Mexican Elections 2017-18

[Hash]

Brief overview of the results in the municipal elections in the various states -- municipal presidents (mayors) in the largest cities in each state.

Inc. def. means an incumbent mayor who lost reelection
Reelec. means an incumbent who won reelection

These results are based on the PREP, so some very close races may have changed so I can't vouch for the 100% accuracy of what I write below.

BCS

La Paz: Morena-PES gain from PAN
Los Cabos: Morena-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)

Campeche

Campeche: PAN-MC gain from PRI
Carmen: PAN-MC hold (may change; reelec.)

Chiapas

Tuxtla Gutierrez: Morena-PT-PES gain from PVEM
Tapachula: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Ocosingo: Morena-PT-PES gain from PVEM
San Cristóbal de las Casas: Morena-PT-PES gain from PVEM (inc. def.)
Comitán de Domínguez: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Chilón: Morena-PT-PES gain from PVEM
Las Margaritas: PRD gain from PVEM
Palenque: PVEM hold (reelec.)

Chihuahua

Cd. Juárez: Morena-PT-PES gain from Ind. (inc. def.)
Chihuahua: PAN-MC hold (reelec.)
Cuauhtémoc: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)

Coahuila

Saltillo: PRI-PVEM-Panal hold (reelec.)
Torreón: PAN-UDC-MC hold (reelec.)
Monclova: PAN-UDC-MC hold (reelec.)
Piedras Negras: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Acuña: UDC-PAN-MC hold (reelec.)

Colima

Manzanillo: Morena-PT-PES gain from PVEM
Colima: MC gain from PAN (inc. def.)
Villa de Álvarez: MC gain from PAN (inc. def.)

CDMX

Morena gain from PRD. I will go over the local mayoral (ex-delegates) results in the delegations later.

Guanajuato

León: PAN hold (reelec.)
Irapuato: PAN hold (reelec.)
Celaya: PAN hold
Salamanca: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)
Silao: PAN hold
Guanajuato: PAN gain from PRI
San Miguel de Allende: PAN hold

Guerrero

Acapulco: Morena-PES gain from PRD
Chilpancingo: PRD-PAN-MC gain from PRI
Iguala: Morena-PES gain from PRI

Jalisco

Guadalajara: MC hold
Zapopan: MC hold (reelec.)
Tlaquepaque: MC hold (reelec.)
Tlajomulco de Zúñiga: MC hold (reelec.)
Tonalá: MC gain from PRI
Puerto Vallarta: MC hold (reelec.)
El Salto: MC gain from PRI
Lagos de Moreno: MC gain from PRI

Michoacán

Morelia: Morena-PT gain from Ind. (inc. def.)
Uruapan: PRD hold (reelec.)
Zamora: Morena-PT gain from PRI
Lázaro Cárdenas: Morena-PT gain from PRI
Lázaro Cárdenas: Morena-PT gain from PRD (inc. def.)

Morelos

Cuernavaca: Morena-PT-PES gain from PSD (winner's candidacy was cancelled but name remained on the ballot)
Jiutepec: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRD (inc. def.)
Cuautla: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRD

Edomex

Ecatepec: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Nezahualcóyotl: PRD-PAN-MC hold
Naucalpan: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN
Toluca: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Tlalnepantla de Baz: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Chimalhuacán: PRI hold
Tultitlán: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Cuautitlán Izcalli: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Atizapán: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)
Ixtapaluca: PRI hold
Nicolás Romero: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Tecámac: Morena gain from PRI
Valle de Chalco Solidaridad: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRD
Chalco: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Coacalco: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
La Paz: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Huixquilucan: PAN hold (reelec.)
Texcoco: Morena-PT-PES hold
Metepec: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Chicoloapan: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Zinacantepec: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Zumpango: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
...
Atlacomulco: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI

Edomex is the most populated state in Mexico, and always a key political battleground. The results of the local elections were a colosal disaster for the PRI, PAN and PRD, particularly the PRI. Morena and friends won 48 municipalities against 28 for the PAN-PRD and just 23 for the PRI. In 2015, PRI-PVEM won 84 municipalities against 35 for the PAN and PRD (then separate) and 5 for Morena-PT-PES (then separate, with just one - Texcoco - for Morena).

