Mexican Elections 2017-18

[ag]

Assorted news.

Next year there will be elections in only 4 states - but some very important ones. Mexico State, Coahuila and Nayarit will have the general gobernatorial/legislative/municipal polls. In addition, the newly-PAN-governed Veracruz will have the municipals.

The main attraction, of course, is Mexico State, our largest state. PRI has never lost power there. In fact, the old dedazo system of the outgoing governor choosing his successor has never been abandoned. The state has been, traditionally, in the hands of the Atlacomulco group (to which Peña Nieto belongs). However, in 2012, then governor Peña Nieto sacrificed it in order to obtain the national presidency: at the last moment, instead of the cousin everybody was expecting him to "touch", he chose the mayor of Ecatepec, Eruviel Avila from an entirely different faction of the PRI. At this point, it will first have to be  resolved if Atlacomulco resumes the normal service (in which case, probably, the nomination would go to Alfredo del Mazo, who should have been the nominee the last time), or if Governor Eruviel manages to keep it with his "eastern suburbs" allies. If I had to bet, I would bet on the former - though recent performance by Peña makes one doubt.  However, PRI itself might not get to keep the state as easily as it has: especially if it fails to unite. PAN is going in for real this time. The most likely candidate will be the former presidential nominee Josefina Vasquez Mota. It will be fun.

In other news, an early poll by Mitofsky for the 2018 presidential election, has PRI-PVEM at 33% of those choosing to declare a voting intention followed by PAN at 32% (this is before the Trump visit). Morena is the choice of 16% and PRD closes the pack with 11%. However, 39% of those polled have not expressed a preference at all. It is far too early.

[AndyHogan14]

Shocked that the PRI is leading (even if it is clearly within the margin of error) when EPN is so utterly despised. I lament that Mexico doesn't have a true center-left party because the PRI is centrist (and corrupt) and the PRD is bloody insane (maybe they've changed, but the whole AMLO shadow presidency after the 2006 election left a bad taste in my mouth). I fully expect PAN to win the next presidential election, but it should be an interesting few years...

[ag]

Shocked that the PRI is leading (even if it is clearly within the margin of error) when EPN is so utterly despised. I lament that Mexico doesn't have a true center-left party because the PRI is centrist (and corrupt) and the PRD is bloody insane (maybe they've changed, but the whole AMLO shadow presidency after the 2006 election left a bad taste in my mouth). I fully expect PAN to win the next presidential election, but it should be an interesting few years...

Well, the poll was taken before the Trump visit

In any case, Peña will not be on the ballot. Nor, likely, will it be anybody from his faction of the PRI. Remember, PRI is the Grand Old Party of Mexican politics. There are many factions and many influence networks involved here. A lot of people have always supported it. It rarely goes too low. If anything, it is a very weak performance for it.

The rump PRD, after the AMLO defection, is somewhat corrupt, but also more reasonable.

[ag]

So, some news.

The biggest polls this year are in Mexico State. It looks like a 5-way race, with at least three (and, may be, all five) having chances of victory.

The only alliances concluded by the alliance deadline are the usual PRI-PVEM-PANAL and PRD-PT combines. PAN tried to get it with the PRD, and the national leadership pushed for it, but the state party organization said no.

So far, three of the main candidates are well-defined. PRD will run, it seems, Alejandro Encinas - the former Communist and an acting mayor of Mexico City after AMLO resigned to run for presidency. He also ran last time, if my memory serves me right. He is a decent enough man, but old and not very inspiring. And the PRD is in doldrums.

Morena, as usual, has no difficulty figuing out candidates: the decisions are centralized there (in the old Mexican tradition, it is a perfect internal democracy with the electorate size limited to 1: AMLO). They are running Texcoco Mayor Delfina Gomez.

A third candidate that is showing up in the polls is an independent: Isidro Pastor, who is, basically, the representative of the Ecatepec (Gov. Eruviel Avila´s) wing of PRI, who is running because, it seems, the Atlacomulco clan is in control of the state party and determined to return to governing after the 6-year hiatus.

PAN and PRI are still thinking. It seems, Josefina Vasquez Mota, who ran for presidency in 2015, may enter. If she does and gets the nod, she has a chance. Other PANistas are, probably, not very likely to win. PRI is still thinking about which of the del Mazo infantes of the Atlocomulco dynasty is going to be "touched".

