Mexican Elections 2017-18

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The National Indigenous Congress (CNI) has chosen activist and traditional medicine practitioner Marichuy Patricio Martínez as their candidate for the 2018 presidential election. http://www.sistemamichoacano.tv/noticias/22-nacional/18257-marichuy-patricio-la-candida-indigena-para-el-2018

My understanding is that this "Indian Governance Council" is just a front organization of the Zapatistas.  Of course because the council is not a registered political party, it may need signatures to get Patricio on the ballot.

Oh, it very much is the Zapatistas - I had actually heard quite a while back that they were planning to run an indigenous woman in 2018 as part of their transition toward politics; this must be the conclusion of that.

[jaichind]

El Universal has a narrow PRI lead in Coahuila


 
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     35.5
PAN                         31.4
MORENA                  17.9
PRI rebel                   8.8
PT                             3.2
PRD                          2.2

If 2016 polls and then election results from Northern Mexico like Durango, Chihuahua, and Tamaulipas were the set the standard then PAN should get a narrow win with polls like this as the anti-PRI vote concentrate around PAN.

[jaichind]

Looks like final polls are coming out from various media outlets

Mexico State for Reforma has PAN falling like other polls



MORENA              31.9 (+2.9)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.7 (+2.7)
PRD                     16.8 (+2.8   )
PAN                     14.1 (-7.9)
PRI rebel                5.8 (+3.8   )
PT                          0.6 (-2.4)   (has dropped out of the race backing MORENA)

[jaichind]

Reforma Coahuila



PAN                         37  (+1)
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     33   (-3)
MORENA                  18  (+2)
PRI rebel                   7   (+2)
PRD                          2   (-2)
PT                            2

[jaichind]

Nayarit still PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          44
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27
MORENA               12
PRI rebel                 9
MC                         4

[jaichind]

 BGC-Excélsior poll for Coahuila has it neck-to-neck



PAN                         36
PRI-PVEM-PANAL     35   
MORENA                  18 
PRI rebel                   7   
PT                             2
PRD                          1.5 

[jaichind]

Another Nayarit still PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          43.0
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   21.1
MORENA               14.5
PRI rebel                 9.7
 

[jaichind]

Given how 2016 tactical voting went PRI is facing a wipe-out this Sunday losing to PAN-PRD by a landslide in Nayarit while narrowly losing Edomex (Mexico State) to MORENA and narrowly losing to PAN in Coahuila.

In theory this should be good news for PAN  since it means that PRI will most likely collapse in 2018 and PAN can clean up the establishment vote from PRI beating out AMLO just like in 2006.  A viable PRI will split the establishment vote with PAN opening the way for ALMO to win.

[jaichind]

A Mexico State poll that has PRI ahead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL  33.8
MORENA              29.3
PRD                     17.4
PAN                     14.7
PRI rebel                2.9
PT                          1.9 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

BGC-Excélsior poll for Mexico State has small MORENA lead



MORENA              28
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27
PRD                     23
PAN                     19
PRI rebel                2
PT                          1 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Comparison of Edomex (Mexico state) polls



What is new on this list is El Universal which has PRI ahead

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  33.8
MORENA              29.3
PRD                     17.4
PAN                     14.7

and Promedio which also has a narrow PRI lead
 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.5
MORENA              29.7
PRD                     19.1
PAN                     15.9

All of them seems to point to PAN being finished and given the pattern of tactical voting and anti-PRI sentiment (large majorities in many polls said they will never vote PRI) that MORENA is more likely to win on anti-PRI tactical voting.  Ideally for MORENA you want PAN distant third and PRD distant forth.  PAN voters might tactically vote PRI to defeat MORENA while PRD tactical will for sure back MORENA.  PRD having a chance here is holding back a bit the PRD anti-PRI tactical vote.

[jaichind]

SDP poll in Nayarit has PAN-PRD way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          38.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   18.5
MORENA               10.4
PRI rebel               10.2
MC                         6.8

[Zanas]

and Promedio which also has a narrow PRI lead
 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.5
MORENA              29.7
PRD                     19.1
PAN                     15.9

Promedio just means the arithmetical mean of the three polls on the left.

[jaichind]

and Promedio which also has a narrow PRI lead
 

PRI-PVEM-PANAL  30.5
MORENA              29.7
PRD                     19.1
PAN                     15.9

Promedio just means the arithmetical mean of the three polls on the left.

Oops.  Thanks for pointing it out.

[jaichind]

Final Mitofsky poll for Edomex which unlike the other polls still has PAN still in the running



MORENA              25.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  22.2
PAN                     20.8
PRD                     13.6
PRI rebel                3.7
PT                         1.2 (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Election is today.  In theory polls close 6pm which is 7pm EST.  Not sure if there will be any exit polls.  Mostly like there will be at least for Edomex (State of Mexico).

[jaichind]

Financiero exit poll for Mexico State is too close to call.  I assume between PRI and MORENA.

[jaichind]

PAN declares victory in both  Coahuila and Nayarit which it claims sets it up for victory in 2018 Prez elections.

[jaichind]

I found PREP for 

Coahuila   http://prep-coahuila-2017.proceso.com.mx/
Nayarit     http://www.ine.mx/prep-nayarit/

I think Edomex is http://148.215.1.73/rptDistrital.html  but not sure that is the official one.

[jaichind]

First wave results for Mexico State  (non-null results)

MORENA              36.99%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  36.08%
PRD                     17.73%
PAN                       7.21%
PRI rebel                1.43%
PT                         0.56% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

If this is indicative of the results then there was a PAN collapse just like the polls picked up and significant tactical voting for the two front runners.  

[jaichind]

PRI claims that early results show a PRI win in Edomex (Mexico State)

[jaichind]

Edomex (non-null vote)

MORENA              37.75%
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  35.44%
PRD                     17.08%
PAN                       7.47%
PRI rebel                1.64%
PT                         0.63% (has dropped out in favor of MORENA)

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN completely tanked in Edomex.  And to think that the PAN candidate Vázquez Mota was its 2012 Presidential candidate.   It seems her political career is over. 

[jaichind]

Veracruz has municipal elections tonight as well.  It will be PRI-PVEM (in most cities but in some cities PRI and PVEM run separately) vs PAN-PRD vs MORENA.  It seems the PAN-PRD alliance that won here last year is holding up as they are running in alliance in all cities.   

[jaichind]

MORENA claims victory in Edomex with a predicted victory size of 5%-7%