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Author Topic: Mexican Elections 2017-18  (Read 17165 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #250 on: December 14, 2017, 06:25:56 am »
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It seems center-right PES will join MORENA-PT in an alliance to back AMLO.  Wow. What a surprise. 
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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jaichind
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« Reply #251 on: December 14, 2017, 06:44:34 pm »
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It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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« Reply #252 on: December 14, 2017, 10:31:49 pm »
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This is quite controversial within the Left. There were protests today during the registration of the alliance. Among the protestors there were prominent people: for instance, Elena Poniatowska. PES is very socially conservative.

There is a reason for AMLO to do this. He is, clearly, trying to poach the social conservatives from PAN (in case it remains the major competitor) or prevent them from moving to Meade (otherwise). Being able to do this with no sacrifice in power (as PES has no powerful politicians inside it) is an added bonus. Ideologically, for him it is no problem whatsoever. He is personally extremely socially conservative, and has only tolerated the socially liberal declarations of his supporters over the years with visible disgust. He might not be exactly a Santorum on those issues, but he is a conservative Catholic with very old-fashioned provincial mores.  He is a traditionalist national socialist - gay marriage or even abortion is not something he approves of in the least. At best, he may tolerate them if it is useful: he would be more comfortable banning both if he could without political damage, but he does not consider either important enough to take a stand on.

He has said this almost openly in the past, and he has been very happy to confirm this today. "There is no contradiction: I am .... a guadalupano". Interesting choice of a word, though - and a dangerous one. While traditionalist rural Catholics will love this, "guadalupano" is the dirtiest word out there for the evangelicals here: when they say that Catholics are "guadalupanos" they mean they are "not Christian". So, while this has a potential to help among the faithful community, his choice of words limits the target audience.

Still, it make a lot of sense, if he believes that the urban lefties are sufficiently attached to him to tolerate the betrayal, rationalizing it with something like "he has to appeal to the masses". If they do, they are idiots. But, of course, love has a tendency to cause blindness.
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This is the year which people will talk about
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The old see the young die.
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jaichind
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« Reply #253 on: December 14, 2017, 10:56:54 pm »
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Looks like ex-PAN President Fox who backed PRI's Nieto will now also back PRI's Meade.  Not sure if he is even in PAN if he is going to break with PAN for 2 election cycles in a row.  Back in 2012 you can argue that Fox backed PRI to stop AMLO.   Not sure what is his logic this time.  Any he says "I'm with Meade, not with the PRI" when asked about this.
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« Reply #254 on: December 14, 2017, 11:10:52 pm »
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Looks like ex-PAN President Fox who backed PRI's Nieto will now also back PRI's Meade.  Not sure if he is even in PAN if he is going to break with PAN for 2 election cycles in a row.  Back in 2012 you can argue that Fox backed PRI to stop AMLO.   Not sure what is his logic this time.  Any he says "I'm with Meade, not with the PRI" when asked about this.

Well, unlike EPN, Meade is not a proper PRIista. He was specifically nominated to appeal to Fox-type PANistas: moderately religious, with technocratic or pro-business preferences. Except for the party that nominated him and the manner of his nomination he is unobjectionable to Fox. In fact, supporting EPN was a much bigger step than supporting Meade, who could well have been a PANista candidate to begin with. And, obviously, Fox thinks Meade is a stronger candidate than anyone the PAN-PRD alliance will nominate. On that he is, probably, right. So, the "stop AMLO" logic still works.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
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« Reply #255 on: December 14, 2017, 11:54:49 pm »
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It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.

The 150-75-75 division does not, in fact, much matter. There are easily 150 districts where MORENA has exactly zero chance.  Even if they give some 10 non-impossible seats to PT, they can keep 140 for themselves. The PES seats will all be duds - the party leadership will get a seat or two high on the PR lists and will be happy about that.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #256 on: December 21, 2017, 10:57:42 am »
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-mexico-corruption/mexico-arrests-former-high-ranking-pri-official-in-corruption-probe-idUSKBN1EF0BL?feedType=RSS&feedName=worldNews

Another high ranking PRI official close to Nieto arrested for corruption.  AMLO's situation looking better and better.   MXN falls to the lowest level since early 2017 on AMLO concerns.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #257 on: December 21, 2017, 11:56:02 am »
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Parametria poll (post PES alliance with MORENA-PT)

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)      31
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    20
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)          19
Zavala (PAN rebel)              10
El Bronco                            2

Not clear why El Bronco is running.  There is no chance of victory and he is likely have to give up his governorship of NL just to run.