This year, Morena swept nearly every major city, including the state capital (Toluca) and the vast majority of suburban municipalities in the Valley of Mexico. Morena gained Ecatepec, the stronghold of former PRI governor Eruviel Ávila and one of the largest cities in Mexico (pop. 1.6 million). In Metepec (near Toluca), Carolina Monroy del Mazo, the cousin of PRI governor Alfredo del Mazo and President Enrique Peña Nieto, was defeated by nearly 15 pts. by Morena. In Atlacomulco, the cradle of the PRI's (in)famous Grupo Atlacomulco - which, among other nice things, produced EPN - the PRI was defeated by Morena. The old 'blue corridor' is now mostly Morena, with the exception of Huixquilucan and Jilotzingo, but with Morena winning in Naucalpan (an historically panista municipality). The PRD held the traditional perredista stronghold of Neza, but with only a small margin over Morena (it also held Tultepec).

Nuevo León

Monterrey: PAN gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Guadalupe: PAN gain from PRI
Apodaca: PRI hold
San Nicolás de los Garza: PAN hold
General Escobedo: PRI hold (reelec.)
Santa Catarina: PAN hold (reelec.)
Juárez: PRI hold (reelec.)
García: Ind. hold
San Pedro Garza García: Ind. gain from PAN

In NL, the PAN defeated the incumbent PRI mayor of Monterrey Adrián de la Garza and gained Guadalupe. However, the PAN suffered a major defeat in San Pedro Garza García, where independent Miguel Treviño (El Bronco's former head of the executive office, who resigned in early 2016) ended nearly 30 years of panista rule; the defeated PAN candidate was Rebeca Clouthier, daughter of Manuel Clouthier 'Maquío' and sister of Tatiana Clouthier (now one of AMLO's top operators). Of the so-called 'Bronco candidatos' (El Bronco admin civil servants and officials who resigned to run), all those who ran for mayor were defeated except in El Bronco's native García, where he himself had been mayor.

Oaxaca

Oaxaca: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
San Juan Bautista Tuxtepec: Panal hold (reelec.)
Juchitán de Zaragoza: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRD
Salina Cruz: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)

Puebla

Puebla: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN
Tehuacán: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
San Martín Texmelucan: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN

Querétaro

Querétaro: PAN hold
San Juan del Río: PAN hold (reelec.)
Corregidora: PAN-PRD-MC hold

Quintana Roo

Benito Juárez (Cancún): Morena-PT gain from PVEM
Solidaridad (Playa del Carmen): Morena-PT gain from PAN-PRD (inc. def.)
Othón P. Blanco (Chetumal): Morena-PT gain from PAN-PRD
Cozumel: PRI gain from PAN-PRD (inc. def.)

San Luis Potosí

San Luis Potosí: PAN-MC gain from PRD
Soledad de Graciano Sánchez: PRD hold
Ciudad Valles: Ind. gain from PRI

Sinaloa

Culiacán: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Mazatlán: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Ahome (Los Mochis): Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Guasave: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)

Sonora

Hermosillo: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Cajeme (Cd. Obregón): Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Nogales: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)
San Luis Río Colorado: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN
Navojoa: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN
Guaymas: Morena-PT-PES gain from PAN (inc. def.)

Tabasco

Centro (Villahermosa): Morena-PT gain from PRD
Cárdenas: Morena-PT gain from PRD (inc. def.)
Comalcalco: Morena hold
Huimanguillo: Morena-PT gain from PRD (inc. def.)

Tamaulipas

Reynosa: PAN-PRD-MC hold (reelec.)
Matamoros: Morena-PT gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Nuevo Laredo: PAN-PRD-MC hold (reelec.)
Victoria: PAN-PRD-MC gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Tampico: PAN-PRD-MC gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Altamira: PAN-PRD-MC hold (reelec.)
Cd. Madero: Morena-PT gain from PAN (inc. def.)

Yucatán

Mérida: PAN-MC hold
Kanasín: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Valladolid: Morena-PT-PES hold
Tizimín: PRI-PVEM hold

Zacatecas

Fresnillo: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI
Guadalupe: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI (inc. def.)
Zacatecas: Morena-PT-PES gain from PRI

Brutal stuff for the PRI.

