady Margarita Zavala, and the López Obrador will run again and the race is close between both with the PRI way bellow. Will these state results help PRI?
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jaichind
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« Reply #171 on: June 05, 2017, 02:39:35 PM »
« Edited: June 05, 2017, 02:44:17 PM by jaichind »

Coahuila district FPTP seats came out to PAN-PES-UDC 9 seats PRI 7.  

In terms of vote share it was in non-null terms

PAN-PES-UDC-local allies       37.33%
PRI                                       35.39%
PVEM                                     2.55%
PANAL                                    2.28%
PRI local gov race allies           4.87%
MORENA                               11.10%
PRD                                        3.06%
PT                                          1.86%
PMC                                       1.22%
Ind.                                       0.33%
                      
It is clear what the PRI strategy was.  PRI decided not to have the massive alliance at the governor race at the district level hoping that PVEM PANAL and various minor parties can cut into the PAN-PES-UDC alliance votes giving the PRI candidate with the local connections the victory.  It did not work.  PAN-PES-UDC alliance vote share held up vs the governor vote (37.33% vs  37.38%) while PVEM PANAL and the various PRI local party allies merely cut into the PRI and PRI rebel governor vote.   So it really ended up being PRI vs PAN-PES-UDC-local allies  at the district level which ended up being 35.39% vs 37.33% which meant a 7 to 9 loss by PRI.  

Had the PRI-PVEM-PANAL-local allies alliance held up at the assembly level and no votes leaked it would have been PRI-PVEM-PANAL-local allies 11 seats to PAN-PES-UDC 5 seats.  In such a situation PRI-PVEM-PANAL-local allies  vote share would have been 45.09% versus 37.33% for PAN-PES-UDC-local allies.
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jaichind
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« Reply #172 on: June 05, 2017, 02:56:21 PM »

JPM analyst wrote a note for clients indicating the MXN surge is overdone.  The article indicates:

1) PRI was expected to win by a very large margin, so Morena’s narrow defeat validates its standing as a serious contender for the presidential election
2) "Despite winning the State of Mexico, the PRI’s presidential aspirations remain rather thin, and next year’s race remains between the PAN and Morena, even if one should not entirely rule out the PRI," 
3) Detrimental that Morena didn’t win Edomex because it means the party won’t have control of one of the most influential, resourceful states in Mexico
4) If Morena leader Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador challenges the election results, it could make him less popular among potential moderate voters as it would "add credence to those voices suggesting AMLO has little respect for institutions."
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jaichind
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« Reply #173 on: June 05, 2017, 04:19:03 PM »

Fantastic coverage jaichind. Really awesome! I read in El Mundo that López Obrador is already complaining that the unofficial results shouldn't be trusted. Will MORENA contest the result in México State? Also, how could these results reflect in the 2018 general elections? I saw that PAN may nominate México's "Hillary Clinton", former first lady Margarita Zavala, and the López Obrador will run again and the race is close between both with the PRI way bellow. Will these state results help PRI?

I do not know too much beyond what I read and plus some game theory logic.  

It seems that this round of elections means that PRI will not just fall apart before 2018 Prez elections.  By no means does it mean that is the favorite to win next year.  PRI's strongest candidate is Chong and most likely he will be the candidate.  PRI not falling apart means they can also rope in PVEM and PANAL.

AMLO is for sure running on the MORENA ticket.  Not winning Edomex has pluses and minus for AMLO.  Plus would be he does not have to deal with tradoffs related with running a large state and instead can run a completely anti-establishments campaign.  Minus would be not having the resources of Edomex to fund the MORENA campaign.  Question for him is what sort of allies can he pull in.  MC and PT have allied with AMLO two Prez elections in a row but might have qualms about being treated as a very junior partner my AMLO.  They can ally with PRD but that depends on who PRD allies with.  One way or anther one can view AMLO's ceiling at around 35-40.  

It seems PAN and PRD have in theory agreed to cooperate in next year Prez elections but it is not clear if they will come up with a common candidate.  PAN's front-runner is Margarita Zavala but it is not clear PAN can get PRD to accept her as her candidate.  If PAN and PRD form an alliance then most likely PT and MC will go with MORENA and PES will most likely go with PRI-PVEM-PANAL.   If not PT and MC might go with PRD.  All things equal ALMO would prefer PAN-PRD form an alliance.  If AMLO emerge as a strong candidate the anti-AMLO tactical voting will for sure take place so counting on PRD to split the anti-AMLO vote might not work out.  A PAN-PRD alliance would push all the Left vote to AMLO and ensure that all anti-establishment votes goes to AMLO with PRI-PVEM-PANAL and PAN-PRD splitting the establishment vote.  

So the election will either be

PAN-PES
PRD-MC-PT
PRI-PVEM-PANAL
MORENA

where PES could go with PRI and either MC or PT could go with MORENA

OR

PAN-PRD
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES
MORENA-MC-PT

In the first scenario something like

PAN-PES                       30
PRD-MC-PT                   10
PRI-PVEM-PANAL           30
MORENA                       30

could take place where we have a 3 way battle


In the second scenario I can easily see something like a three way tie

PAN-PRD                              33
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES           33
MORENA-MC-PT                    33

where all three blocs have a chance.

PRI has been polling badly recently and all this assumes that PRI has stabilized itself and can recovery some of its core base.  If PR continue to poll in the 20s or below then it could just be an AMLO vs PAN battle.
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jaichind
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« Reply #174 on: June 05, 2017, 07:42:20 PM »

Some Mexico election blog had this to show the vote share in Edomex over time.  The decline of PAN is quite startling.



Of course there are two problems with this chart.  First it flips PAN and PRD in 2011.  Second it is not in non-null form.  My version of the chart is in non-null terms which I start in 1987 which is before the decline of the PRI system.


1987
PRI                72.92%
PAN               11.27%
Left Parties    15.81%  (PRI Left puppet opposition parties)
 PMS-PRT         8.76%
 PPS                 2.51%
 PARM              1.53%
 PST                 1.50%
 PDM                1.50%


1993
PRI                62.62%
PAN               17.90%
Left Parties    15.84%  (These are PRD splinters and/or PRI Left puppet opposition parties)
 PRD                8.74%
 PCFRN            2.59%
 PPS                1.56%
 PARM             1.05%
 PDM               0.96%
 PT                  0.95%  (The weakest of these minor Leftist parties, PT is the one that survived)
PVEM              3.63%


1999
PRI                42.49%
PAN-PVEM     35.50%  (During this ear PVEM was allied with PAN)
PRD-PT          22.01%


2005
PRI-PVEM       49.27% (PRI candidate was Enrique Peña Nieto)
PAN-MC          25.62%
PRD-PT           25.12%


2011
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  65.09%
PRD-PT-MC           22.01%
PAN                     12.90%


And of course now 2017
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES  34.83%
MORENA                     31.83%
PRD                            18.38%
PAN                            11.66%
PRI rebel                       2.20%
PT                                1.11%

The collapse of PAN and the shift to the Left recently is quite dramatic.  2011 and 2017 performance of PAN is around 1987 performance levels when the election was rigged in favor of PRI and worse than 1993.  
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