[ag]

Anyway, here is the party voting intention from yesterday's El Financiero poll (in brackets change from theri poll two months ago,  in Nov. 2016)

PRI 24% (-8)
PAN 22% (+2)
Morena 18% (+1)
PRD 15% (nil)
Independent 9% (+3)
PT 3% (nil)
PES 3% (+1)
PANAL 3% (+2)
PVEM 2% (-1)
MC 1% (nil, and they are not, actually, running a candidate)

[ag]

If names of candidates are given, it becomes very volatile: candidates matter

Josefina Vasquez Mota, PAN 33%
Alfredo del Mazo, PRI-PVEM-PANAL 21%
Delfina Gomez, Morena 20%
Alejandro Encinas, PRD 14%
Isidro Pastor, Ind 12%

Alfredo del Mazo PRI-PVEM-PANAL 26%
Delfina Gomez, Morena 24%
Jose Luis Duran, PAN 20%
Alejandro Encinas, PRD 16%
Isidro Pastor, Ind. 14%

Delfina Gomez, Morena 28%
Jose Luis Duran, PAN 22%
Ernesto Nemer PRI-PVEM-Panal 19%
Alejandro Encinas 18%
Isidro Pastor 13%

[ag]

As for the national elections, Reforma has recently had a nationwide voting intention poll for 2018. These are January numbers, with change from December in brackets. Trump is really making a difference here (though, one should ad, so does the rize in gas prices)

Morena 27% (+5)
PAN 24% (-3)
PRI 17% (-5)
PRD 10% (+5)
Independent 10% (-1)
MC 4% (-1)
PVEM 2% (-1)
others 6% (+1)

EPN's numbers are awful. His performance is approved by 12% and disapproved by 86%.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --

Former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Morena has 33% of voter preference, up from 29% in Nov., according to poll on website of El Financiero.

Former First Lady Margarita Zavala of the PAN follows w/27% of preference, down from prior 29%

Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong of PRI in 3rd w/preference of 20%, down from prior 26%

Mexico City Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera of PRD has 10% vs prior 9%

----------------------------

I wonder with all the stuff Trump will be up to it would only polarize the Mexico electorate and push support toward AMLO.

[ag]

(Bloomberg) --

Former presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of Morena has 33% of voter preference, up from 29% in Nov., according to poll on website of El Financiero.

Former First Lady Margarita Zavala of the PAN follows w/27% of preference, down from prior 29%

Interior Minister Miguel Angel Osorio Chong of PRI in 3rd w/preference of 20%, down from prior 26%

Mexico City Mayor Miguel Angel Mancera of PRD has 10% vs prior 9%

----------------------------

I wonder with all the stuff Trump will be up to it would only polarize the Mexico electorate and push support toward AMLO.

Of course it does. At this point it is AMLO´s race to lose. Though, let us not forget that he managed to do it back in 2006, before his negatives were all solidified. Still, it is going to be very hard to avoid having him elected in 2018.

[Vosem]

So AMLO is clearly running, in this case? Your post about the names of the candidates seemed to imply to me that his party was likely to run someone else (this Delfina Gomez, for instance) as a stalking horse.

[ag]

So AMLO is clearly running, in this case? Your post about the names of the candidates seemed to imply to me that his party was likely to run someone else (this Delfina Gomez, for instance) as a stalking horse.

He is running for president: that is the one reason Morena exists. Delfina Gomez is running for Mexico State Governor.

[Vosem]

So AMLO is clearly running, in this case? Your post about the names of the candidates seemed to imply to me that his party was likely to run someone else (this Delfina Gomez, for instance) as a stalking horse.

He is running for president: that is the one reason Morena exists. Delfina Gomez is running for Mexico State Governor.

Oh, I misunderstood what those polls were of, in that case.

Can you give me (or send me a link: an article in Spanish is no problem) a run-down of who the parties are likely or possible to nominate, and what the differences between the candidates are? I understand the identities of the Mexican parties from having followed prior elections, but I don't have such a knowledge of the country that I know about individual politicians, besides very famous ones like AMLO.

[ag]

Can you give me (or send me a link: an article in Spanish is no problem) a run-down of who the parties are likely or possible to nominate, and what the differences between the candidates are? I understand the identities of the Mexican parties from having followed prior elections, but I don't have such a knowledge of the country that I know about individual politicians, besides very famous ones like AMLO.

Very simply, left to right

1. Morena - AMLO, nothing to talk about.

2. PRD/PT could nominate Mancera (Mexico City mayor). Otherwise, they will either go into a coalition with Morena (unlikely) or PAN (more likely). If the latter happens, PT might go to AMLO on its own.