[BundouYMB]

Thank you for the information. I was interested in municipal results but unsure where to find them.

[jaichind]

Senate is almost done.  Not all 3 blocs have alliances in all states but to simply I group the results in blocs.  Both PES and PANAL did not get across 3% to get PR seats and both will be disbanded.

                                Vote share    District seats    PR seats     Total Seats
MORENA-PT-PES          45.56%              55               14               69
 MORENA                    39.14%              42               13               55
 PT                              3.98%                5                 1                 6
 PES                             2.43%               8                 0                 8 (party disbanded)
PAN-PRD-MC               28.74%              28              10                38
 PAN                           18.36%              17                6                23
 PRD                             5.50%               6                2                  8
 MC                              4.89%               5                2                  7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL          23.66%             13               8                 21
 PRI                             16.60%              7                6                13
 PVEM                           4.66%               5                2                 7
 PANAL                         2.41%               1                0                  1 (party disbanded)
IND                              2.04%

PES achieved a 8 out 8 hit rate for the district seats.  Of course now they will be disbanded.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is the proportional representation rule different between the House and the Senate? The House PR seat breakdown suggests that PES votes have been redistributed to MORENA (otherwise MORENA would have gotten 83 seats instead of 86). However, if that was the case in the Senate, MORENA would have received 14 seats instead of 13.

[jaichind]

Is the proportional representation rule different between the House and the Senate? The House PR seat breakdown suggests that PES votes have been redistributed to MORENA (otherwise MORENA would have gotten 83 seats instead of 86). However, if that was the case in the Senate, MORENA would have received 14 seats instead of 13.

I could have done the math wrong but both work the same.  For both PES and PANAL just does not get PR seats so their vote share does not "count."  For the House there is the 8% rule that caps PT's PR seat count.  So there we assign PT 2 PR seats and the remaining 198 gets allocated to the remaining parties according to their vote share.  Note this is a straight PR allocation and NOT D'Hondt.

[jaichind]

A chart of vote shares (non-null) in the lower House in the 2009-2018 period shows the decline of the PRI PAN and PRD
                   
                    2009       2012        2015          2018
MORENA                                     8.82%     38.82%
PT                3.87%     4.83%      2.99%      4.09%
PES                                            3.50%      2.51%
PAN            29.67%   27.28%    22.10%     18.69%
PRD            12.91%   19.35%    11.43%      5.49%
MC               2.61%     4.21%      6.41%      4.60%
PRI             39.12%   33.60%    30.69%     17.23%
PVEM           7.10%     6.43%      7.27%       4.99%
PANAL         3.62%      4.30%      3.92%      2.58%
PH                                             2.26%
PSD            1.09%               
IND                                            0.61%      1.00%

It seems having AMLO at the top of the ticket helped PRD in 2012 relative to a poor 2009 performance.  When MORENA first ran in 2015 it seems to have split the PRD vote share 50/50 between itself and PRD but then in 2018 surged to levels achieved by PRI in 2009.  MORENA's 2018 advantage is even greater since the anti-MORENA vote in 2018 is mostly evenly split between the PRI and PAN blocs.  In 2009 PRI had to contend with the anti-PRI vote more skewed toward PAN.

[jaichind]

In theory now there are independents running since 2015.  But in many cases there have been de facto parties created by blocs of independents that are associated with each other.  One can tell by looking at their election symbol.

In NL the various pro-El Bronco running in the Lower House have election symbols below which pretty much means there is a de facto El Bronco party
 








Also we have Senate independent candidates which are associated with House independent candidates.

In Jalisco  Pedro Kumamoto is running as an independent with the following symbol


In the House 3 pro-Kumamoto independents are running with the following symbols






In Sinaloa, PAN rebel Manuel Clouthier is running as an independent with the following symbol


In the House 2 pro-Clouthier independents are running with the following symbols



So the use of election symbols independents can now create de facto parties at least in terms of campaign image.

