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Author Topic: Mexican Elections 2017-18  (Read 45372 times)
Bojicat
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« Reply #275 on: January 29, 2018, 03:12:43 pm »

By the way, Jaichind. I borrowed your very good El Universal poll and used your smart comment about ZAVALA in Predict-It. I owe you a finders fee.
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jaichind
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« Reply #276 on: January 29, 2018, 04:32:08 pm »

By the way, Jaichind. I borrowed your very good El Universal poll and used your smart comment about ZAVALA in Predict-It. I owe you a finders fee.

Thanks.  To answer your question I rarely look at predictit.  I only look at it on the of the election just to get a feel how people that bet on it view the results as they come in.  I just happen to noticed a few weeks ago that predictit did not have Meade on the Mexico President section and just happen to look again today and noticed that they still did not put Meade on the list (and remove Chong.) 
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« Reply #277 on: January 29, 2018, 04:58:46 pm »

I am surprised at how badly Meade is doing and that we seem to be headed toward a re-run of 2006.  Meade is nowhere as unpopular as Madrazo was.  I have to imagine some sort Meade recovery as the headlines move away from all those PRI ex-governor scandals.

Also without knowing much I think if Anaya thinks he can dispose of Meade in the polls and then face off with AMLO and win just like Calderón did in 2006 he might be in for a surprise.  The issue here is that Anaya has shown himself to be a ruthless political operator.  The PRI machine in the North had no problems backing Calderón in 2006 to stop AMLO because they figured Calderón was not a threat to their existence whereas AMLO was.  They might view Aanya differently given his track record so far and it is far from assured that they will back Anaya to stop AMLO.  It might end up being the other way around especially when it seems AMLO learned his lesson from 2006 and this time around show he is willing to work with the establishment.  In other words Anaya seems to think he will get to run against Lula 1994 when he might be getting Lula 2002 as his main opponent.

It is not the PRI governor scandals. The biggest scandal is EPN himself, anyway, and that is not going away. But the main thing is that Meade has tried to square the impossible: he is far too PANista for PRI, but too PRIista for PAN-PRD. They tried to play it by the PRI handbook, with all the pageant of the dedazo, and it sounded fake for the PRIistas - and it poisoned it all for the PANistas. I daily exist in the circle, which should be the natural base of support for Meade - he is not catching on. People who should be jumping up and down, his friends and peers, increasingly speak out in favor of Anaya. There is still a bubble around the candidate himself, in the government, within which it seems they are doing well - but even that is getting thin.

Anaya is a ruthless operator, sure. He killed of, in sequence, calderonistas, Madero, Zavala,  PRDistas and is about to dispatch Meade. But he presents no obvious threat to the PRI machine in the North - it is not like he is taking it over. AMLO would, if given any chance: so, yes, he is dangerous. It is more that big chance of PRI machine will, in fact, be susceptible to move to AMLO side - capturing parts of the machine has been his way of operating since he split from the PRI all those decades ago. AMLO is a "real" PRIista - he knows how talk that language. Anaya does not (nor does Meade).

The mistake people are making is identifying PRIista machine with the technocrats - the two have very little in common. On occasion they are allies. But the real PRI machine has a lot more in common (both ideologically and in their approach to politics) with AMLO than with either PAN or to the technocrats. PRI is in its origin, like Morena, a national socialist party. And those national socialist views are still remarkably strong among the party operators. This is precisely why AMLO is much more dangerous for PRI than Anaya could ever be.
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« Reply #278 on: January 29, 2018, 05:00:38 pm »


I'll tell all readers now, AMLO will NOT be President of Mexico.

From your lips to His ears.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #279 on: January 29, 2018, 06:15:41 pm »

Interesting.  I know you made the same points before but it is useful to repeat them in this context.
 Thanks for your insight, ag.
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jaichind
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« Reply #280 on: January 29, 2018, 06:27:06 pm »

Massive Caller did a poll for the Senate race for 2018



It came up with

                                2 seats for           1 seat for                     
                             first place state     second place state         PR        Total
PAN-PRD-MC               34                          8                           14         56
MORENA-PT-PES          26                        13                           13         52
PRI-PVEM-PANAL           4                        11                            5          20

Which means PAN-PRD-MC will come in first in 17 states, MORENA-PT-PES in 13 states and PRI-PVEM-PANAL 2. 

These results are a complete disaster for PRI.  Even in the 2006 PRI meltdown PRI-PVEM managed 36 seats since it was Madrazo that saw his vote collapse while the fall in the PRI party vote dipped but by nowhere as much.  This time around it seems more about the collapse of the PRI brand.   

