Mexican Elections 2017-18

[jaichind]

Consulta Mitofsky April poll for Mexico State, MORENA ahead



MORENA                     24.4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL-PES    23.6
PAN                           14.9
PRD                           13.6
PT                               1.0

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll - tie



PRI-PVEM-PANAL      36
PAN                       36
MORENA                 16
Independent             5   (PRI rebel)
PRD                        4
PT                          2

[jaichind]

El Financiero May poll for Mexico State has PAN in free-fall to the benefit of the non-PRI candidates.



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   32 (nc)
MORENA              29  (+3)
PAN                    18  (-8)
PRD                    15 (+3)
PT                        3 (+2)

[jaichind]

Diario Portal poll of Mexico state has a 3 way tie for second



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27
MORENA              23
PRD                    21 
PAN                    20   

[Zanas]

All these elections are FPTP, aren't they ?

[jaichind]

All these elections are FPTP, aren't they ?

Yes.  FPTP

[jaichind]

More Mexico state polls for early May

El Universal


PRI-PVEM-PANAL   19.1
MORENA                17.5
PRD                       10.7
PAN                       10.4

Seems to fit other polls with PRI vs MORENA battle for first and PRD vs PAN in a battle for third.


Some media poll from Al Momento has MORENA heading for a historic victory


MORENA                35.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.5
PAN                       15.8
PRD                       12.4
PT                           3.1
Independent            2.9  (PRI rebel)

[Velasco]

Wow, the Mexico State election is gonna be extremely interesting.

_{On a side note, it's funny to notice that someone whose father is called Del Mazo and his mother Maza is running for governorship in the former EPN fiefdom.}

[jaichind]

Carlos Campos, of the company MassiveCaller, has been doing tacking polls.  It has

Mexico State very close between PRI and MORENA, Coahuila with PRI with a fighting chance if they can get votes back from the PRI rebel and Nayarit totally gone for PRI


Mexico State
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.4
MORENA                24.5
PAN                       20.5
PRD                         8.5





Coahuila
PAN-PES                33.1
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   28.4
MORENA                  8.1
PRI rebel                 6.6


Nayarit
PAN-PRD-PT          39.9
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   22.4
MORENA                 8.5
PRI rebel                 7.4

[jaichind]

Looks like PAN and PRD will form an alliance in 2018 Presidential race.  It does not seem to cover Mexico State in 2017 where both PAN and PRD are being pushed to the second tier by PRI and MORENA. 

Somehow I do not think this will play out well for PRD as the likely result is the Left vote will drift more from PRD to MORENA.  PAN seems to suggest by this alliance that it cannot take down AMLO by itself.  On the other hand PAN-PRD alliance did work out well in many 2016 state governor races.

[jaichind]

Parámetro has PRD surging in Mexico state



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   27.7
PRD                       23.7
MORENA                23.2
PAN                       17.4

[jaichind]

Coahuila poll by El Financiero has PRI ahead



PRI-PVEM-PANAL   38
PAN-PES                32
MORENA                19
PRI rebel                  7

[jaichind]

El Financiero Late May poll in Mexico State has PAN in free fall and PRD surging



PRI-PVEM-PANAL  34 (+2)
MORENA              29  (-)
PRD                    19 (+4)
PAN                    13  (-5)

It seems the PAN-PRD alliance has backfired on PAN in Mexico State to the benefit of PRD.  It seems that this is also working to the advantage of PRI.  MORENA has been pressuring PRD to drop out in Mexico State on the premise that PRD is way behind and that a tactical vote for MORENA is a vote to oust PRI and install a Left alternative.  With PRD surging this argument goes away and helps keep PRI ahead.

[jaichind]

If Mexico’s Ruling Party Can’t Win Here, It’s Probably Doomed

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2017-05-26/if-mexico-s-ruling-party-can-t-win-here-it-s-probably-doomed

Article points out that if MORENA wins Mexico State then AMLO will be the most likely winner of 2018 Prez election.  On the other hand it quotes a political analyst who predicts that PRI will win by 3%-4% due to the split of the anti-PRI vote between MORENA PRD and PAN.

[jaichind]

Hora Cero poll for Mexico state has MORENA well ahead



MORENA              34.0
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  27.5
PRD                     15.9
PAN                     13.2
PRI rebel                6.5
PT                          2.7

[jaichind]

Different Mexico State polls might disagree on who has the lead, PRI vs MORENA.  But it seems all of them are converging on PAN being pushed to 4th place or struggling to stay in 3rd place.  At the beginning of the campaign PAN's Mota (who was the PAN candidate for President in 2012) in first place. The PAN collapse is quite extraordinary.

[jaichind]

Mexico state poll has PRI and MORENA neck-to-neck
 


MORENA              25.18
PRI                      24.87
PRD                     18.06
PAN                     12.61

This poll has PAN in 3rd place but shows the same pattern of collapse over the last couple of weeks as PRD surges.  

Same poll has PRI ahead if coalitions of PVEM-PANAL-PES with PRI are asked


 
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  25.32
MORENA              24.59
PAN                     18.26
PRD                     11.47

Of course which bloc will people never vote for



PRI is way at the top.  This indicates that last minute tactical voting to block PRI is quite possible.  Most likely PRD->MORENA or even PAN->MORENA

[jaichind]

Nayarit poll still has PAN-PRD-PT alliance way ahead



PAN-PRD-PT          43.7
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   24.9
MORENA               13.3
PRI rebel               11.1

[jaichind]

Indicadores SC poll on Mexico State has MORENA ahead and PAN falling



MORENA              37.4
PRI-PVEM-PANAL  26.3
PRD                     16.3
PAN                     13.3
PRI rebel                2.9
PT                          1.2

[Maxwell]

Are polls in Mexico generally not reliable?

[jaichind]

Are polls in Mexico generally not reliable?

I think they are all over the place and the quality seems to vary.

[jaichind]

Back in 2011 the results of these 3 states were in terms of non-null vote share.  Of course this was a the peak of PRI popularity after 11 years of PAN rule where anti-incumbency was clearly building up.


Mexico State
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   65.1%
PRD-PT-MC            22.0%
PAN                      12.9%


Coahuila
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   61.5%
PAN                       36.0%
PT                           1.6%
PRD                         1.0%


Nayarit
PRI-PVEM-PANAL   46.9%
PAN                      39.4%
PRD                      11.1%
PT-MC                     2.1%

The current polls coming out of these states shows the extend of the fall of PRI support.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Looks like the PT guy dropped out in favor of Delfina Gómez in Mexico State. http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/metropoli/edomex/2017/05/27/delfina-suma-apoyo-del-prd-pt-y-sindicatos

He doesn't have much support but it might not take much to put her over the edge.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The National Indigenous Congress (CNI) has chosen activist and traditional medicine practitioner Marichuy Patricio Martínez as their candidate for the 2018 presidential election. http://www.sistemamichoacano.tv/noticias/22-nacional/18257-marichuy-patricio-la-candida-indigena-para-el-2018

[jaichind]

The National Indigenous Congress (CNI) has chosen activist and traditional medicine practitioner Marichuy Patricio Martínez as their candidate for the 2018 presidential election. http://www.sistemamichoacano.tv/noticias/22-nacional/18257-marichuy-patricio-la-candida-indigena-para-el-2018

My understanding is that this "Indian Governance Council" is just a front organization of the Zapatistas.  Of course because the council is not a registered political party, it may need signatures to get Patricio on the ballot.