[jaichind]

Pauta Politica projection of seats

Senate
MORENA+  69
 MORENA   55
 PT              6
 PES            8

PAN+         37
 PAN          23
 PRD           7  ( I have it at 8  )
 MC             7

PRI+         22
 PRI          15  (I have it at 13)
 PVEM         6  (I have it at 7)
 PANAL        1


House
MORENA+ 307
 MORENA  190
 PT             61
 PES           56 (I have it at 55)

PAN+      131
 PAN         83
 PRD         21
 MC          27

PRI+         62
 PRI          44
 PVEM       16 (I have it at 17)
 PANAL       2

Not sure why we get different numbers.   I could be some of the alliance contracts changed since they were registered with INE.  But that does not explain why seat counts are different between blocs.  Will have to debug later.

[jaichind]

It seems AMLO's professed political philosophy should really be classified as classical Chinese Confucianism.  The 3 schools of classical Chinese political thoughts are

Legalism: The state can be effective if the proper laws and institutions can be built to prevent excesses and poor judgment of those in political leadership.
Confucianism: No need to focus on laws and institutions.  Instead focus on the virtue those in leadership, especially those at the top and virtuous actions will flow downward to the grassroots of the state.
Libertarianism: The state can do no right ergo its powers must be reduced.

AMLO's solution to corruption seems to be applying the classical Chinese Confucianism model starting with himself.  If it works Confucius and Mencius will be very happy.  I doubt it will.

[jaichind]

For Lower House races if you look at the average vote share by party by seat allocation where the 3 blocs had alliances you can now learn more about the seat allocation strategy.

Seat        PAN    PRD   MC      Total
PAN        24.79  3.18  3.35    31.32   
PRD        12.90  9.97  3.09    25.11   
MC         15.62  4.09 10.21    29.92   
(I could not the the seat allocation for Chiapas since that was not in their PAN-PRD-MC contract with INE but something they added later on)         

Seat    MORENA   PT   PES      Total
MORENA 38.43  3.86  2.38    44.67 
PT           37.22  4.99  2.35    44.57 
PES         38.43  3.87  2.77    45.06 

Seat        PRI    PVEM PANAL   Total
PRI         21.48  4.18  2.75    28.14 
PVEM      18.40  9.34  2.62    30.36 
PANAL     18.58  3.79  3.45    25.82 

It seems in the  PAN-PRD-MC  bloc the seat allocation were clearly related to the relative strength of the parties within the different seats.  In terms of winnability it seems the PRD got the short end of the bargain but that might also be related to the fact that in seats of relative PRD strength PRD lost a lot of ground to MORENA.

In the  MORENA-PT-PES alliance it seems the seats were mostly handed out randomly without regard to relative party strength with a slight bias toward PT getting seats where it was slightly stronger in.  In terms of   winnability it seems pretty equal for all 3 parties.  Pretty much adds to the argument that the PT and PES candidates were mostly MORENA candidates to get around the 8% ergo ALMO can afford to be so generous with PT and PES.

In the PRI-PVEM-PANAL alliance PVEM got seats it was relatively stronger in and to some extend PRI and PANAL as well.  PVEM drove a hard bargain and got more winnable seats while PANAL with the least negotiation leverage got the worst seats. 

[jaichind]

For the House seat distribution I found some data bugs where I mislabeled a MORENA and PES winner respectively as a PT candidates.  MY PR seat allocation now matches what INE has announced as the PR seat distribution. Now chart which mostly matches Pauta Politica although they still have one more seat for PRI and one less seat for PVEM.

                                Vote share       FPTP seats    PR seats     Total Seats
MORENA-PT-PES          45.42%             218              89              307
 MORENA                    38.82%             105              85              190
 PT                              4.09%               57                4                61
 PES                             2.51%              56                0                56 (party disbanded)
PAN-PRD-MC               28.78%              68              63               131
 PAN                           18.69%              42              41                83
 PRD                             5.49%               9               12                21
 MC                              4.60%              17              10                 27
PRI-PVEM-PANAL          24.80%             14              48                62
 PRI                             17.23%              6              37                 43
 PVEM                           4.99%               6              11                 17
 PANAL                         2.58%               2                0                  2 (party disbanded)
IND                              1.00%