The PR vote is telling.  In 2006 it was PAN 11 PRI-PVEM 10 PRD-PT-MC 10 PANAL 1.  For PRI-PVEM-PANAL to be reduced to 5 seats in PR seems to imply the vote shares for the 3 blocs will be something like PAN-PRD-MC 37%-38% MORENA-PT-PES 37%-38% PRI-PVEM-PANAL 21%-22% which means PRI-PVEM-PANAL would be reduced to Madrazo 2006 levels of support if this poll is accurate.  How can the great PRI machine be reduced to this?
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« Reply #281 on: January 29, 2018, 06:37:47 pm »

I am surprised at how badly Meade is doing and that we seem to be headed toward a re-run of 2006.  Meade is nowhere as unpopular as Madrazo was.  I have to imagine some sort Meade recovery as the headlines move away from all those PRI ex-governor scandals.

Also without knowing much I think if Anaya thinks he can dispose of Meade in the polls and then face off with AMLO and win just like Calderón did in 2006 he might be in for a surprise.  The issue here is that Anaya has shown himself to be a ruthless political operator.  The PRI machine in the North had no problems backing Calderón in 2006 to stop AMLO because they figured Calderón was not a threat to their existence whereas AMLO was.  They might view Aanya differently given his track record so far and it is far from assured that they will back Anaya to stop AMLO.  It might end up being the other way around especially when it seems AMLO learned his lesson from 2006 and this time around show he is willing to work with the establishment.  In other words Anaya seems to think he will get to run against Lula 1994 when he might be getting Lula 2002 as his main opponent.

It is not the PRI governor scandals. The biggest scandal is EPN himself, anyway, and that is not going away. But the main thing is that Meade has tried to square the impossible: he is far too PANista for PRI, but too PRIista for PAN-PRD. They tried to play it by the PRI handbook, with all the pageant of the dedazo, and it sounded fake for the PRIistas - and it poisoned it all for the PANistas. I daily exist in the circle, which should be the natural base of support for Meade - he is not catching on. People who should be jumping up and down, his friends and peers, increasingly speak out in favor of Anaya. There is still a bubble around the candidate himself, in the government, within which it seems they are doing well - but even that is getting thin.

Anaya is a ruthless operator, sure. He killed of, in sequence, calderonistas, Madero, Zavala,  PRDistas and is about to dispatch Meade. But he presents no obvious threat to the PRI machine in the North - it is not like he is taking it over. AMLO would, if given any chance: so, yes, he is dangerous. It is more that big chance of PRI machine will, in fact, be susceptible to move to AMLO side - capturing parts of the machine has been his way of operating since he split from the PRI all those decades ago. AMLO is a "real" PRIista - he knows how talk that language. Anaya does not (nor does Meade).

The mistake people are making is identifying PRIista machine with the technocrats - the two have very little in common. On occasion they are allies. But the real PRI machine has a lot more in common (both ideologically and in their approach to politics) with AMLO than with either PAN or to the technocrats. PRI is in its origin, like Morena, a national socialist party. And those national socialist views are still remarkably strong among the party operators. This is precisely why AMLO is much more dangerous for PRI than Anaya could ever be.

Absolutely good points, AG.

And the symbol of the 'dedazo' is just killing the PRI. It smells like authoritarian, back-door, oligarchic, anti-democratic scheming to the public (which, by the way, it really is).

I would somewhat differ on your characterization of Anaya being a 'ruthless operator'. Sure, he's a clever cookie, but at 39 years old, he's still comparatively naive (at least compared to, say, AMLO). He's a politico who scraped up the internal party walls with his bare hands and wits. He still needs to cut more of his (still rather young) chops before we dare dub him ready to join Machiavelli's table.
 
He'll need to hacer sus pinitos as is said in Spanish, but I'm predicting that his personality, his lack of fire-breathing, is what will endear him to Mexico.
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« Reply #282 on: January 29, 2018, 10:39:49 pm »

I doubt PRI would perform that badly. They do have some local machines that are in good form. Even if they are indifferent on Meade, they will work hard for their guys. PAN is known to be relatively bad at machine politics, so at least some of the Senate PRIistas should make it in the first spot. At the very least I would expect EdoMex, Hidalgo, Sinaloa, Durango, Coahuila, Sonora, Campeche, Chiapas (with the Verde) and, possibly, a couple of others. If it performs as bad as this suggest, it would still be a shock.