Party preference


Support of Prez by coalition showing Meade is running a bit ahead of PRI-PVEM-PANAL while Anaya is running behind PAN-PRD-MC
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
jaichind
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« Reply #258 on: January 01, 2018, 07:55:32 am »
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Defoe poll has AMLO in strong position but with lots of undecided



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)      30
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)          15
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)    15
Zavala (PAN rebel)                4
El Bronco                             2


Based only on party alliances it comes out to


MORENA-PT-PES                 29
PAN-PRD-MC                      21
PRI-PVEM-PANAL                19
Independent                        7

which seems to imply that both Anaya and Meade has some room to grow


Pure party support has PAN-PRD-MC in a strong position but some PAN vote will go to Zavala and some PRD support will go to AMLO


PAN           23
MORENA    22
PRI            16
PRD           11
PVEM          4
MC              3
PT               2
PANAL         1
PES             1

It is surprising how low PRI support it.  I think once the latest PRI corruption scandals blows over PRI support will rise again.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
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« Reply #259 on: January 07, 2018, 01:34:55 pm »
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Two articles of interest that I found:

One is a Politico profile piece on Obrador, and the other is on potential Russian hacking.

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BundouYMB
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« Reply #260 on: January 07, 2018, 01:42:34 pm »
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Comparing AMLO to Trump is the dumbest hot take I've ever seen.
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jaichind
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« Reply #261 on: January 07, 2018, 03:04:28 pm »
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http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/elecciones-2018/yerno-de-elba-esther-participa-en-morena-amlo


It seems that  Elba Esther's son-in-law is working for AMLO inside MORENA. Elba Esther Gordillo was the major PRI kingpin and head of the teachers union and is de factor founder of PANAL.  She historically has been very hostile to AMLO and worked overtime for PAN's Calderón to make sure that AMLO was defeated back in 2006.  She was arrested in 2013 for corruption.  This possible AMLO-Elba Esther Gordillo seems strange but plays into the narrative that AMLO might be learning the lessons of 2006.  This time around AMLO seems to want to get enough allies in the establishment camp to make sure that they do not all gang up on him toward the end of the election campaign like in 2006.  The alliance with Center-Right PES seems to be part of that.  Possible alliance with Elba Esther Gordillo seems to be the same.

It has been pointed out before but another funny part about this election is that both ex-PAN Presidents will not support the PAN-PRD candidate.  Fox will back Meade and Calderón obviously will back his wife Zavala.
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« Reply #262 on: January 09, 2018, 04:49:17 pm »
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Comparing AMLO to Trump is the dumbest hot take I've ever seen.

Yeah. If you for some reason wanted to compare it to someone, your best bet would be left wing populists. For those you could either compare him with European ones (Pablo Iglesias, Jean Luc Melenchon, Jeremy Corbyn) or Latin American ones (basically those from the "pink tide": Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Hugo Chávez/Nicolás Maduro, Evo Morales, Lula da Silva/Dilma Rouseff or Rafael Correa/Lenin Moreno)
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« Reply #263 on: January 09, 2018, 04:59:09 pm »
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Comparing AMLO to Trump is the dumbest hot take I've ever seen.

There's nothing the English-language commentariat loves more than decrying the evils of (gasp!) "populism"!

Yeah. If you for some reason wanted to compare it to someone, your best bet would be left wing populists. For those you could either compare him with European ones (Pablo Iglesias, Jean Luc Melenchon, Jeremy Corbyn) or Latin American ones (basically those from the "pink tide": Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Hugo Chávez/Nicolás Maduro, Evo Morales, Lula da Silva/Dilma Rouseff or Rafael Correa/Lenin Moreno)

Mélenchon is pretty clearly the most obvious comparison here, though I suspect that Mélenchon's eccentricities are largely played up by him for attention while AMLO really is as weird as he is seems.
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BundouYMB
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« Reply #264 on: January 09, 2018, 05:17:04 pm »
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I would argue there is no good comparison. AMLO is a unique candidate in a unique country. Pretty much all of these x = y comparisons between candidates in different countries (and indeed often from different sides of the globe) are awful pop journalism. The writer would rather make an easily digestible comparison to someone the reader is familiar with then write anything with any depth or complexity that would convey a good understanding of the situation.
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jaichind
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« Reply #265 on: Today at 06:15:09 am »
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(Bloomberg) --
Morena’s presidential hopeful Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador appoints former lawmaker Tatiana Clouthier, daughter of PAN’s 1988 presidential candidate Manuel Clouthier, as campaign manager, according to release on his official website.
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Chinese from Taiwan Province.  Now in New York City suburb of Scarsdale.  Ex-GOP now Libertarian.
The important thing is not how they vote but how we count.             - Stalin
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