3. Convergencia. Who knows? Might gow with AMLO, might go with Mancera, might go on its own.

3. PRI (with PVEM and PANAL, most likely). A whole zoo of candidates. EPN wants Videgaray (the foreign secretary), but that guy is literally toxic and EPN is not strong enough. A softer (and less toxic) version would be Meade (the treasury secretary), but he has no base in the party whatsoever. Osorio Chong (the interior secretary, formerly governor of Hidalgo) is the natural successor, and he has strength of his own. And, of course, there is Manlio Fabio Beltrones: having resigned as the party Secretary General after the election defeats last year, he is not responsible for the administration's disasters - and he is the smartest guy in Mexican politics, for sure. Quite a frightening character, actually.

4. PAN. There are three semi-declared candidates at this point. Most realistic is Margarita Zavala, Calderon's wife (and a former Congresswoman on her own). She is tainted by her husband, of course, but she is the only one in the party with both ambitions and charisma. Ricardo Anaya, the party leader right now, also wants it. He is, actually, quite good, but he has the appearance, gravitas and charisma of an overgrown nerdy college freshman. Finally, there is Rafael Moreno del Valle, who has just finished his term as the governor of Puebla. Alas, he is a fool.

5. PES. Who knows (or cares)?

6. Independents. A few are not unlikely. Say, the governor of Nuevo Leon ("El Bronco") could run (though it is too early in his term).

[jaichind]

Latest Mexico State poll



Three way tie

PRI-PVEM-PANAL   29
MORENA              28
PAN                    25
PRD                    11
PT                       4



Problem for PRI is a large bloc of voters will never vote PRI so in the end there will be anti-PRI tactical voting.

Which means if the race becomes 1-on-1 PRI loses badly to PAN and MORENA separately

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll



Neck-to-neck

PRI-PVEM-PANAL      40
PAN-PES                 36
MORENA                 13
Independent             5
PRD                        4

[jaichind]

Another Coahuila poll with PRI further ahead as MORENA surges



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      41
PAN-PES                 30
MORENA                 16
Independent             5
PRD                        4

Same poll but asking just party support

[jaichind]

In Mexico state it seems PRD-PT formed an alliance which boosted their position



Story is the same.  PRI back ahead but mostly because MORENA and PRD-PT taking anti-PRI votes

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   28
PAN                             26
MORENA                      22
PRD-PT                        17
Independent                  7

What the PRI should hope for is that there are now potentially 3 viable anti-PRI candidates and that this might be a repeat of Oaxaca in 2016 where PRI with a very low vote share won a 4 way election.

The independent candidate seems to be a PRI rebel

This poll shows the strength of the Left.  MORENA+PRD+PT = 39

[jaichind]

Financiero poll for 2018 President

PAN(Zavala)                   32  (+5)
MORENA(AMLO)             29  (-4)
PRI (Chong)                   27  (+7)
PRD(Mancera)                  8  (-2)
Ind(El Bronco)                 4   (-6)

[jaichind]

MORENA surging in Mexico state



PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   32
PAN                             26
MORENA                      26
PRD                             12
Independent                  3  (PRI rebel)
PT                                 1

Seems like PRD-PT alliance is off which lead to more Left support going to MORENA while PRI rebel loses support to the official PRI candidate.  If PAN-PRD can form an alliance they can be favored to win in a three way battle just like in Veracruz last year.

[jaichind]

SDPnoticias poll of Mexico state has MORENA in first place



MORENA                      31.2
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES   24.7
PAN                             18.4
PRD                               9.4

[jaichind]

At the national level for 2018 it seems to be a 3 way tie between PRI PAN and MORENA at the generic candidate level




PRI            25
PAN           25
MORENA    25
PRD           10

Although if asked by candidate AMLO leads 26-21-19 over PAN and PRI

[jaichind]

El Universal poll for Mexico state



PAN decline with PRI and PRD gaining

PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    21.0% (+1.2%)
MORENA                     17.4%  (-0.4%)
PAN                            14.1% (-5.5%)
PRD                            12.7% (+1.3%)

[jaichind]

Nayarit poll.  PRI decline continues and turning into a PAN-PRD vs MORENA battle



MORENA   25.7%
PAN-PRD  25.3%
PRI          16.8%
Ind.          5.4%  (PRI rebel)
MC            4.7%

[jaichind]

Parametria has maps of the distribution of governorship in 1989 2006 2012 and 2017

[jaichind]

Reforma poll for Mexico state



MORENA       29
PRI              28
PAN             22
PRD             14
PT                 3



1-on-1 battle shows PRI has a low ceiling

MORENA 45 PRI  33
MORENA 45 PAN 30
PAN 40 PRI 30