Also, if it is such a complete collapse on the Senatorial level, Meade will be roasted alive. This, basically, means PRI machines defecting en masse - and, I am afraid, they would be defecting to MORENA.
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This is the year which people will talk about
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The old see the young die.
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« Reply #283 on: January 29, 2018, 10:45:48 pm »

Anaya is, obviously, not the guy who would kidnap and shoot your grandma to get a nomination. But he has proved to be surprisingly good at dispatching those in his way, irrespective of previous alliances.  Clearly, he has to be taken seriously. Alas, he still has very little charisma. He has not, really, endeared himself to anybody I know - but he does not cause indidgestion in most, which might not be a bad position to be in. And he is consciously running to the left, not to the right - which is the way to do it (frankly, I had hoped they would find a good PRDista to take on AMLO - but, alas, they did not). Still, I have a hard time seeing how he defeats AMLO one-on-one. If he does, he is a true wunderkind of politics.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #284 on: January 30, 2018, 01:09:19 pm »

CEDE poll has Meade very much in the game



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       33
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     30
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           25
Zavala (PAN rebel)                8
El Bronco                              2


On the topic of tactical voting I think the  Consulta Mitofsky poll from a couple of weeks ago asked "who do you believe will win" has it a 3 way tie



Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)            25.6
AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       25.0
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     23.7
Zavala (PAN rebel)                 2.9
El Bronco                              1.3
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jaichind
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« Reply #285 on: January 30, 2018, 07:07:34 pm »

Yeah, Anaya is playing it well, and Meade has done everything wrong. Pretty much the only people who think he still has a chance work for the government at this point. Anaya is slowly but surely emerging as the anti-AMLO in this race. The problem for him is that at this point, among those who respond to this question, he is losing one-on-one to AMLO 38% to 46% - though this is much closer than either of them is demolishing Meade one-on-one. 

I assume this is the poll you are talking about.  Wow it looks pretty bad how much Meade is beaten by one-on-one.  I guess Meade has to be happy the Mexico election system is not like the French system.


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« Reply #286 on: January 30, 2018, 08:50:43 pm »

That CEDE poll looks very fishy to me. Look, I am a part of the "righ-wing neoliberal" crowd. I know very few people who are confident AMLO will not win, and I am not seeing much traction for Meade except among the people who are either very close to him personally, or close to the current administration. The conventional wisdom is AMLO is a favorite and Meade is not doing very good. This is the conventional widsom among those who hate AMLO and who are, on average, within one degree of separation from Meade in terms of personal relations. Of course, this circle is not very represenative of Mexico at large - but, if anything, you would expect most pro-Meade attitudes imaginable here. I have no clue who else would like Meade more. And, alas, daily I find myself among the more pro-Meade people in the conversation - and even I would, probably, vote for Anaya (though I do think that Meade would be a better president), and even I would consider AMLO the favorite at this point.
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #287 on: February 01, 2018, 08:03:11 am »

El Heraldo Survey which was done in Dec 2017



has

AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       25
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           20
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jaichind
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« Reply #288 on: February 02, 2018, 03:47:36 pm »

For the 2018 election INE also did redistricting of the 300 lower house district seats.  The breakdown are

Aguascalientes         3 ->  3
Baja California         8 ->  8
Baja California Sur   2 ->  2
Campeche               2 ->  2
Coahuila                  7 ->  7
Colima                    2  ->  2
Chiapas                12  -> 13 (a backward area gaining seats, I guess higher birthrate)
Chihuahua              9  ->  9
Mexico City           27  -> 24 (I am surprised that Mexico city has slower population growth)
Durango                4   ->  4
Guanajuato           14  -> 15
Guerrero                9  ->   9
Hidalgo                  7  ->   7
Jalisco                 19  ->  20
México                 40 ->  41
Michoacán           12  ->  12
Morelos                5  ->    5
Nayarit                 3  ->    3
Nuevo León         12  ->  12
Oaxaca               11   -> 10
Puebla                16  ->  15
Querétaro             4  ->    5
Quintana Roo        3   ->   4
San Luis Potosí     7   ->    7
Sinaloa                8   ->    7
Sonora                7   ->    7
Tabasco               6   ->    6
Tamaulipas          8    ->   9
Tlaxcala              3    ->   3
Veracruz           21    ->  20
Yucatán              5    ->   5
Zacatecas           4    ->   4
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jaichind
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« Reply #289 on: February 02, 2018, 06:06:52 pm »

It seems the MORENA PT PES alliance will divide up the 300 Lowe House seats MORENA 150 PT 745 PES 75.  It seems AMLO is prioritizing getting PT and PES to back him for Prez race than seats in the lower house.  MORENA strength is clearly greater than the sum of PT and PES.

The 150-75-75 division does not, in fact, much matter. There are easily 150 districts where MORENA has exactly zero chance.  Even if they give some 10 non-impossible seats to PT, they can keep 140 for themselves. The PES seats will all be duds - the party leadership will get a seat or two high on the PR lists and will be happy about that.

A glance at the MORENA-PT-PES agreement http://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/94367/CG2ex201712-22-rp-5-2-a1.pdf

seems to indcate that this was not the case.  It seems MORENA-PT-PES mostly divided up the seats on a 2-1-1 basis pro rated across the board. 

If one takes the 2015 MORENA vote share performance and look at large states where MORENA did well (Mexico City, Oaxaca, and Veracruz) it seems the breakdown are

Mexico City - MORENA 11, PT 7, PES 6
Oaxaca - MORENA 4, PT 3, PES 3
Veracruz - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6

If then we look at the state that MORENA did poorly in 2015 (Guanajuato, Jalisco, Michoacán, and Nuevo León) the breakdown are

Guanajuato - MORENA 10, PT 2, PES 3
Jalisco - MORENA 10, PT 4, PES 6
Michoacán - MORENA 6, PT 4, PES 2
Nuevo León - MORENA 3, PT 5, PES 4

So other than Nuevo León  there seems little correlation between strong MORENA states vs weak MORENA states.   In fact I am very surprised at the distribution in Mexico City where MORENA-PT-PES is poised to sweep the state and yet MORENA yield 13 out of 24 seats to PT-PES.  One argue that MORENA perhaps gave away seats within each of these states where MORENA are weaker in.  A superfical glance does not seem to indicate this and one can argue that Mexico City MORENA is strong across the board and yet gave away 13 out of 24 seats whereas in Guanajuato MORENA is weak across the board yet MORENA took on 10 out of 15 seats all of which seems unwinnable for MORENA-PT-PES.
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« Reply #290 on: February 02, 2018, 07:15:02 pm »

Yeah, actually, it is a bit surprising. Of course, within Mexico City the only hopeless district (15th, Benito Juarez) went to PES, but then the difficult Miguel Hidalgo district goes to Morena. I Guanajuato Morena did take the ony district where they stand any chance whatsoever (Valle de Santiago), but also a lot of hopeless ones. Morena also takes several Nezahualcoyotl districts - even though this is one of the last real pockets of PRD strength (ok, perhaps they are just trying to destroy PRD and think they can). PT, though, is stuck with the PRIista Atlacomulco and likely PANista Naucalpan. But nothing is that clear.

Of course, it remains to see who are the actual candidates. PES does not have many people to staff the lists. It could well be that they will simply take obradorista guys who would have otherwise run as Morena, and the only think PESista or PTista about the candidates would be the money that the vote for them will send.
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This is the year which people will talk about
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The earth no longer produces, it devours.
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« Reply #291 on: February 02, 2018, 07:21:18 pm »

Mexico City population has been stationary for a very long time now. No surprise there whatsoever.

Overall, good for PAN - much of the growth is concentrated in states they govern (Guanajuato, Queretaro, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas), or where they are relatively strong (Jalisco).
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
ag
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« Reply #292 on: February 02, 2018, 07:21:53 pm »

BTW, I have not been watching closely, but there have been tensions between PVEM and PRI, ostenstibly over Chiapas. Rats?
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This is the year which people will talk about
This is the year which people will be silent about.
The old see the young die.
The foolish see the wise die.

The earth no longer produces, it devours.
The sky hurls down no rain, only iron.

Bertolt Brecht
jaichind
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« Reply #293 on: February 02, 2018, 08:08:19 pm »

BTW, I have not been watching closely, but there have been tensions between PVEM and PRI, ostenstibly over Chiapas. Rats?

I do not know much but my understanding it is about the 2018 Chiapas governor race.  PRI insists that as per agreement the PRI-PVEM-PANAL governor candidate will be a PRI candidate.  A rebel faction within PVEM insist that PVEM should run its own candidate in a "friendly contest" with PRI.

Of course the PRI-PVEM-PANAL coalition has already be registered

"Todos por Chiapas"


which includes local dummy parties PCU(Partido Chiapas Unido) and PMC(Partido Mover a Chiapas) which I suspect are the creation of the PVEM governor to split the opposition vote.

Anyway I think PRI and PVEM will continue but them do more horse trading on who is the candidate.
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« Reply #294 on: February 02, 2018, 08:09:45 pm »

Mexico City population has been stationary for a very long time now. No surprise there whatsoever.

Overall, good for PAN - much of the growth is concentrated in states they govern (Guanajuato, Queretaro, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas), or where they are relatively strong (Jalisco).

I agree.  Overall the new seat distribution should benefit PAN while MORENA loses with Mexico City going down by 3 seats.
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« Reply #295 on: February 03, 2018, 07:15:23 am »

Looking at the PAN-PRD-MC seat sharing agreement shows that the distribution of seats are more along the lines of where the different parties are strong.

http://repositoriodocumental.ine.mx/xmlui/bitstream/handle/123456789/94343/CG2ex201712-22-rp-5.1-a1.pdf

In Chihuahua  where PAN is strong it is PAN 7, PRD 1, MC 1
In Baja California where PAN is strong it is PAN 6, PRD 1, MC 1
In Mexico where PRD is strong but with some pockets of PAN strength it is PRD 14, PRD 7, MC 3
In Guanajuato where it is the strongest PAN state in Mexico it is PAN 12, PRD 2, MC 1
In Guerrero where PRD is strong it is PAN 1, PRD 6, MC 2
In Jalisco where MC is strong it is PAN 4, PRD 2, MC 14 - PAN used to be strong here as well and I am surprised that PAN would pretty much yield this state to MC
In Oaxaca where PRD is strong it is PAN 3, PRD 6, MC 1
In Puebla where PAN is strong it is PAN 10, PRD 3, MC 2
In Tamaulipas where PAN is strong it is PAN 7, PRD 1, MC 1
In Veracruz where PAN has been getting stronger recently it is PAN 10, PRD 5, MC 5
In Mexico where PRD is a bit stronger than PAN it is PAN 15, PRD 19, MC 7
« Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 10:50:55 am by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #296 on: February 03, 2018, 08:46:36 am »

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/ex-mayor-ebrard-joins-amlo-campaign-team/

Looks like former head of Mexico City after AMLO Marcelo Ebrard who left PRD and joined up with MC a few years back has joined the AMLO campaign.
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« Reply #297 on: February 03, 2018, 11:37:54 pm »

https://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/ex-mayor-ebrard-joins-amlo-campaign-team/

Looks like former head of Mexico City after AMLO Marcelo Ebrard who left PRD and joined up with MC a few years back has joined the AMLO campaign.

Ebrard was a good (though somewhat corrupt) mayor, and he would have been president now had AMLO let him run in 2012. But he has been politically destroyed since. At this point he is just trying to attach himself somewhere, to may be try to reestablish himself. I doubt he has enough power left to affect anything. This, though, does show who he thinks the winner is likely to be.
« Last Edit: February 03, 2018, 11:39:32 pm by ag »Logged

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« Reply #298 on: February 06, 2018, 07:58:15 pm »

El Financiero poll



AMLO (MORENA-PT-PES)       38
Anaya (PAN-PRD-MC)           27
Meade (PRI-PVEM-PANAL)     22
Zavala (PAN rebel)                7
El Bronco                              3
Piter(PRD rebel)                    3

There seems to be talks of an all rebel alliance (Zavala, El Bronco, Piter) which is mostly floated by Piter to keep himself relevant.

Good news for Anaya is that he has, for now, eliminated Zavala as the anti-AMLO so he has to concentrate his fire on Meade and then once Meade is below 20 can then run himself as the anti-AMLO.  Not clear he will win even then but that is his path to victory.

All the main contenders are gaining in terms of name recognition


ALMO has the most positive net approval ratings


Meade's high negatives means his path to victory has to be a close 3 way race and with Zavala taking a chunk of the anti-PRI vote.
« Last Edit: February 06, 2018, 08:07:40 pm by jaichind »Logged

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« Reply #299 on: February 07, 2018, 07:36:45 am »

Same El Financiero poll has data on vote for Lower House and Senate by party where it is a lot closer



If you add up the votes by alliance you get

Lower House
MORENA-PT-PES      33
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     29
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Senate
MORENA-PT-PES      32
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     30
PAN-PRD-MC           29

Which comes out to a 3 way tie.  I guess a lot of marginal PRI and PRD voters are voting AMLO for Prez but voting with their party in the Congressional vote.
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